darrell,

We suffered our first losing week of the football season last week. After starting off 18-8, we hit the wall very hard going 0-4-1 last week. I am very sorry for that. This is a great time to read my article on bankroll management if you have not already. One thing it talks about is the inevitablity of losing streaks and losing weeks and how best to survive them. Over a long season, they are a certainty - the trick is making sure you don't let them wipe you out. The reality is that we can't sustain a 70% winning percentage through the whole season so mixed in with some 4-1 weeks will be weeks like last week. In any case, looking forward to a better showing this Saturday.

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Note: risk 1% of bankroll per unit. Never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any single pick.

Game: Temple vs. Clemson (Thursday 10/12 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on UNDER 56

Oh, it's not good to be Temple. These guys are absolutely awful and after facing Louisville, Minnesota and Vanderbilt over the past month, they now get the 12th ranked Clemson Tigers. Ouch! This, like those earlier games, is going to look like a strong college team vs. a high-school opponent. There probably are a couple of Texas high-school teams that could beat Temple. So, Temple has no chance and they may not score here. They put up a goose egg against both Louisville and Minnesota and they are averaging 6.8 points per game. Clemson's defense is fierce as they've allowed just 8 points per game over their last three games and 14 overall this season. Temple will be lucky to get a field goal in this game. So will Clemson score 50+ points? I don't think so. They are averaging just 29 per game on the road. This game is sandwiched between Wake and Georgia Tech so it could be time for a bit of an offensive letdown. With Bowden at the helm, they are 9-2 UNDER on the road off a road game. Also, games involving teams as bad as Temple that have lost 5+ games in a row have gone UNDER 68% of the time over the past decade.

The Wolfpack come in off another upset of the Seminoles on their home field. Wake Forest looked like it was on its way to beating Clemson before coming apart in the second half to lose to that game last week. It was their third straight ATS win. Clemson is the best team in the ACC, boasting a lot of speed all over the field. This should be an easier test for the Deamon Deacons. Wake has a very good defense, and should take advantage of that here. Chuck Amato is on the hot seat for a reason. State shows up against the teams it should not beat, and seemingly does not show up against the lesser opponents. With him at the helm, NC State is 2-9 ATS in October games. Meanwhile, Wake is 6-0 ATS during October games the past two seasons. A win here would go a long way to pointing Wake towards a bowl game. Expect a letdown from the Pack and a great effort from the Deacons.

SMU enter this contest having won its last five home football games, and its 3-3 mark is its best since 1992. A win here would give SMU its best start to a season since 1986. Phil Bennett is slowly making the turn for the Mustangs, and was a hot commodity when he came over from Kansas State. Marshalls at 1-4 and they've faced some stiff competition this season. MUs DeMyron Martin is back from injury and the former Freshman All American is important to the success of the Mustangs offense as he leads their ground attack. Marshall runs the spread attack, but has had a difficult time moving the football. This is maybe the worst Marshall team in a long time while SMU is on the mend. Marshall is averaging just 8 points per game on the road ahile giving up 33. Marshall is 0-7 in road conference games the past three seasons. SMU enjoys success at home and it should continue here.

San Jose St. is coming off a bye week and they are hosting the Aggies of Utah St. San Jose St. has played very well at home this year. They are 3-0 straight up and perfect ATS at home this year. On the road they lost to Washington in week one but covered the big spread, making a game of it. Utah st. comes in struggling on defense. They really can't stop anyone they have played. Utah St. is giving up 181.5 rushing yards a game and 217 passing yards a game and they rank 103rd in total defense on the year. They are getting 2.9 yards per rush while allowing 4.8. Teams have been able to run and pass at will on this Aggie team so far this year. In the 3 road games that Utah St. has played this year they have scored a total of 7 points and they have been shut out in their last 2 road games. On the other hand San Jose St. is playing with a lot of balance on offense this year. They are averaging 173.8 on the ground and 218 through the air on the year. Look for San Jose St. to really exploit Utah St.'s defense with the run and pass. San Jose St. has already beaten a Pac-10 team this year at home and played Washington to the wire at Huskey Stadium, which is a very tough place to play. Utah St. won their only game of the season last week and San jose St. had a bye week. Utah St. should come into this game feeling good about beating Fresno St. last week but I look for San Jose St. to be well rested and chomping at the bit to execute against a defense in Utah St. that is, to put it mildly, terrible. San Jose St has been averaging 27.6 points a game at home this year and this is their first conference game of the season. Look for the Spartans to come out and try and make a statement in their first conference game. Utah St. is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18. San Jose St. takes care of business vs. terrible teams like this as they are 19-4 ATS vs. teams at 25% SU or worse. San Jose St should run the Aggies right out of their stadium this weekend. Take the Spartans.

This is an interesting game for Michigan this week. They have to go into a hostile environment at Penn St. without there best playmaker in receiver Mario Manningham who is out with a knee injury. Both of these defenses are good and they are great against the run. Penn St. is giving up just 79 yds per game on the ground and Michigan is giving up only 40 per. Both these teams have played Minnesota where Minn rushed for 108 yds on 24 carries against Michigan, but Minn was only able to get 68 yards against Penn St. on 34 carries. When Penn St. took on the number one ranked Buckeyes this year they held them to just 138 yds rushing and 115 yds passing at the Horseshoe. The game was in doubt (14-6) until 2:00 to go when Ohio St returned 2 interceptions for TD's to make the score look better than the actual game. Penn St. being able to keep Ohio St.'s full complement of playmakers in check is saying something. Look for the Lions to make Chad Henne find another receiver target in place of Manningham by stuffing the box to shut down Mike Hart. Penn St will pound the ball on the ground as much as they can to try and keep the ball out of Michigan's hands and eat up the clock. Michigan will have a hard time moving the ball consistently against the Nittany Lions' defense. This is a night game in Happy Valley where Penn St. is very is hard to beat. They are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 home games and the favorite in this series is just 2-6 as close games abound. I like the 6 points that Penn St. is getting at home, at night, in a game that they could win straight-up.