College Football Prediction - October 18, 2007
We are coming off a 6-3 (67%) week, including a win on our 5-unit Game of the Month (Central Michigan). Combined with a 4-2 NFL week, we had a great football week and look to replicate that again this week.
We start the week off with a pick in tonight's ESPN game featuring South Florida at Rutgers. We'll have Friday and Saturday picks out to you tomorrow.
What a wild CFB season! Little did we know that when we wrote about this crazy upset season last week, that both the #1 and #2 teams would go down to keep the wackiness going! Who will be the next Top 10 team to fall? We think it happens tonight!
Today's NCAA Football Picks:
Game: S. Florida at Rutgers (Thursday 10/18 7:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Rutgers +2
We have watched all the top teams get picked off week after week so far in 2007. Not one preseason Top 10 team still stands undefeated! South Florida has taken advantage of the situation, playing great and bolting up to the #2 team in the nation in the polls and BCS standings. They have now become anointed among the elite. We're a big fan of the Bulls and have ridden them to some nice ATS wins last season and this season. We were on them when they were under the radar and underrated. How times have changed! They have now become the darlings of the NCAA, much like Rutgers last season. The team that snuck up on everyone is now at risk of falling from the perch and we think they do. Now, the analysts love this Bullls team! They talk about how they have not allowed a 100 yard rusher in 12 games. The fact is, in many of their top games, the opposition has featured tandom running backs that have had success! Auburn had Tate 14-61 (4.4 ypc) and Fannin 14-62 (4.4 ypc). Lowly Florida Atlantic had Rose 10-59 (5.9 ypc), Edgecomb 4-27 (6.8 ypc) and Pierce 12-57 (4.7 ypc). Then there was WVA with Slaton at 15-54 (4.2ypc), White 9-36 (4.0 ypc), Brown 15-61 (4.0 ypc) and Devine 4-36 (9.0 ypc). So in those three games, yes - no 100 yard rushers. But, the nine running backs averaged at least 4 yards per carry (and averaged over 150 yards per game). So the lack of a back producing 100 yards is for the stuffed suits to comment on, while the fact is that this team is being run on. And, those suits conveniently fail to mention that Rice ran for over 200 yards against this same defense last year. Matt Groeth is a do-everything QB for S. Florida. He leads the team in rushing. So, the bottomline is Rutgers knows if they stop him, the Bulls are likely going nowhere. The Bulls have a few other warts including kicker Dalbery Alvarado. He went 2-6 against Auburn, missing from 35, 45, 37 and 21 yards out, with one being blocked. He proceeded to miss his only attempt vs. WVA. Rutgers blocked a punt last week, so look out! Alvarado is not the guy you want in a game expected to be close, and pressured to line up for a FG, at any point in the game. South Florida has a pair of excellent corners in Williams and Jenkins, but they still were burned for 259 against Florida Atlantic, 226 vs. Elon, as well as 250 to WVA. It took five Auburn turnovers for S. Florida to win in OT on the road. And, West Virginia turned it over 6 times to the Bulls! Despite that, the Mountaineers still out-gained South Florida almost 2 to 1 (437-274)! So, while South Florida is good, they are not THIS good. The final factor here at play is that Rutgers is home in a big game. This caliber of football is still a novelty at RU and the place is going to be out of control tonight, which is certainly a huge edge for Rutgers. Rutgers has the talent to not only stay with South Florida, but to win this game. Remember, it took 11 turnovers for South Florida to beat the two competitive teams on their schedule, as they were completely out-classed otherwise. And let's not forget that under Schiano, the Scarlet Knights are 29-16 ATS as an underdog and 12-3 ATS vs. great teams (those outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg). Rutgers gets the win in this one.
NCAA Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Football-Picks-October-11-2007
How people seem to have forgotten the recent past. Wake is a big home underdog here despite having beaten Florida State the first and only home shutout loss of the Bobby Bowden era (31 years). Was it ...
NCAA-Football-Picks-October-10-2007
Navy will play the Panthers in Pittsburgh tonight, bringing in the nation's #2 rushing attack (348 yards per game). Navy remains a one dimensional team. They run the triple option a...
NCAA-Football-Picks-October-04-2007
It has been quite a story in Lexington. The football team is getting some attention usually reserved for basketball. The Wildcats have gotten off to a 5-0 start, and it is an explosive offense that ha...
NCAA-Football-Picks-October-03-2007
Southern Miss will be at home tonight for the first time against a D-1A opponent. Rice will enter having allowed 53 points per game in their three D-1 games. With just six returning starters on d...
NCAA-Football-Picks-September-28-2007
Air Force heads to Annapolis to play for the Commander-in-Chief trophy in what is the third road game in four weeks for the Falcons. Under new head coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force has pulled o...
