Free Ncaa Football Picks - October 24, 2009

We enter week eight Saturday off a couple of bad weeks and look to turn things back around with seven picks.

Last week we hit a couple of upsets in the Upset Alerts including Iowa and Kentucky which paid out at almost 4-to-1. This week I've got nine upset alerts...

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Central Michigan at Bowling Green (Saturday 10/24 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Bowling Green +8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Chippewas boast the best overall record in the MAC at 6-0, as well as the best record in the Conference at 4-0. They will face a Bowling Green team that has suffered just one loss in the conference, and as such, this is an important game for both teams as it relates to the conference championship. Bowling Green has proven that they can play when they choose to show up, as they had Missouri on the ropes before falling 27-20. And, they already own an impressive 31-14 win over a good Troy team. Outside of the Boise State game, who seems to be steamrolling everyone as usual, no one has beaten this Falcons team by more than a TD. It is no secret that the Falcons are going to air it out. And why not? With QB Tyler Sheehan having already thrown for 2,336 yards and 14 TDs the Falcons can score. They have topped the 30-point mark in each of the last three. Central Michigan has a big win over Michigan State and knows a little about scoring themselves, having put up 48+ three times already. This one should be fun to watch as both teams can put up points in a hurry, but the Chipps are down when they face a team on the road with a losing home record, cashing just one of their last four. The Falcons rise to the occasion as a home dog of 3.5-10 where they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven and have enough offense to hang inside the number here. Bowling Green gets the call.

Miami has had a season to forget as they enter this one with a futile 0-7 mark. They have managed to score just 71 points in the seven games, or just 10 per contest. And they have been a turnover machine. Their four turnovers last week leaves them with an unbelievable -21 on the season in net turnovers. I'm not sure if I’ve ever seen a team play that bad and accumulate those kind of numbers through just seven games - that is an average of -3 a game. It doesn't get much better on the other side of the ball for the Redbirds as their defense is surrendering 35.4 points per game,. Overall they are getting outscored by nearly four TDs per game. Northern Illinois should be in a nasty mood after dropping a one-point decision as a TD favorite at Toledo. This is a team that hung within a score of both Wisconsin and Purdue on the road. The talent level is dramatically lopsided here and the Huskies should be in the mood to play, so unless something really strange happens, they should win this one by a minimum of 14 points. I'll go with Northern Illinois here.

This line is surprisingly low to me. I believe the oddsmakers see a letdown spot for the Sooners after the disappointing three-point loss to Texas. But, after their 10-point loss to Texas a year ago, the Sooners beat Kansas by 14 the following week. Oklahoma hasn't lost a football game after playing Texas since losing to Missouri in 1998. They've played good following the Red River Rivalry, going 12-1 straight up and 8-5 ATS in their last 13 such games. They are also 9-3 ATS overall in their last twelve games following a loss. If you looked at this game before the season and saw 7.5 you would have grabbed it for as much as you could. Granted, the Sooners are without Sam Bradford but the dropoff is not that dramatic. They have been without him for much of the season and they have lost three games by a total of five points, and won three by a total of 135! How's that for perspective? Kansas had their hands full with Iowa State two weeks ago and last week lost to Colorado. The reality here is that Oklahoma is a far better team than Kansas, even with Landry Jones behind center. Jones has thrown for over 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns in five games and he's getting more comfortable every week. The Jayhawks are a poor play as a home dog as they are 7-18 ATS in their last 25. This one belongs to Oklahoma.

The Zips came into the Dome last year and put a pasting on the 'Cuse in a 42-28 victory. They put on an offensive clinic in that one, piling up 29 first downs and 478 total yards. That was an Akron team that started the season 5-4, but since it has been all downhill as Akron has proceeded to go just 1-8 since. The lone win was to a non-FBS team against Morgan State. The Zips are struggling for offense and are down to Patrick Nicely at QB, a 3rd-stringer, as the top two Akron QBs are out with a knee injury and suspension. Syracuse is a much-improved team, but it isn't seen in their 2-4 record as they have lost to some powerhouses in Penn State, Minnesota, South Florida and West Virginia. Those four opponents combine for a 20-6 record. Last year the Syracuse offense never topped the 30-point mark, and this season they have already done it twice. Their three ATS wins vs. Big-10 teams leaves them still under the radar, and will handily beat a shorthanded Akron team. I'll go with Syracuse in this one.

The Cougars might have been able to move the ball against the likes of Hawaii and SMU in games where they averaged 25 points. But in their four Pac-10 games, they are scoring less than 10 per game. They have scored 6 points or less in more than half of their last eleven Pac-10 games and managed just 3 points vs. Cal a year ago at home while yielding 66! What can Cal do this year at home? This is stat-padding for Cal. After a couple of humbling games vs. USC and Oregon, they piled 45 on a decent defensive UCLA team and the Cougars are in trouble here. Cal has a superb offense that has had no trouble piling on against big numbers as last year they were heavy-duty chalk of 35 and 27.5 points and already this year 33, and won the three games by an average of 42.7 ppg, covering all three. The Cougars own six losses by a bigger margin since just last year. The Bears hung 45 on UCLA last week and they are 23-12 ATS under head coach Jeff Tedford following a game in which they scored 37 or more. They are also 8-1 ATS since last season at home. Cal can name the score and I like them to notch a blowout.

This is the perfect spot to go against Texas right? They just won their biggest game of the year - the one that most thought could keep them out of the National Championship game. The game was against their biggest rival and they won a physical, hard fought game. WRONG! Rewind to last year and the exact same sequence. Texas faced Missouri after the Horn's hooked the Sooners. They were posted as just a 3.5 point favorite but crushed the Tigers 56-31! Need more? How about this class of seniors to start? After their game with Oklahoma, they own three wins by a final count of 175-65. That is 36.7 ppg! It gets better. The Horns are now 10-0 straight-up and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after Oklahoma. Does it still look like a letdown spot, especially knowing that they now control their own destiny for a National Championship appearance? In addition, the Tigers are 1-9 ATS since last year when facing a good passing team (completing 58%+) and 0-7 ATS vs. teams that average 425+ yards per game. Horns roll here.

The 2007 season ended for New Mexico on one of the highest high's in the program’s recent history. They notched a 23-0 Bowl win at University Stadium over Nevada. Since that win New Mexico has played 18 games, and if you didn't even consider the losses, they still wouldn't be Bowl eligible yet! The Lobos have dropped 10 straight games, so to be marked as a favorite here has to raise some eyebrows. With just three returning defensive starters from last season, this team is allowing 38 points per game. UNLV certainly isn't having a record-breaking year, but they have managed to put two in the win column, and gave a decent Wyoming team all they could handle on the road. The Lobos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight, and already were posted as a double-digit favorite at home, then found a way to lose that one. They also dropped their last two to close out '08 as a favorite. One of those was vs. UNLV. The Lobos are like physics: an object in motion tends to stay in motion. Losing teams find ways to lose, and I'm going with the Runnin’ Rebels here.

Results: 4-4

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• View betting football free pick here.
• Here we show our NCAA football prior predictions .
• Updated today: college football blog.
• Don't forget to read our college football sports book here.
• Don't forget to visit our college football Game-of-Week Analysis.
• Don't forget to visit our 2009 college football prior pick season results.
• Don't forget to visit our college football ATS standings.
• Updated today: NCAA football betting philosophy.
• Don't forget to visit our college football lines and odds.
• Take a look at our 2009 college football team previews here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-03-2009
The oddsmakers have basically rated this game even, with Buffalo getting a home-field nod in the betting line. But, are these teams really equal? Buffalo took a blow when their leading rusher of all t...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-29-2009
The Auburn offense looked like the real deal when they opened the season with four wins. They piled up the yardage and points, averaging 45.3 points per game in the process. But then the schedule got ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-21-2009
The Golden Hurricane will bring the nation's leading offense into the Sun Bowl for a Conference USA clash on ESPN. Tulsa isn't quite as offensive as they have been in the past, but they still ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-15-2009
This is an intriguing game. The Hawkeyes remain one of only eight unbeaten teams in NCAA Football. They've won ten straight games dating back to last season. They face the Badgers who have just on...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-08-2009
Eastern Michigan suffered a serious blow when QB Andy Schmitt went down for the season with an injury and they simply aren't the type of program that can pull another competent QB right off t...