Free College Football Pick - October 27, 2007

We're off a win last night on Boston College. Looking ahead to Saturday, we've had very good success with big-unit picks this season as we're 14-8 (64%) on our 4 and 5 unit plays including 3-1 on 5-unit selections. On Saturday we have seven picks including a 5-unit selection and some action on some big TV games: Georgia vs. Florida, Mississippi State vs. Kentucky, Ohio vs. Penn State.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Pittsburgh at Louisville (Saturday 10/27 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Louisville -9.5

Defense surely has not been the calling card for this Louisville team, but there are signs that it is coming together. They allowed an average of 40 ppg in weeks 2-4, but have since held good opponents to 10, 21 and 24 in three of the last four weeks. If you consider the Louisville defense bad, then you must consider this Pitt offense equally bad. The Panthers' offense ranks just 90th out of 120 teams and they are averaging 13.5 points per game on the road. In a game where they are going to have to score to stay in it, they may find the going tough. The Pitt defense has been stingy, but they have yet to face a high-octane passing offense. Louisville has passed for nearly twice the yards of any opponent Pitt has seen all year on the road! Brian Brohm does not make mistakes, having accumulated 3,000 yards in the air with 24 TDs and just 6 INT's. Yes, the Cardinals lost last week to Connecticut but the Big East officials admit they blew that one. As a result, we get a bit of line value on this game as Louisville should be a DD favorite. Pitt has historically struggled vs. good passing teams. They are 1-8 ATS vs. teams that complete 58% or better over the last three years and they are 3-12 ATS vs. teams that average 8+ yards per passing attempt in their last 15. Pitt has never been a road warrior either. They are 21-40 ATS when hitting the road after playing at home. Louisville rolls in this one.

Tulane is coming off three consecutive road games having won their last. They have developed into a team that is controlling the line of scrimmage and running the ball with good effectiveness. They have rushed for 848 yards in three road games, and bring that momentum home for this week's clash against Memphis. The Tigers have struggled to stop the run all season allowing 4.5 ypc and 176 ypg. That spells trouble on the road vs. a team that has averaged nearly 200 yards per game and 5.2 ypc. Overall, Memphis is yielding 42 ppg on the road and they will be hard pressed to control the line of scrimmage against this Tulane team. Put a team on the field that averages 190+ on the ground, and had 300+ in their last game, vs. an average rushing defense, and the history says 27-4 ATS to the running team. That not only spells trouble for Memphis, but is convincing enough for us to lay less than a FG at home and ride with Tulane in this one.

It has been a long season for SMU with their only win coming at home against North Texas, who is also 1-6. The Mustangs have been unable to stop anyone this season. They bring a bad defense, ranked 115th in the nation. They now have to try to stop the nation's third best offense on the road. Paul Smith is closing in on 3,000 yards already and has 21 TD passes. SMU is allowing a 50% success rate on third down, and this could end up being a 60-point game for the Tulsa offense. Tulsa has not done well defensively, but games against Oklahoma, Central Florida and BYU taint the numbers somewhat. Brennen Marion has been one of the most explosive recievers in the country averaging 37 yards per catch on 16 receptions with five TDs. There is too much to cover for a team that just can't stop anyone, and this will be the most explosive offense they have seen all season. Tulsa in a romp.

One trend never fails in sports. Teams without the name or reputation get little respect. Here is the perfect example. Kentucky has certainly showed it belongs with the big boys this season. They beat LSU and lost to Florida by just 8. That being said, LSU was a 19 point favorite on the road at Mississippi State and W. Virginia was a 26 point favorite at home vs. this team. What does that say about this line? A team that has showed it is certainly on that level is asked to face a pointspread of half of those other two teams. We'll take it! There is ceratainly a lot of value here, as the Wildcats score 40+ on everyone and has shown its defense is good enough vs. teams outside the Top 25. Mississippi State has shown they can play at home, but stepping up in class on the road has been a problem. All the top teams they have faced have chewed up their defense. LSU scored 45, Tennessee 33, West Virginia 38 and SC 38. This will be the best offense of the bunch, and we would expect Kentucky to reach at least in the 40s. That will be difficult for a team that has averaged under 15 points a game vs. the top teams on its schedule. We would not be surprised to see this covered by halftime, and Kentucky to cruise into the win column, when all is said and done.

Florida has to run the table to have any chance at all to be a BCS Championship contender. Two losses in most seasons would spell instant elimination, but the way this season has gone, they are not done yet. They have all winnable games on the schedule, and it will have to start at home to the Bulldogs. Florida is loaded with speed on offense and with Tebow, they posses a double threat as he is also the leading rusher. Tebow has been superb this season, throwing for 1,700 yards and 17 TDs. But his most impressive number is yards per attempt which sits at around 10. The Gators have another weapon in Brandon James who is averaging over 19 yards per punt return and over 30 on kickoffs. Georgia has not fared well against Florida as Florida has won 15 of the last 17 meetings. The SEC East is also on the line in this one, and we look for Florida to bring their "A" game. For Georgia, on the road vs. a team they have historically struggled against, it's going to be a tough battle . Florida takes control.

No matter what happens to Stanford this season, they can hang their hat on a victory on the road as a 39 point dog to USC. But for us, the other games are what lead us away from them here. That same team that held USC to 23 points has allowed 38, 41, 45and 55 in four other games. They give up 450 yards per game. Oregon State brings in a rugged run defense which has put opponents in a lot of third and longs, resulting in 28 sacks and an overall defensive rank of 23rd in the country. Oregon State has a balanced offense, which is the type of team that can take advantage of a Stanford defense that gets burned frequently. Stanford plays run first, and play action has burned this defense all season, as they have had their safeties caught cheating on numerous occasions. They have given up six TDs of 60 yards or more, and eight of 47 yards or more. We expect Oregon State to exploit this vulnerability with both a competent running game, and a competent passing game. This dog has taken their bite for the season, so we ride the chalk here.

Ohio State controls their own destiny on the road to the BCS Championship game for the second straight year. The Buckeyes have run the table to this point but will face their sternest test on the road vs. Joe Pa's Nitany Lions. The last time Ohio State lost a Big-10 game was to Penn State at Happy Valley 17-10, laying 4 points as they do here. Deja Vu? Yes! This is not the same Ohio State offense we saw last year. That offense ranked 15th in the country after some big time games. This offense ranks 37th, before any big games. Their prior competition includes: Minnesota (#120), Washington (#108), Northwestern (#83), Akron (#75), Purdue (#60) and D-1AA Youngstown State. Those teams are not even close to what they will see in this one. It has been over three years since a Big-10 opponent has put up more than 17 here. The points should again be hard to come by in this one, and this Penn State defense is better than what beat Ohio State here in '05. The fact is, as good as Ohio State has been over the years, they have not walked out of Happy Valley with a win often. Their win total here is just two since 1993 and neither of those wins covers this pointspread as they won by a single point and a FG. We look for the next in a long line of season changing upsets to occur here, so we are riding the Nitany Lions as a very loud home dog.

Results: 1-6

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our 2007 college football pick results here.
• Don't forget to read our football against-the-spread standings here.
• Hop over to our college football Game Preview here.
• Don't forget to read our blog football picks here.
• View football sports book reviews here.
• Check out our updated NCAA football lines.
• Check out NCAA football betting philosophy here.
• Here we show our college football prior predictions.
• Don't forget to read our 2007 NCAA football predictions here.
• Don't forget to read our football prediction here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-25-2007
Well the good news here is that one Top 10 team will NOT lose. In the craziest year in college football in recent memory, the top teams continue to drop like flies. Last week it was #2 USF's turn....

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-19-2007
While having one of these teams at 4-3 and the other at 5-1 may be "normal" at this point in the season, few would have guessed which team would be which. Both teams have been a  big su...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-18-2007
We have watched all the top teams get picked off week after week so far in 2007. Not one preseason Top 10 team still stands undefeated! South Florida has taken advantage of the situation, playing...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-11-2007
How people seem to have forgotten the recent past. Wake is a big home underdog here despite having beaten Florida State the first and only home shutout loss of the Bobby Bowden era (31 years). Was it ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-10-2007
Navy will play the Panthers in Pittsburgh tonight, bringing in the nation's #2 rushing attack (348 yards per game). Navy remains a one dimensional team. They run the triple option a...