Expert Football Picks - October 25, 2008

Last week was a winning week for us and this week thus far we are 1-1. We have one Friday night pick and seven Saturday selections for you. Good luck!

As a side note, I am personally throwing a little on Arizona moneyline as I think they have a shot at upsetting the Trojans on Saturday. I'm not making it an official pick because of the long odds, but at 5-to-1, I'm taking a flier! 

This week we also feature a Dog Pound article with our take on the No. 1 Texas Longhorns and QB Colt McCoy.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Boise State at San Jose State (Friday 10/24 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on San Jose State +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Boise State is again undefeated which seems to be the norm in Boise every year. I don't think this is the same type of team the Broncos have had in the past howeve. Evidence is emerging to back that up, but their reputation proceeds them so they are overvalued here. The Broncos have failed to score 40 points in a game through six weeks. That has not hapened since 1996-97 when they were a 2-10 team. The offense lacks the explosiveness we have seen over the last several years. Bring in a San Jose State team ranked #13 in the Nation on defense, and the stage is set for a possible upset. The Broncos win at home, but on the road they are vulnerable. They almost lost here two years ago, winning with a FG as time expired. The time before that they were taken to double OT by a San Jose State team ranked number 108 in offense (that produced 49 points vs the Broncos). San Jose is 5-2, losing to Nebraska after being down just 2 points in t 4th quarter on the road. A kick return and INT return did them in. They outplayed the Cornhuskers, outgaining them in that one.They also lost at Stanford in a game that was tied 10-10 deep in the 3rd quarter. They have proven they can step up on the road and now they get a chance to step up at home. I think they have a shot to spring the upset here, and will take the generous points.

Eastern Michigan comes in off a disaster vs. Akron. They led with 30 seconds left and block an Akron game winning FG attempt. Game over, right? No! Akron picks it up and advances for a first down, calls two timeouts, and runs in for the game winning TD. So, how does this poor team bounce back from that at home? Especially when facing a rested really good Ball State team? They don't. Ball has covered every game on their schedule by double-digits on average. The offense is racking up 37.4 ppg and they are converting over 52% of third down situations. They have allowed just four sacks on the season and are rushing for over 5 yards a carry. So down and distance has favored them all season thanks to a balanced attack. Eastern Michigan has given up 37+ in five games already and hasn't faced this potent of an offense all season. Now they have to contend with it on the road, after a very emotionally disappointing loss. Ball State gets the call here.

There was a lot of speculation at the beginning of the season that this would be a game with National Title implications, with both teams possibly arriving unbeaten. It hasn't happened. LSU was spanked by Florida and Georgia was beaten by Alabama at home. So, these teams enter with a big blemish. The loser's hopes are dashed. But, Georgia is still able to get wins vs. Florida (next week) and LSU here, and could find themselves back in the hunt. LSU with a win here and versus Bama, could do the same. So this is still a very meaningful game for both teams. When you look at these teams they stack up fairly evenly, with one big difference. The Bulldogs have an experienced QB in Matthew Stafford (10 TDs and four INTs), whileJerrett Lee (seven TDs and six INTs) is inexperienced. That inexperience reared it's ugly head with a pick-6 vs Florida, and Georgia will be waiting for the same opportunity. I'll go with the Bulldogs on the road.

Under Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech has a reputation for being a big defenisve team, and one that capitalizes on turning the opponent over. They are know to have great special teams play - blocking punts, FGs, and extra points. Over the last four years, this Virginia Tech team has held teams to 10 points or less 24 times (FBS only considered), an average of six times a season. This year the Hokies defense is still decent, but only a figment of what it has been in the past four years. Not a single team has been held to 10 points or less (again FBS teams only) in 2008. This year's version vs FBS teams has allowed 22 ppg, most recently giving up 28 to Boston College and 30 to Nebraska. Florida State has discovered some offense in their last three games, scoring 35.3 ppg. And, a defense that held the first three opponents to 6.3 ppg has now allowed 25.7 ppg in the last three. These are teams with defensive reputations that are simply playing differently this year. I like the OVER in this one.

Bowling Green is an interesting team as they play their best football on the road. While they remain winless at home, they are 3-1 on the road. A win here will actually have them tied for the lead in the wacky MAC East. Northern Illinois has been successful because of a good defense, and they have really stopped the run cold. The Huskies have allowed just 20 points in three home games, holding the opponent to just 6.7 ppg. When Bowling Green went to Boise State they were held to 7 points and 307 total yards, facing the #32 ranked defense. The Huskies are ranked 17th defensively and a similar effort is expected. It takes two teams to score when the total reaches the mid to upper 40s. I'll play the UNDER here.

This seems like a lot of points but Wyoming may have trouble locating the endzone if they had no defense in front of them. The Cowpokes have been truly awful on offensive, sporting a -15 turnover margin. Now they must tackle the best stop unit in the land in TCU - a trunover forcing machine at +12. The Frogs have pushed the 40 mark in three of their games this season, and this may be interesting to see if their defense can outscore the offense! If Wyoming scores in this one it will be breaking news, and I have no doubt the TCU defense will outscore the Wyoming offense. With an offense producing 32 vs BYU, their contribution alone should be sufficient. TCU by a landslide!

Missouri got caught sleeping vs. a good Oklahoma State team two weeks ago in a look ahead spot with the Longhorns on deck. Then, they caught a REALLY good Horns team last week who laid one on the Tigers. Prior to those games, the talk of this team was one scoring on every drive, with best offense ever in NCAA Football. That talk has quieted abruptly and now Missouri is not getting a word. Guess what? Now is the time. It is the same team, and they have absolutely bombarded middle of the road teams like the Buffs. They are now angry and have something to prove to the doubters. They are ready to spring one of their 50+ performances this week and Colorado won't be able to stop them. The Buffs are really sputtering to find any semblance of an offense, having real trouble throwing the ball. If they get down early, which is very likely, and are forced to throw, they are going to get hammered here. I truly don't see how Colorado, on the road, is going to keep this one even marginally close. Missouri has the talent and the motivation here, which is what blowouts are made of. Lay the big wood and play the Tigers here.

Troy has yet to lose in Sun Belt play this season, but haven't faced the type of teams they have had in the most recent past. They have yet to put one on a team. Their largest margin of victory has been 14 points in league play, while last year they won each of their first five league games by 17 or more. North Texas has taken it's lumps early, with a scoring average of 13 ppg over their first five. But they are on the improve, scoring 26.5 ppg over their last two, getting the cover as a big dog last week. The difference has been the better decision making, and maturing of QB Giovanni Vizza. Vizza who had just four TD passes to six INTs in his first four games. He has matched the TDs with four in his last two games while getting picked just once. He has also generated 723 yards in the last two. With the Mean Green sporting a better attack, and this one likely to not get the attention of the men from Troy, I'll ride the bushel of points and back the Mean Green here.

Results: 5-3

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Check out NCAA football betting philosophy here.
• View our 2008 college football predictions here.
• Read our Football Game-of-Week Analysis here.
• Check out our updated college football prior predictions.
• Here we show our sports betting football.
• View our updated 2008 college football prior pick season results.
• View our college football against-the-spread records here.
• Don't forget to visit our Football odds.
• View our updated college football picks super bowl odds.
• View our updated college football blog.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-23-2008
The Mountaineers were supposed to contend for a National Title contender this season, with Pat White and Noel Devine spearheading a big offense. After back-to-back losses to East Carolina and Colorado...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-21-2008
The Bobcats will be playing in their third straight on the road in this one and an offense that has managed under 20 points per game (less the VMI game) has managed only 14 per game when they are in t...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-17-2008
I don't think many would have expected these teams to come into this game with identical 5-1 records, but here they are. Georgia was supposed to run the table and make a Championship appearance. I...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-10-2008
The Gophers are perhaps one of the most improved teams in the country. Last year their lone win came early against Miami Ohio, but this year they are 5-1 and Bowl worthy with a win here. Adam Weber ha...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-07-2008
Troy and Florida Atlantic hookup in Sun Belt action in a matchup of what were supposed to be the top two teams in the conference. Florida Atlantic saw that dream vanish on the last play of the game at...