College Football Bowl Picks - October 20, 2007

After a 6-3 week seven, we started off with a big win last night as Rutgers upset South Florida as predicted. We're sitting at +13.1 units on the year. We have a pick in the Friday night game as well as seven Saturday selections.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Louisville at Connecticut (Friday 10/19 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Louisville -3

While having one of these teams at 4-3 and the other at 5-1 may be "normal" at this point in the season, few would have guessed which team would be which. Both teams have been a  big suprise. The Huskies have the #5 ranked defense in the entire country according to the stats, while Louisville is giving up 30 point sper game. But, sometimes stats are quite misleading. There is no doubt that UCONN is an improved team from last season. But how much? Our answer is not as much as the country believes. Let's take a deeper look within the numbers and reveal the truth. UCONN has recorded five wins on the season. They opened with a convincing win at Duke. Duke's offense is No. 112 out of 120 teams, and the Blue Devils were 1-28 in their last 29 games. The Huskies then beat D-1AA Maine at home. Their next game was against Temple, also at home. Temple is 3-28 in their last 31 games, with the wins coming against D-1A powerhouses Bowling Green, Akron and N. Illinois. The Temple offense at No. 99 in the country is the top offense the Huskies have seen all season! Temple won the game but a bad call, which the official admitted getting wrong on the last play of the game, put an early X-Mas gift in the left column for the Huskies. Then it was on to Pitt for the Big East opener. Pitt is rated No. 101 offensively, and is 0-4 getting hammered by everyone save two cupcakes on their schedule in E. Michigan and Grambling. They also beat Akron at home, who owns the No. 114 ranked offense in the country, and has three wins over Kent State, Army and W. Michigan. Then they go to Virginia and play the Cavs straight up, but lose by a single point. The Cavs' offense is ranked No. 109 in the country. Sense a pattern here regarding Connecticut's competition? Misleading stats? We'd say. The Huskies should be 4-2 against the worst schedule of any BCS team in the country, and having faced the worst average offense in the country. To recap, they faced No. 99, No. 101, No. 109, No. 112, No. 114 and a D-1AA team. How has that prepared this team for what they will see against Louisville? Louisville has a pro offense that will shock this unprepared and overconfident UCONN team and they won't know what hit them. Louisville has a pro QB that completes 68% of his passes and makes no mistakes. Brohm has thrown for 23 TDs to just four picks. They also run for more yards than the Huskies, and have done it vs. much better competition. We are aware of the porous Louisville defense, but it isn't as bad as it looks or seems. Last week they went to Cincinnati and beat a very good football team, allowing only 24 points. The past three weeks have seen them drop the points allowed from 40 in the three prior games to 26 in the last three. They have been improving. UCONN does not have an advantage anywhere on the field over Louisville. Last year Louisville torched this same UCONN defense for 48 points. There is another factor at work here. This game is likely to be played in heavy rain, but not much wind. That will slow the Huskies down, and the QB with the accurate and stronger arm is going to have an even greater advantage. UCONN was a 29-point underdog last year and it wasn't enough. Have they gotten 26 points better than last year? Even in the year it went to the Motor City Bowl (2003) this UCONN team lost to BC by 10 and WVA by 34. Since then (2004-07) they have played 11 teams that were in the upper tier of the country. The results were a 22 point loss to South Florida last year and 12, 26, and 32-point losses to WVA. And, losses to Louisville by 10 and 31 points and a loss to Rutgers last year by 11. They dropped games to Georgia Tech by 15 and 20 points and BC by 10 and Pitt by 24. The fact is they have not been within double digits of any good team in four years, and we don't see that changing here.

Miami Ohio started out the season with a nice upset win on the road at Ball State. Things looked good. Then they went on to lose three straight, allowing 41+ points in all three games. The defense looked bad and it looked like the wheels had come off. But, let's look at who they faced in those games: Minnesota, Cincinnati and Colorado! the Red Hawks can't keep up with those teams. But, they can play with the lower-level teams. Want proof? They have won their last three against lower-level competition (Syracuse, Kent State, Bowling Green). So against lower-level competition, this team is 4-0 SU and ATS including three outright underdog wins! In those four games, they have allowed no more than 14 points in any game. Temple started off the season with five straight losses but has won their last two, giving us live value here. The fact is, Miami Ohio is a much better team than Temple but the overall average stats mask this fact. Miami Ohio rolls here to a big win.

Navy has had a very good year so far, and they have proved to be a difficult team to stop offensively. The Middies lead the nation in rushing, averaging 345 yards per game. They seem to be one of the few teams that don’t need to be effective in the air, and still put up a lot of points, to keep drives moving. They have averaged 5.6 yards per carry on the season. Their defense has not been that good, but they seem to get the stops they need and shorten games by running the ball 90% of the time. They played a very good Rutgers team on the road and only trailed by 10 with 11 minutes left before falling. Wake Forest has been self-destructing all season long. The Demon Deacons have turned the ball over 17 times in six games and QB Riley Skinner is having a nightmare of a season. He is completing over 70% of his passes, but has thrown just four TD passes vs. nine INTs. Backup Brett Hodges has been worse, as he has thrown for one TD and three INTs. They lack the game breaker, and when they get in the red zone have difficulty hanging onto the ball. They will be in a role that has not been kind to their backers as they are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 as a favorite. Meanwhile Navy will be wearing the underdog uniforms, in which they have been a profitable 14-5 ATS. This should be a tight game, which gives Navy the edge as they are home getting a FG, so we will back them in this one.

Air Force has had more success this season than most had predicted. A lot of it has been attributable to the rapid development of their two key offensive players: QB Shaun Carney and RB-PR Chad Hall. Carney has really had a breakout year. He has hit on 62% of his passes for almost 1,000 yards - making the Wishbone more dangerous. That is especially true when he can run it too. He has 291 yards and two TDs as well. Chad Hall has been unstoppable. He has rushed 76 times for 589 yards, for an amazing 7.8 yards per carry. Hall has also been dangerous out of the backfield, catching 30 balls for 337 yards. Hall is also averaging 15 yards on punt returns. The Falcons' attack is No. 5 in the country running the ball. Wyoming has made a lot of mistakes offensively, putting a ton of pressure on the defense and it is beginning to show. Karsten Sween has already thrown nine INTs and Ian Hetrick another, for a total of 10. This is all coming from a passing game that simply does not throw downfield, as only one receiver out of the 11 that have caught passes averages double-digit yards per catch. The defense which is superb was not good against the bone last year, as two Falcon players topped 100 yards, and that was on the road. The added pressure has seen the defense tire, and has now allowed 25-ppg over the last four. Prosperity has been very good for the Falcons, as they are 16-6 ATS after a 20+ point win, while the Cowboys are just 2-9-1 ATS after an ATS loss. Two teams heading in different directions, and we like the Falcons to win at home.

How the mighty have fallen. Miami, playing a schedule that has included Marshall, Duke, Florida International, North Carolina, Georgia Tech and A&M at home, should be sitting at 6-1 (assuming a loss at Oklahoma). Instead, they are 4-3 and that includes a 23-9 home win over FIU as a 33 point favorite. The Hurricanes seem to be heading in the wrong direction as last week they were out-gained by Georgia Tech by 150 yards at home. They were down the week before to a mediocre NC team 27-0 at the half, and led Duke at home by three points midway through the fourth quarter. They went on the road to Oklahoma and were absolutely pounded, garnering just seven first downs, and allowing 26. Here is a team giving up 12 points per game at home but 44-ppg on the road. We saw it last year too. They gave up 10.6-ppg at home, but on the road 21.4ppg. Nothing has changed. Florida State has a very ambitious schedule this season. It features road games at Clemson, Colorado, Wake Forest, BC, Virginia Tech and Florida, as well as a home game against Alabama. This is still by and large a young team that is growing. Last year they had just nine scholarship seniors, and now have 18 and used 17 true freshman - the most in the country last year. Those players are developing. Young teams tend to do better at home and such is the case here. The offense has 27.3-ppg at home to 18.3-ppg on the road. They are allowing just 16 at home. These teams mirror each other in that respect, and on a neutral field these teams might be close, but Miami is 10 points worse on the road and FSU is 10 points better at home. It makes for a lot of value in this one, and we will ride the Seminoles at home.

UL Monroe is a team that has won just once and stands at 1-5. And they are nearly a two-touchdown favorite? Is there something wrong with the oddsmakers? Not at all! This is a team that has faced Tulsa, Clemson, Texas A&M and the predicted conference champion on the road. The only winnable game they have had was a 30-13 white-washing at home against Arkansas State. This is a team that is loaded on offense as they brought back all 11 starters. They lost five games last season by five points or less to finish at 5-6. So don't let the numbers fool you! This is also homecoming which is a big deal here, and ULM has not disappointed on homecoming. They are 17-8 on homecoming weekend. The Florida International program is a mess. They have now gone 0-18 in their last 18 games, and the next win does not appear to be in sight. They have scored four offensive TDs all season and three of those have come in the fourth quarter and two of them on long passes. The bottom line is that this team has not been able to sustain a drive this season! Things have been so bad that if you totaled up their offensive production over six games (24 quarters) and put it all together this team would be just 3-3, so the defense isn't getting it done either. Last season ULM shut out Florida International 35-0, and we wouldn't be a bit surprised to see a similar score in this one.

Maryland has really shown signs of an up-and-comer this season. They have been winning with the arm of Chris Turner and their size. Maryland used a huge size advantage to stuff Rutgers, and did the same to Wake Forest. In that game they led 24-3 midway through the third, on their way to 31-3, when Turner was picked off and run back for 100 yards. Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, W. Virginia and Rutgers represent four tough games, and Maryland has been improving. Virginia had a showdown with UCONN at home, but the Huskies are a vastly overrated 5-1 (see Louisville vs. UCONN writeup). We can look at those four games and say that Virginia has not yet played a team the caliber of any of them. This team really struggles to find the end zone, and against mediocre competition, they rank No. 109 in the country. They needed a last second FG to win at Middle Tennessee. A missed two-point conversion saved their bacon at NC. Even UCONN should have won on their turf last week, and Georgia Tech was leading them in the fourth quarter and they were soundly thrashed at Wyoming. Even Duke was within four points midway through the fourth. This 6-1 Cavs team is mighty close to being 2-5, and they will be exposed at Maryland where the Terps come away with a convincing win.

It's h ard to believe Kentucky beat this LSU team. The better team (LSU) had more yardage, two less turnovers and a five minute possession advantage and lost. They couldn't make the plays when they needed them most. This is a big game for LSU. There is no longer a margin for error and in this game in particular. A loss to Auburn would be fatal to LSU, while a big win would be a huge boost in head-to-head comparisons vs. South Florida who beat Auburn. This Tigers team is capable of putting a three-TD margin on this game easily, if they are focused and you can bet they are going to be steaming for this one. They have the added edge of revenge as they lost to Auburn last year 7-3. LSU is now 7-0 ATS after a SU loss and 17-6 in their last 23 off an upset loss, so expect them to bring it in this one. They also have covered 10+ points in 21 of their last 31 tries. Expect a very talented LSU team to play their best game of the season on both sides of the ball, and that will be way too much for a young Auburn team to deal with on the road.

Results: 2-6

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated 2007 football pick season results.
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• Hop over to our football blog here.
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• View our NCAA football lines here.
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• Read our college football prior predictions here.
• Check out our updated 2007 college football team previews.
• Don't forget to visit our free college football predictions.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-18-2007
We have watched all the top teams get picked off week after week so far in 2007. Not one preseason Top 10 team still stands undefeated! South Florida has taken advantage of the situation, playing...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-11-2007
How people seem to have forgotten the recent past. Wake is a big home underdog here despite having beaten Florida State the first and only home shutout loss of the Bobby Bowden era (31 years). Was it ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-10-2007
Navy will play the Panthers in Pittsburgh tonight, bringing in the nation's #2 rushing attack (348 yards per game). Navy remains a one dimensional team. They run the triple option a...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-04-2007
It has been quite a story in Lexington. The football team is getting some attention usually reserved for basketball. The Wildcats have gotten off to a 5-0 start, and it is an explosive offense that ha...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-03-2007
Southern Miss will be at home tonight for the first time against a D-1A opponent. Rice will enter having allowed 53 points per game in their three D-1 games. With just six returning starters on d...