Free Bowl Picks - October 18, 2008

We struggled last week. After some adjustments, we have seven plays we like to get us back on track. Good luck!

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Vanderbilt at Georgia (Saturday 10/18 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Vanderbilt +425 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 8.5)

I don't think many would have expected these teams to come into this game with identical 5-1 records, but here they are. Georgia was supposed to run the table and make a Championship appearance. Instead they fell flat at home losing to Alabama. Vandy was supposed to be rebuilding, but rebuilding what? They have never been a factor in the SEC but suddenly halfway through the season, they are! Something is definitely off with this Georgia team. They barely get past Tennessee (who has been awful). They found themselves down 31-0 at home to Alabama, and trailed at the half to South Carolina before ekeing out a 14-7 win. They really should have lost that game as they were outgained and had a +2 trunover margin, but still struggled to win. Suddenly there is no margin for error with a team that seemed to have a wide margin over everyone before the season started. So here comes Vandy. Already notching wins vs. S. Carolina and Auburn. No one is scoring on them. They have still been disrespected, as they have now been a dog four times, and won each one of them outright! Something is off with Georgia, and with LSU up next for the Bulldogs, they could be looking past the Commodores. If they get sleepy here, watch out. Georgia is on a 5-11 straight-up run at home vs. teams at .750 or better. I think there's great value on Vanderbilt straight-up here. The line gives them a 20% chance of winning but I think it's likely double that.

Toledo is usually in the thick of things in the MAC, but not this year. The Rockets are off to a 2-4 start, having managed 16 or fewer points in four of their six games. Their offense ranks just 89th out of 120 teams. The Huskies have not been an offensive force either as they come in with a ranking of just 77th. They have been impressive on the defensive end where they are ranked 24th, allowing just 14.8 ppg. Toledo has been better on the defensive side than the offensive side, where they come in an average 63rd best. Neither of these teams are driven by the offense, which means we could see a field position game, leading to a lot of long drives that the offenses can't sustain all the way to the end zone. Northern Illinois has seen just 52 points scored total in its last two games. They have played UNDER in 20 of their last 26 games while Toledo has played UNDER in seven of their last eight. The trend is clear and we'll ride it.

With Ohio State on deck, will Penn State show up for this one? You bet! Many might be thinking that, but certainly I disagree. Penn State has not beaten Michigan since 1996, and they haven't won at Happy Valley since 1995. Remember there is still an M on the uniform and for the Penn State seniors, this is a huge game. They will show up - for three reasons. For the fans who crave a big win against mighty Michigan, for themselves, and for Coach Pa who hasn't tasted a win forever against this team. There's nothing like a big huge motivated favorite that will be out for blood, against a totally outclassed opponent. The Wolverines just lost to a MAC team the first time ever - at home!. Penn State has the advantage at every spot on the field, including special teams. Add in the motivation and Joe Pa can name his score. I'd be shocked if this one isn't covered by halftime! Nittany Lion's get revenge in a big way.

The Huskies have had this game circled since Oregon State took a cheap hit on a Washington player that knocked him out of the game last year. For a winless team, it gives them something they haven't had all season - a reason to come out and play hard and over their heads. It's a reason to rise above the mediocrity that has been the trademark of their season. For all practical purposes, this game is their season. Oregon State has been playing much better, but it would be easy to see them come into this game thinking they just have to show up to notch the win. We saw a similar circumstance earlier this year when we jumped on Oregon State vs. USC. I would expect that every player on the Huskies team will be treating this one like their Bowl game. Here we are getting two TDs on a highly motivated home team playing with a serious revenge motive and chip on their shoulder. They are facing a team that may not have interest to boot. 

Houston is one of those teams that plays to the level of competition. Last week they were down at home 20-3 to a bad UAB team and had to pour it on in the second half to win. They did the same on the road at Colorado State where they fell behind 21-3 at the half. In that one, on the road, they didn't have enough to come back and win. They did the same thing at home vs Air Force, falling behind 31-7. Again, their comeback fell short. They just don't play 60 minutes of football. That could present a problem vs. an SMU team that is on the improve. SMU gave undefeated Tulsa all they could handle and nearly pulled off the upset at home. Bo Levi Mitchell is finally coming around. Not counting the Texas State game, Mitchell threw for just 617 yards in his first three games with four TDs and ten INTs. The last three he has thrown for 925 with eight TDs and six picks (four TD and one INT last week vs. Tulsa). Suddenly SMU is covering pointspreads. They actually have a better yards-per-lay (6.6) at home than does Houston on the road (6.4). The Mustangs are coming off five straight losses, resulting in this line. But, they have only lost two of those games ATS and those games were against better teams than Houston. I like SMU to hang tight here.

The Tigers are off of their worst loss in quite a while, getting smacked around by the Gators in the Swamp. LSU could muster just 21 points in that game. Meanwhile, South Carolina continues to play the best defense in the SEC. The Gamecocks are impressively rated fourth in yards allowed in the nation and they held a highly potent Georgia team to just 14 points at home in week three. It is clear that LSU, a team that has been so potent offensively over the last few years, is just not the same team on the offensive side of the ball right now. They have averaged just 27 points per game in SEC play, a far cry from the team that was putting up in the 40s on a regular basis last year. The Gamecocks offense is not explosive and LSU will not have the same problems defending as they did vs. the Gators. The Gamecocks are 8-1 UNDER dating back to last season to a total in this range (42-49). I look for this one to go UNDER the total as well.

It seems like every time you look at the schedule, there is a BIG-12 game going on with National Title implications. This week is no different! Texas took care of business last week in the Red River Rivalry. Now they get the privledge of facing Mizzou and Texas Tech right afterward. Missouri got caught snoozing last week as Chase Daniels threw three INTs resulting in the Tigers' first loss of the year. The Longhorns came from behind last week, expending a lot of energy and emotion in the monster game vs. the Sooners. You have to wonder if they can bring the same type of play for a second week in a row vs. a Missouri team that has equal weapons at their disposal, and strong motivation after their loss. Missouri players know that a win here vs. the #1 team puts them back on the National Title map. A second-straight loss and the hopes are shot. There is talent all over the field here, and the difference is likely to be mindset. Not that Texas doesn't want to win as much as Missouri. But, after what they had to do last week in a physically and emotionally draining game vs. their most hated rival, there is no place to go but down. I expect that to be the difference maker here. Missouri has won six of the last nine Big 12 road games against the spread and I like them here.

Results: 4-3

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• View our NCAA football betting philosophy here.
• Check out 2008 college football preview here.
• Hop over to our Football Game-of-Week Analysis here.
• View our updated college football record.
• Check out our updated football sports book.
• View 2008 college football picks season results here.
• Check out college football ATS standings here.
• Check out NCAA football odds lines and spreads here.
• View free football pick here.
• Check out our updated blog college football.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-10-2008
The Gophers are perhaps one of the most improved teams in the country. Last year their lone win came early against Miami Ohio, but this year they are 5-1 and Bowl worthy with a win here. Adam Weber ha...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-07-2008
Troy and Florida Atlantic hookup in Sun Belt action in a matchup of what were supposed to be the top two teams in the conference. Florida Atlantic saw that dream vanish on the last play of the game at...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-02-2008
The Blue Devils at 3-1? It looks like a misprint. But they actually should be 4-0. This is no doubt an inspired and improved team. They are off their largest margin of victory since 1998, having ended...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-30-2008
Florida Atlantic is off two straight losses by a combined score of 54-3. Their other loss of the season was by a score of 52-10. Middle Tennessee has gotten a lot of credit for beating Maryland. That ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-25-2008
We're 8-2 thus far on our mid-week CFB plays. We look to take that to 9-2 with this pick. The Trojans take their #1 ranking to Corvallis to take on the Beavers of Oregon State, a team no one thing...