Football Prediction - October 17, 2009

After three big winning weeks in a row going 18-10 collectively, we had a big losing week last week. Last week was the second losing week out of six on the season so I look for a nice rebound this week. I have nine picks this week including two 5-unit plays.

We notched a couple more Upset Alerts winners last Saturday including Duke over North Carolina State as a +14 underdog, paying out at 4.5 to 1. This week I have 16 Upset Alerts for you below.

Want to know who the public is betting on? Check out the most comprhensive (and free) Consensus Report available at FSB here.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Iowa at Wisconsin (Saturday 10/17 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Iowa +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)

This is an intriguing game. The Hawkeyes remain one of only eight unbeaten teams in NCAA Football. They've won ten straight games dating back to last season. They face the Badgers who have just one loss. They suffered their first loss of the season at Ohio State. In that game, the Badgers actually outplayed the Buckeyes. Wisconsin gained 368 yards to Ohio State's 184! Somehow they still lost by 18 points. The problem was, they could only muster 13 points despite moving the ball. So Wisconsin is good, but Iowa is better! Iowa proved they are legit by going to Happy Valley and coming away with a convincing 21-10 win three weeks ago. Iowa is one of the best defensive teams in the country allowing just 15.8 points per game. And we saw what happened to Wisconsin's offense against a tough Ohio State defense last week - 13 points. QB Scott Tolzien threw two interceptions and was sacked six times. He'll be under a lot of pressure again on Saturday. The Hawkeyes also have gotten their TE Tony Moeaki back which means they will run the ball much better and that gives Stanzi an escape outlet as well. Iowa has been the best ATS team in the Big-10 for years. They don't beat themselves, and have a balanced attack and a great fundamentally-sound defense year in and year out. The Hawkeyes are 46-27 ATS in their last 63 Big-10 games and are currently 7-1 ATS in their last eight against a winning team. Meanwhile the Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last five against a winning team and 0-8 ATS the past three seasons vs. defenses that allow 17 or fewer points per game! Under Bielema, this Badgers team is 2-11 ATS vs. teams that allow under 310 yards per game. Iowa is legit and we have the better team getting points here. I look for the Hawkeyes to at least keep it close and maybe go to 7-0.

The Buckeyes lost the battle of the stats last week in a big way against Wisconsin. They lost the first down battle 22-8 and were outgained by a 2-1 margin 368-184. They had the ball for just 17 minutes the entire game. Yet they were able to win the game 31-13. What did they do right? Looking at the numbers it is hard to understand how the Buckeyes won by 18. They did it with the No. 11 ranked defense that scored 14 points and special teams that scored on a 96-yard return. They were also very efficient, out-rushing the Badgers by a yard per carry and out-gaining them in the air by a yard per pass attempt. It proved the Buckeyes can win big even if their offense was not prolific. The Boilermakers are not a good football team, sitting at 1-5. They lost on the road to Minnesota last week by 15, in a game they should have been in. QB Joey Elliott will provide the Buckeyes defense with more opportunities as he has already completed nine to the wrong team. The Buckeyes’ offense will find a lot more room than they did last week when they face a defense ranked No. 76 that is allowing over 30 points per game. Ohio State's offensive struggles last week do not overly concern me. They have scored 30+ points in five of six games this year (only team they didn't lay 30 on was USC). They have put up 900 yards of offense in their two road games. That's all well and good, but should they be a road favorite after that performance? Consider this! Road favorites that have 5+ returning starters that are coming off a really bad offensive performance (gained under 225 yards) have gone 28-3 ATS over the past fifteen years! On top of that, Ohio State is 9-1 ATS the past three seasons as road chalk. The Buckeyes are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 conference games, including 17-4 ATS as a road favorite. They have covered seven straight after a SU win. The Boilermakers are just 11-24-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. This one is all Buckeyes.

Middle Tennessee State is no stranger to pulling off the upset over BCS Conference teams. They have already gone on the road this season and beat Maryland on the heels of beating them last year at home. Four years ago, they took down another SEC team in Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs are certainly vulnerable here as they have won just once on the road in their last nine tries! Although they still play tough at home, they have fizzled on the road. They have allowed 30+ points in four of six games this season including 40+ in two games! Middle Tennessee has already beaten Memphis in their only home game of the season. The bottom line is that this line is off because it is based on an SEC team playing a Sun Belt team. But in this case, we have a competent Sun Belt team that will be stoked at home to play an SEC team that has already proven to be a lethal combination. The Bulldogs don't wear the favorite hat well as they have dropped their last six as chalk. They are also 1-8 ATS since last season following a home game. The Blue Raiders have feasted in out-of-conference play to the tune of an 8-2 ATS mark and they add another notch to their belts here. Middle Tennessee gets the call.

The Nittany Lions have been back on the National map the last three years and will come into this one at 5-1. But there's some cause for concern for the Lions this season. The offense just isn't what it has been after losing most of its speed and game-breakers. Last year's team scored 45+ in seven of their games. Through five games against FBS teams this season, they have not topped the 35-point mark. Their lone loss came at home in a game they were favored by double-digits as the offense scored 10 points. But they have scored 28+ in five of their six games, you say? Look who they came against! They played Akron, Syracuse, Temple and E. Illinois. The spreads in those games? -29.5, -29.5, -29.5 and -39.5. So when you are laying 30 points, scoring 28 or 31 points just isn't impressive. The defense is still very strong, but when you start laying 17 with an offense that has shown it is not capable of piling up the points against good teams, you’re in dangerous territory. Minnesota has shown a capable and consistent offense that has scored 20+ in all six games, including versus Wisconsin, California and Air Force. If they get to even 14 or 17 here, Penn State will be hard pressed to cover this number very large number. The Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS on the road in their last four as a dog of 10.5 or more, and the Lions have dropped their last six against the number after rushing for under 100 yards. They are also 18-31 ATS under coach Paterno after a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Penn State offense is not the same as it was and this is too many points. I'm backing the Golden Gophers in this one.

The Glass Bowl has the reputation of being a lethal spot for opponents, but that was when Toledo was atop the MAC Conference. This certainly has not been the case recently. A stadium is only as good as the players playing in it, but the reputation gives a jolt to the line in favor of a competent opponent. The Rockets dropped five of six here a year ago and have already dropped one here this year so the shine has worn off. Northern Illinois lost to a surprisingly good Idaho Vandals team that has now won four straight as an underdog and dropped an 8-point decision to a superb 5-1 Wisconsin team. They have also gone on the road and beaten another Big-10 team, winning against Purdue. They are a potent offensive team that will play against a very poor Toledo defense that has allowed at least 30 points in all five of their games this season. The Huskies can match the Rockets score for score, but the difference is that the Rockets can't match the Huskies stop for stop. The Rockets just really struggle vs. teams that can match them offensively. Toledo is just 3-8 dating back to last season when they allow 28+ points and the Huskies will have no problem reaching that number today. Over the past three seasons, Toledo is 1-8 straight-up vs. teams that complete 62%+ of their passes (N. Illinois is averaging 62.6% completions). The Huskies beat Toledo 38-7 last season and I look for them to win again today. While I think they have a good shot at covering the 4 point spread, I don't want to lose this one if they win a close one so I'm going moneyline here.

The Baylor offense took a hit when QB Robert Griffin went down with an injury three weeks ago. But, replacement Nick Florence has put up similar numbers and has rushed for more yards per carry. The Bears come in at 3-2 with the only losses to Oklahoma and Connecticut. And, they own a nice road win Wake Forest. Iowa State has now dropped 10 straight games inside of the Big-12 and they sport a horrid 3-23 record in-conference over the last four years with two of the wins coming narrowly by 3 and 5 points. This is a bad teams that is in uncharted territory here - posted as a favorite, especially against a Baylor team that has a winning record and losses coming to teams far superior to the Cyclones. The Bears are improving. They once resided with the Cyclones in the basement of the Big-12, but they are now 6-0 ATS in their last six games in conference play and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 overall. The Cyclones have covered just three of their last ten games as a favorite, and the Bears have covered four of the last five meetings with Iowa State. Iowa State has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 62% of their passes and Baylor is a perfect 6-0 ATS the past two seasons vs. teams that allow 58% or higher. Art Briles-coached teams are 16-5 ATS when coming off a loss to a conference rival. The wrong team is favored in this game and I look for Baylor to win.

The Troy Trojans have been the team to beat in the Sun Belt Conference for the past few seasons. Their win over Arkansas State solidified their chances to get it done again this season. This class of players has had their share of problems with FIU however, as they have won the last two, but have failed to cover the number. They may be facing another difficult task on the road in this one. The Panthers have dropped four games, but have already taken down big numbers against Alabama and Rutgers. While sitting at 1-4 straight up, they are 3-2 ATS. The Panthers have gotten their offense on track, producing 34.3 ppg in their last three games and Troy hasn't been so defensive allowing 27 a game. The Panthers are always tough on turf where they have taken eight of their last ten against the number. Troy could be taking a nap here as they feel the only challenge left on the schedule comes in two weeks vs. UL Monroe. Troy is 2-11 ATS under head coach Larry Blakeney road games following back-to-back ATS wins. I like the Golden Panthers to sneak under the number at home in this one.

The Stanford program is back on its feet. The Cardinal won just one game four seasons ago. They built to four wins three seasons ago, and are coming off of their five win season last year Already in 2009, they own a 4-2 record in their quest to become Bowl eligible. Arizona is off a tough loss on the road at Washington and suddenly what was considered a top defense has surrendered 68 points and over 900 yards the last two weeks. It has led to them covering just one game in their five this season. Stanford QB Andrew Luck has already thrown for 1,166 yards at 8.8 yards per attempt, and has run for 170 more at 5.7 yards a carry. He forms a tough tandem with featured back Toby Gerhart who has 746 yards at 5.3 a pop. It gives the Cardinal a balanced offense - something the Wildcats have had trouble with recently. Stanford was pointspread dead, but recently has the weapons to come back from an ATS loss having covered four straight after suffering one ATS and are still under the radar covering seven of their last ten overall. The Wildcats are a not-so-wild 11-32 in their last 43 posted as a chalk. In what looks like a FG game either way, the points loom big here.

Looking at the Mean Green, they had their run early in the decade in the Sun Belt Conference. They certainly no longer resemble those teams. Since the ‘04-‘05 team that went to a Bowl game, they have fallen hard and fast. Over the last five years, North Texas has been a miserable 9-43 and recently has gone 2-15. That record is ugly unto itself but it is even uglier than it looks as the Mean Green has allowed 739 points in their last 17 games, or 43.5 ppg! It makes no sense to see a team that has been a colossal struggle favored. Two of their wins the last two years have come over teams that have not won a game (Ball State is 0-6 and Western Kentucky who joined the conference this season is 0-15 against FBS teams). How the Mean Green ends up as a favorite here is beyond me. Florida Atlantic is 0-4, but they have played Nebraska and South Carolina. In their other two games they lost to Conference leader UL Monroe by just 2 points and an improving Wyoming team by just 2. The wrong team is favored in this game. Under Howard Schnellenberger, the Owls are 12-4 ATS in road conference games and I like them to take that to 13-4 after this one.

Results: 3-6

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Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-21-2009
The Golden Hurricane will bring the nation's leading offense into the Sun Bowl for a Conference USA clash on ESPN. Tulsa isn't quite as offensive as they have been in the past, but they still ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-08-2009
Eastern Michigan suffered a serious blow when QB Andy Schmitt went down for the season with an injury and they simply aren't the type of program that can pull another competent QB right off t...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-06-2009
Troy has the potential to be a little flat in this game as they won a big game on the road their last time on the field vs. Arkansas State - the team that was supposed to challenge them for the Sun Be...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-01-2009
Syracuse has been a surprise this season, winning back-to-back games for the first time since 2006. While every win counts equally in the standings, you can hardly get excited about a win ov...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-30-2009
Hawaii was a very high profile offense under June Jones, going almost exclusively through the air. Last year the Warriors were breaking in a new QB and didn't have the lofty numbers as expected. N...