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October 25, 2006 |
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darrell,
Thursday night the 10th ranked Clemson Tigers roll into Blacksburg. A new handicapper is soon to be joining the Wunderdog team. Mr. East is well known by many and soon to be well-know by many more. He is a proven handicapper with a unique perspective and very strong track record. More on him next week. For now, he contributes his first pick for us below. The Saturday college football picks will be out by Friday so look for them soon. Good luck to you on Thursday night!
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Note: risk 1% of bankroll per unit. Never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any single pick.
Game: Clemson at Virginia Tech (Thursday 10/26 7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Virginia Tech +5
This is not a vintage Virginia Tech team. They have had two tests to date and have been doubled up, outscored 30-60 by Boston College, and Georiga Tech. Clemson on the otherhand is a missed X-tra point from perfect, and that may be the difference in playing in a national championship game, or a major Bowl. They may be without running back James Davis for this matchup with the Hokies, but are still a formidable opponent. There is something seductive about a VA TECH team that isn't quite of the vintage variety, and there are plenty of statistical evidence that says watch out Tigers! This is a well coached team, and one that isn't afraid to pull out all stops on special teams, a gadget play, a surprise onside kick, that proves to be the equalizer. it also must be known, that when on the big stage in Blacksburg, this team shows up for the big games. Let's take a look back... The 2003 Hokies finished 8-5, but on the big stage took on Miami, FLA as a +4 dog, and won handily 31-7! Amazingly in that game, they were outgained by 158 yds. The 2001 season where the Hokies were less than their vintage self, saw Miami come in again this time the Hokies were a +14, and they lost by just 2. I could rummage through all the good, but not great years of V Tech, and find the same thing. This team performs extremely well on the big stage with a better opponent. The fact is since 1990 they have been a home dog just 11 times, and have cashed those tickets to the tune of 10-1 ATS. A big convincing double revenge win against Georgia Tech, whom the Hokies lost to, puts line value in this play. It is easy to do the "we beat them, they lost to them, so we should beat them." But that simply doesn't work! The answer of course is, Clemson is the better team, the public thinks so as 70%+ are behind them. A closer look shows that it took a 66 yd fumble recovery, and a 72 yd run to get by Wake Forest, and they were locked up with Florida State 20-20 before winning late. We are looking at a Clemson team here that is 30-14 over the last several years, but must be reminded this team is 22-4 at home, and just 8-10 on the road! This is no ordinary road game, this is a bigtime college football environment, against a team with a coach that knows how to win the bigtime game, no matter what type of team he has. The fact is only 4 of Clemsons last 13 road games have resulted in a win greater than 4 points! You can stretch that out to 5 of 17, but then we become to far removed from the team at hand. V Tech comes in rejuvenated off a 36-6 trouncing of a decent S. Miss team, while Clemson comes in off of a highly motivational, emotionally charged game. It is typical for a team coming off a game like that to be off just a bit. So much of this game is motivational, and emotional, and so much comes down to the coach with a better plan, and better preperation. It looks ominous for the Tigers, as they fall in the Blacksburg pit, as many before them have! Take Virginia Tech plus the points in this one.
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