Free Ncaa Football Picks - October 13, 2007

Hit our Wednesday 4-unit selection with Navy as they won outright. With that win, we are  +2.2 units on the season. We like the Thursday game as well as seven on Saturday as we look forward to a big weekend!

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Florida State at Wake Forest (Thursday 10/11 7:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Wake Forest +5.5

How people seem to have forgotten the recent past. Wake is a big home underdog here despite having beaten Florida State the first and only home shutout loss of the Bobby Bowden era (31 years). Was it a fluke? In a way yes. But, in another way, no. Wake has covered 7 of the last 9 games vs. the Seminoles. The Noles are rolling, having won four straight after losing to Clemson in their opener. But who have they beaten? UAB, Colorado and NC State. The only real test was vs. Alabama. So, they are 1-1 vs. quality opponents including 0-1 on the road. Wake has won three in a row and this place will be rocking tonight. Throw the stats out! This team is 10-5 ATS as a home underdog under head coach Jim Grobe. They know how to beat Florida State (or at least keep it close). Revenge you say for Florida State? They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 tries revenging a loss. FSU on a roll you say? The Seminoles are 11-21 ATS under Bowden on the road after covering two of their last three games adn 20-32 ATS on the road after a big win by 17+ points. Take the home dog and the points here.

Does the spread matter in this game? The last thirteen times these teams have met, the winner has won by double digits. Illinois is coming on, breaking the Top 25 with a surprising 5-1 mark. They have played good, defeating two Top 25 teams already (Penn State and Wisconsin). Iowa on the other hand is 2-4 and 0-3 in conference play. They are just 5-13 ATS dating back to last year including 2-9 vs. conference foes. This will be a matchup of strength on strength. The Illini have the 12th best rushing attack in the country (261 yards per game) while Iowa is strong against the run (allowing 3.1 yards per rush and 115 yards per game). But, Illinois is a perfect 7-0 ATS the past couple of seasons vs. good rushing defenses (those allowing under 120 yards per game). Illinois is motivated by their great play and ranking. They are the more talented team here and in the past that, has proven to be the deciding factor. We like Illinois to win and cover this small number.

Wyoming won last year but it's been 16 years since the Cowboys have won back-to-back games in this series. Before last year, New Mexico had won six in a row. The Lobos have had an extra week to rest and should be ready to exact some revenge. QB Donovan Porterie is the #3 MWC QB hitting 66% of his passes (7 TD, 3 INT). Wyoming tends to struggle against good passing teams as they are 1-8 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that complete 58%+ of their passes. After a strange opener vs. UTEP, the Lobos are averaging 39 points per game. New Mexico is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games and under head coach Rocky Long, this team is a superb play off a bye (an incredible 9-1 SU)! Under Long, too, they are 18-4 ATS following a home loss including 6-0 the past three seasons. New Mexico is a very live dog here.

Two cross-state 5-1 teams collide in a game that has been dominated by Texas Tech in the recent past. The Red Raiders have won six in a row straight-up at home and have covered 14 of the last 18 in the series. The Texas Tech offense looks unstoppable right now, averaging 52.5 per game, scoring no fewer than 42 points in any game. QB Graham Harrell has thrown 28 touchdowns to just 3 INTs and is completing 74% of his passes! He should feast on a very porous A&M pass defense. Tech's defense started out bad but since switching defensive coordinators a couple of weeks ago, they have allowed just over 200 yards per game. This team rolled up on a Big 12 team last week 42-17 so they can handle A&M. The total in this game is 69.5 points and the Red Raiders could get 50+ themselves. The Aggies are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games vs. teams that score 31+ points per game. They are also just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 as a road underdog. Tech rolls here.

Army lost three offensive linemen after last season and it has shown, as they rank 115th offensively. It will be a monumental task to stay in the game vs. a Central Michigan team that is loaded offensively. Army will struggle to just keep them off the field. Central Michigan is heading for another great season and perhaps a MAC Championship. Butch Jones, the former WR coach at West Virginia, has taken over. He has made the offense better with the implementation of a spread offense with a top flight QB and a pair of outstanding wideouts. This is a team capable of hanging 50+ on any given week, and it will be hard for Army to avoid a shootout (not a good prospect for a bad Army offense). The biggest surprise for CMU is they have answered a big preseason question mark: Could they run the ball? They have answered with a resounding yes as they have averaged 166 ypg. CMU has gone 10-0 ATS coming home after a road game. When NCAA offenses click to the tune of 50+ points the previous week and are then instilled as a big favorite (10.5-21), they have been pointspread eaters to the tune of 64-28 ATS. When laying double digits, you want to be confident the better team won't have a let down. We expcet CMU to be focused here as this is their last home game of the season and they have a non-conference game on deck. CMU is 15-4 ATS overall the past couple of seasons including 10-2 as a favorite. Army is averaging just 18.7 points per game (13.7 on the road) against an extremely weak schedule. CMU can score. Army can't. Take the favorite here.

Washington State suffered an emotionally draining defeat to ASU last week. WSU outplayed ASU but lost on a missed field goal at the end of the game. They upset Oregon last year and this year but this year will be different. We like Oregon to win running away. Oregon is off a bye and under head coach Mike Bellotti, this team is 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS with an extra week to prepare. Oregon will have the combined motivation of beating a team that upset them last year, and redeming themselves for their upset loss to Cal two weeks ago. The Ducks have the best offense in the Pac 10 (529 yards and 43.6 points per game). Under Bellotti, Oregon is 22-11 ATS as a big favorite of 10-21 points. Washington State has already lost games against the spread as 14 and 25 point underdogs. This one seems big but we like a motivated Oregon to put up 50+ here and there's no way that the Cougars keep up.

This Cal offense is just plain awesome. The offensive line has allowed just four sacks and the team is putting up 39.4 points per game (44 at home). Nate Longshore is completing 63% of his passes. The Bears spanked the Beavers 41-13 last season and we expect more of the same here. They have now moved up to #3 in the AP poll and are motivated to avoid the letdowns that have plagued Top 10 teams this year. In contrast, they have motivation to put up big numbers here to maintain their ranking. Cal is well rested and focused, having played their last game on September 29. They won't let down against this Oregon State team. Despite the big win last year, Cal hasn't won a home game against OSU for ten years! What a chance to put that embarrasing run to rest. A motivated and focused Cal team rolls here.

Memphis is better than most people think. They are 2-3 but they could very easily be 4-1 if not for a few plays. They have outgained their opponents on the year. They have had 10 days to prepare for this one and they are 10-2 ATS off a bye. MTSU has just one win to five losses this year. That win came against Flordia International. Outside of that lone win, they are being manhandled, averaging 18.8 points per game while giving up 34.4. On the road they are allowing 552 yards and 42 poitns per game. Twice this year they have been held to under 20 yards rushing in a game. Memphis is better than you think and they outclass their opponent here in a big way. At home, look for them to win big.

Results: 5-3

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• View our 2007 college footballseason prior picks here.
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• Don't forget to read our Football lines and odds here.
• Here we show our College football betting philosophy.
• Hop over to our college football prior picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2007 college football predictions.
• Check out our updated ncaa football prediction.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-10-2007
Navy will play the Panthers in Pittsburgh tonight, bringing in the nation's #2 rushing attack (348 yards per game). Navy remains a one dimensional team. They run the triple option a...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-04-2007
It has been quite a story in Lexington. The football team is getting some attention usually reserved for basketball. The Wildcats have gotten off to a 5-0 start, and it is an explosive offense that ha...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-03-2007
Southern Miss will be at home tonight for the first time against a D-1A opponent. Rice will enter having allowed 53 points per game in their three D-1 games. With just six returning starters on d...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-28-2007
Air Force heads to Annapolis to play for the Commander-in-Chief trophy in what is the third road game in four weeks for the Falcons. Under new head coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force has pulled o...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-21-2007
Oklahoma has roared out of the games to a perfect 3-0 mark both SU and ATS. They have outscored opponents 184-26. They have dominated completely. A perfect time to fade them. Oddsmakers opened this on...