Betting Football Free Pick - October 31, 2009

We had a decent Saturday last week going 4-3 and look to build upon that with seven picks this Saturday. I also have seven Upset Alerts. As always, good luck to you!

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Mississippi at Auburn (Saturday 10/31 12:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Mississippi -4.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Auburn offense looked like the real deal when they opened the season with four wins. They piled up the yardage and points, averaging 45.3 points per game in the process. But then the schedule got more difficult, and the points began to disappear. To put the drop in perspective, the Tigers offense that was averaging 45+ has taken their last three games to score 47. While Ole Miss was getting ink with their Runnin’ Rebels offense, it is the defense that has been playing good -  solid as a rock. They have allowed just 302 yards per game, ranked No. 20 in the country, and a stingy 13.6 points per game. The Auburn defense is facing a challenge as the offense stalls. They are spending more time on the field, ranking No. 74 out of 120 teams, and in the defensive-tough SEC that ranks second from the bottom. The Ole Miss offense struggled early, but behind QB Jevon Snead, they have found their legs producing 39 ppg in the last two. They will certainly will find some room against the soft Tigers defense. The Rebels are not shy on the road where they own a 9-2 ATS mark in their last 11, and have covered 20 of their last 27. The wheels are falling off for the Tigers as they are 2-12 ATS after a 20+ point straight-up loss and have taken the donut 0-7 ATS after their last seven straight up losses. The Rebels can "D" up and that has proven fatal for the Tigers. Ole Miss gets the call in this one.

The Cornhuskers have thrown up a pair of lemons in their last two outings, dropping games to Texas Tech and Iowa State as the offense was grounded. The good news for the Cornhuskers is that the Big-12 North shows just one team with a single loss - Kansas State. The Huskers still have a head-to-head meeting with the Wildcats, so expect them to be angry and take it out on a struggling Baylor team here. The Bears have some serious QB issues. After do-everything Robert Griffin went down with an injury, replacement Blake Szymanski has a shoulder injury and may not play here vs. Nebraska. As a result, Nick Florence will likely continue seeing time as the Bears signal caller. The QB change has left the Bears offense-less as they have produced 7 points twice and 10 points in their last three games, while allowing over 30 per game. The Bears are falling fast and after a double-digit home loss, they are just 7-19 ATS and have gotten the money just once in their last six as a home dog. They are also 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games vs. teams that allow under 290 yards per game. Nebraska is ready to put one on someone, and the Bears are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Nebraska gets the call.

The Hurricanes may not be up to the level of the National Championship teams of the past, but the program is definitely on an uptick, entering this one at 5-2. The Hurricanes have lost to Virginia Tech and Clemson, and already own big wins over Oklahoma, Florida State and Georgia Tech. They are going to be angry and ready to prove something after dropping the last game to Clemson. The Hurricanes are averaging over 30 points per game and are led by dynamic QB Jacory Harris, who is passing for 9.4 yards per attempt. Their team speed is something that Wake simply can't match up with. The Demon Deacons are struggling offensively right now as they posted just 10 vs. Navy and a 3-spot vs. Clemson in their last two games. Those two losses saw Wake total just 486 yards of offense. The Canes defense is currently ranked No. 34 in the country, and Wake will have a difficult time moving the ball here against a very quick and athletic defense. Then Canes have fared well on the road where they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road tilts. And, the Deacons have no bark as a home dog dropping their last four. I like Miami to get the win and cover in this one.

The Gators are well on their way to a showdown in the SEC Championship game with Alabama, but still have some business to take care of as they will face the Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville. What was supposed to be a lights-out offense with Tim Tebow returning has taken a step back especially when he suffered a concussion early on. That has not been a problem for the Gators as the defense has been enormous, allowing just 10 points per game. The Bulldogs are certainly not the same team they were a year ago and have taken their lumps as they have already allowed three SEC teams to hang 37+ on them. I see no reason why a healthier Tebow-led Gators team can't approach those numbers in this one. The young Georgia offense that lost QB Matt Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno is retooling and has already produced 20 points or less in four games, and they won't find any room against this iron-clad Gator 11. The Bulldogs are a money burning 4-12 ATS in their last 16 and the Gators have now posted an impressive 18-4 ATS mark against teams with a winning record. Urban Meyer still hasn't forgiven Mark Richt for that classless goal-line celebration in 2007 and he will not let off the gas pedal here. I expect a focused superb effort from his team. Florida is 14-5 ATS as a favorite since last season and 9-1 ATS vs. winning teams over that same span. The Gators are too strong on both sides of the ball and they get the win and cover here.

The Rams were supposed to struggle this year, but when they knocked off Colorado and Nevada early the expectations began to rise. Then reality set in. They have now lost five straight games and simply have not been competitive in their last two. Air Force always seems to put out a good team as their triple-option creates a different look, one that teams have very little practice for which to practice. This is a different type of Air Force team - one that can really play some defense. The Rams will struggle to move the ball here. The Falcons have not allowed more than 20 ppg all season despite playing a schedule that includes Big-10 Minnesota, Navy, Utah and TCU. Two of those teams, TCU and Navy, average over 30 ppg. The Rams offense was grounded against good defensive teams, scoring just 17 vs. Utah and six against TCU. The defense has now allowed 36.6 ppg in their last five. Under Troy Calhoun, the Academy has gone 15-6 ATS in conference games. Air Force is clearly the superior team here, so the Falcons get the call.

Western Kentucky has lost 21 straight games to FBS teams, while North Texas isn't much ahead of them at 2-17 over their last 19. I’m not sure under any circumstances a team that has won two games should be a double-digit chalk at anytime, but here we are. Yes, the Hilltopers are a bad team, but that may be working to our advantage here. This line gets a bumb because Western Kentucky hasn't won in 21 games. But, it must be noted that the Hilltoppers lost to North Texas by one point two years ago, and last year led them going into the fourth quarter. So, the distance between these teams isn't as great as the line posted would make you believe. I'm grabbing the points in what is a winless team overlay and backing the Hilltoppers here.

The Bruins offense certainly isn't going to put many teams on notice, but the defense has been pretty good (better than Oregon State's). The Beavers have no right being posted a double-digit favorite as they stand at 4-3 and have dropped three of their last five. Their biggest win over a FBS team this season has been by 11 points. While the Bruins offense isn't explosive, they should find enough room to put up some points here against a Beavers defense allowing 30+ the last five games. Over the years, the Bruins have been at their best when coming off of a loss, as in their next game they have taken the money in 20 of their last 28. They are also tough after a dismal offensive showing going 8-3 ATS after scoring 20 points or less. This has been a favorable matchup for the Bruins in recent times as they have now gone 5-1 ATS vs. the Beavers in the last six meetings. This is too many points here, so I'm going with UCLA in this one.

Results: 3-4

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• View our football prediction here.
• Check out our updated college football prior predictions.
• Hop over to our college football blog here.
• Take a look at our college football sportsbook reviews here.
• Updated today: Football Game Analysis.
• Hop over to our 2009 football prior pick season results here.
• View our updated football against-the-spread standings.
• View our updated How we pick college football winners.
• View our college football odds here.
• Read our 2009 college football predictions here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-22-2009
The Chippewas boast the best overall record in the MAC at 6-0, as well as the best record in the Conference at 4-0. They will face a Bowling Green team that has suffered just one loss in the conferenc...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-21-2009
The Golden Hurricane will bring the nation's leading offense into the Sun Bowl for a Conference USA clash on ESPN. Tulsa isn't quite as offensive as they have been in the past, but they still ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-15-2009
This is an intriguing game. The Hawkeyes remain one of only eight unbeaten teams in NCAA Football. They've won ten straight games dating back to last season. They face the Badgers who have just on...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-08-2009
Eastern Michigan suffered a serious blow when QB Andy Schmitt went down for the season with an injury and they simply aren't the type of program that can pull another competent QB right off t...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-06-2009
Troy has the potential to be a little flat in this game as they won a big game on the road their last time on the field vs. Arkansas State - the team that was supposed to challenge them for the Sun Be...