Football Picks - November 01, 2008

We had an awesome weekend in football last week, going 10-2 overall (5-2 in college, 5-0 in NFL). On the season we are winning in both sports. This Saturday we have eight picks...

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CFB	10-7 last 17 picks	59%	+$710
NBA	3-2 Season-to-Date	60%	+$220
NFL	18-9 last 27 picks	67%	+$2640
NHL	6-2 last 8 picks	75%	+$520
TOTAL			+$4090

 

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Air Force at Army (Saturday 11/01 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 40.5 -110

These teams meet every season, and there are few surprises as both like to employ the triple option on offense. Army, after a slow start, has been really effective running it in their last four games. Air Force comes in at 6-2, their best mark entering this matchup since the '98-99 season. This is a game that has been dominated by Air Force as they have won 10 of the last 11, and the last five played on the road. This Air Force team has not scored less than 24 points vs. Army in any of the past 11 games, having averaged 33.6 ppg. Army is the team that has struggled to find the scoreboard the last two years as they have managed 17 points in the last two games total. But, this is a maturing Army team that is really coming together offensively. It more resembles the Army teams that put up 22.2 ppg in the six games prior to the last two years. With the effectiveness Air Force has had against Army and the Army triple option finding the end-zone more, I look for this one to go OVER a rather low total - a total that has been topped by these teams in six of the last eight meetings.

There is value on the Wildcats here, based on their 63-5 loss last week. Last week they were a completely depleted team physically and emotionally. They were a 25 point underdog coming off three straight against ranked opponents, and had to face Florida without their top two running backs and top wide reciever. While Kentucky remains a bit banged up, they went into Starksville two years ago and won. And, Mississippi State has not been a good team in the spot of a home favorite where they have been 0-6 ATS in their last six. The Wildcats have advantages across the board in this one, as the ofense ranks higher, the defense ranks higher, and perhaps most importantly, their special teams rank higher (#24 to Mississippi State's #88). I like the Wildcats as a live dog here. It seems like when two poor offenses meet, the odds-makers over-adjust especially late in the year. Teams that have an offense that produce 280-330 yards per game have played OVER in 44 of the last 60 meetings once we get past the mid-way point in the season. That is 73.3% of the time, when the total is in this low range. I will also back the OVER in this one.

This Aggies team is definitely on the improve, having served notice last week. They went to Fresno State and scored with :38 seconds left to take a 28-27 lead, only to watch a 58 yard FG go through the goal posts to keep them out of the win column. Hawaii still has the aura of the high-scoring machines they were under June Jones, but this year's version has been held to 17 or less in half of their games! They have been outscored on the road by 25 ppg against some quality competition. It's no wonder this team does bad on the road - they have made seven long-haul flights over the past seven weeks! They returned just four starts each on offense and defense from last season and clearly aren't a shell of what they were and laying seven here is too much. The Aggies have been blown out themselves vs. top competition, but they have been an effective team at home where they have covered in each of their last three. I still think there is some spillover value in the line, from Hawaii's past success, and I will take the home dog getting a full touchdown here.

The Owls have really struggled producing points on the season as they have been held to 14 points or less in five games. They have failed to find the end-zone in three of those five games. Thankfully they have managed to play good defense to keep them hanging around most games, as outside of their mis-matched game with Penn State, they have allowed just 14.3 ppg and they have now played to five consecutive UNDERs. Even if you include the Penn State game,Temple ranks in the top 25 in points allowed. Navy has scored plenty this season, but when they have faced teams ranked in the top 25 in points allowed (Ball State and Wake Forest), they have not produced more than 24 points. With Temple's offense nowhere in sight, and Navy's low 20s performances against similar defenses, the value here lies in the UNDER.

The Illini have not been nearly as potent as they were last year and as the schedule toughens, the flaws have been shining through. The Illini have managed just two wins in their last five games, and those were to the weaker teams in the Big-10 in Indiana and Michigan. The problem is they can't stop teams with a good running game, which is exactly what Iowa brings to the table. Illinois is allowing 152 rushing yards per game and Iowa is piunding the ball for 155 a game. This is simply a bad matchup for Illinois. The Illini have yet to hold any opponent to less than 17 points on the season, while Iowa has been spectacular on defense allowing 11.5 ppg on the season. The Hawkeyes, who have won two straight and covered four of five, have had two weeks to prepare for this one. Meanwhile, this will be the Illini's sixth straight game, and the lack of depth is taking its toll. I like teams that play defense and can run the ball on the road. Makes the Hawkeyes a live dog here.

Syracuse has certainly fallen hard from the annual Bowl trips they were making not very long ago. They now have gained the reputation of a loser, and not to many are interested in backing them. Louisville, on the other hand, has been the team ushering in Bowl bids of late with a potent offense. But the 2008 version is built a bit different. They are better defensively, and much less explosive offensively, and run a lot more than past Louisville teams. Yet the perception has not taken firm hold yet. Syracuse is a much improved team this year, but the gap has been left so wide, the improvements have gone largely unnoticed. This team is more like the 2006-07 team that only won four games, but held their own at home vs BSC and conference teams. That team won one such game and lost the other three by 7, 10 and 15 points. Last year the Cuse lost their home games vs BCS teams by margins of 21, 31, 24, 41, 21 and 32 points. This year they lost by 10, and even went on the road to Morgantown and lost by just 11. I'm not overlooking the beating they got at Penn State, but that is a whole other level of competition. Louisville amazingly has not faced a BCS team on the road the entire season, and is off a big emotional win vs. South Florida. They also have a big game with Pitt on the road next week so this is a perfect letdown sandwich spot. Remember last year an 0-3 Syracuse team that had lost their first three by almost 30 per game went to Louisville and caught the Cards in a similar spot, winning outright as a 37 point dog. I'll back Syracuse who should be able to hang around at home.

Here we have yet another huge game in the Big-12, as the #1 Longhorns travel to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech. The Longhorns have had the toughest stretch of four games, perhaps, than any team in college football history. They have played their last three against unbeaten teams in Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State. Tech will be their fourth consecutive game against an unbeaten team, and it will be their first true road game of the four. Tech has had the offense for several years, but now have a defense. It may not be on the same par as the offense, but it is much, much tougher than past units. While Tech has fumbled on the road in the past, a tell-tale sign that this Tech team might be different is their 4-0 mark this year away from home, including a pounding of a solid Jayhawks team last week. This is a very tough spot for Texas, as they have to get it up mentally, emotionally and physically for a fourth straight week. And, for the first time it will have to come without the boost from their home crowd. This team has done a tremendous job avoiding any kind of letdown for three straight weeks, but can they really do it a fourth straight time, on the road? You could see last week the toll beginning to take place as they squeaked by a very good Oklahoma State at home. I think Tech is going to bring a very high level of energy to this one, and the difference between these teams is not that great. I seriously doubt Texas can sustain that kind of energy on the road, and for a fourth consecutive week. Upset alert! Tech covers, and has a good shot at the outright win.

Results: 4-4

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Updated today: NCAA football betting philosophy.
• Read our 2008 NCAA football preview here.
• Check out our updated Football Game-of-Week-Preview.
• Take a look at our college football record here.
• Don't forget to visit our football betting.
• View 2008 football prior pick results here.
• Updated today: college football against-the-spread records.
• Check out our updated college football odds.
• Read our college football betting pick here.
• Read our football blog here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-24-2008
Boise State is again undefeated which seems to be the norm in Boise every year. I don't think this is the same type of team the Broncos have had in the past howeve. Evidence is emerging to back th...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-23-2008
The Mountaineers were supposed to contend for a National Title contender this season, with Pat White and Noel Devine spearheading a big offense. After back-to-back losses to East Carolina and Colorado...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-21-2008
The Bobcats will be playing in their third straight on the road in this one and an offense that has managed under 20 points per game (less the VMI game) has managed only 14 per game when they are in t...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-17-2008
I don't think many would have expected these teams to come into this game with identical 5-1 records, but here they are. Georgia was supposed to run the table and make a Championship appearance. I...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-10-2008
The Gophers are perhaps one of the most improved teams in the country. Last year their lone win came early against Miami Ohio, but this year they are 5-1 and Bowl worthy with a win here. Adam Weber ha...