Free Football Handicapping - October 11, 2008

We have seven Saturday picks on the college gridiron...

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Minnesota at Illinois (Saturday 10/11 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Minnesota +12.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Gophers are perhaps one of the most improved teams in the country. Last year their lone win came early against Miami Ohio, but this year they are 5-1 and Bowl worthy with a win here. Adam Weber has been big, having thrown for 1,428 yards with eight TDs and just two INTs. The running game has accounted for 14 TDs already as well - a far cry from last year. Illinois is nowhere near where they were last year, but they are still a pretty good team. The offense has been generating points, but for this team to be giving double-digits to a competent offense makes no sense. The Illini are surrendering just about 30 ppg, so Minnesota is going to get its points here. Don't forget they put up 21 on the road vs Ohio State. The Gophers defense is vastly better as well. After giving up 30+ last year in all but one game, they have allowed 30 just once this season. Too many points here, and I'll take the Gophers to hang tough.

The Nebraska defense was really exposed in a big way last week on their own home field. The Cornhuskers allowed 663 yards to a potent Missouri attack, and now will play on the road for the first time all season vs another lethal attack. Just think about it... a weak Virginia Tech squad put 35 points up on Nebraska on the road. What will the Tech team do at home? The Red Raiders have something to go with this offense this season - a veteran defense that is holding teams to 336 ypg. They give up a lot of passing yards, but mostly because they are playing from so far ahead, as they are out-scoring teams by 29.4 ppg. This team just went on the road and scored 58 against a decent Kansas State team, and I would expect the total will be in that range here as well. My how things have changed... I like the Red Raiders to blow out the defenseless Huskers.

The Broncos will put their unbeaten MAC record on the line as they travel to face the Bulls in Buffalo. Buffalo has had problems putting points on the board equal to their offensive output of late. Despite over 400 yards of offense last week, and a flawless game (0 turnovers), the Bulls offense managed just 25 points. The week before with 300 passing yards, the Bulls managed just 21. They are having trouble cashing in. Western Michigan has been a dynamic scoring machine at home at 37 ppg, but the road tells a different tale. They are averaging just 15.5 ppg and if you go back to a year ago, it isn't a new problem. They averaged just 15.7ppg their last three on the road last season. This game looks offensive, but when you get down to the situation these teams find themselves in for this one, it takes on a completely different look. This one is posted too high for the game circumstances, and I'll ride the UNDER here.

Temple has relied on their defense to stay in games after losing their QB, but Chester Stewart had a coming out party last week, and has to be confident. He three for three scores last week on the road, in an upset win vs Miami Ohio. The Owls defense has allowed just 11.2 ppg if you take out the game where they were completely mis-matched vs Penn State. Getting a TD+ in this situation shows some serious value, especially with a confident Stewart now getting comfortable taking snaps. Central Michigan has played all three of their "like competition" games to within 7 points. What their offense gets, their defense gives. While they have scored 27.7 ppg in those three games, they have yielded 28.3 ppg. This has the look of another one that should be decided by a TD or less, so the points here are the way to go.

Miami Ohio struggled once again last week offensively, as they got just 10 points at home vs Temple. They have now managed just 49 points in their four games vs FBS teams, or 12.3 ppg. They have done some good things defensively however, as they are allowing just 331 ypg. N. Illinois comes in losers of seven of their last nine, going back to last year. They have faced some weak defensive teams and last week against a good defense, the Huskies were limited to just 9 points. The news is much better on the defensive side, where they have allowed just 289 ypg to go along with just 15.2 ppg. The Huskies limited Tennessee to just 2.2 ypc and 225 total yards. The Broncos have had no difficulty finding the end-zone at home, as they have put up 37ppg on their own field. The road has been a different story, as this season they have managed to average just 15.5 ppg. Going back to last year, the last three games saw them average just 15.7 ppg on the road. That's more than three TDs less on the road. The total for this one is reflected on an overall average. While the Bulls offense has not been scoring at the rate the yards would indicate, the Broncos have not been effective on the road producing points either. The calling card for both these teams has been defense all season, and this should be a game of field position, and limited opportunities. I like this one to go under the total. 

The Bears thought they had bridged the gap to the big-boys in the Big-12, but were destroyed at home by Oklahoma 49-17 last week. All the talk of the reborn Bears team, and standout Freshman QB Robert Griffin, had to take a back seat last week. But, the public still loves this team (67% on them this week). As confident as they had to be after a close loss vs. Connecticut, they have to now be wondering and doubting. The hype just hasn't translated into the win column. The Cyclones may be just the opposite - severely underrated. They almost beat Kansas, losing by just 2, and lost to a very good UNLV team in OT. They also held their own vs. a good Iowa team. They are going against a team that is more on their level here, that must also be full of doubt right now, and emotionally drained after thinking they could give OU a game. The Cyclones are in a good spot here, and could steal the win. I expect them to at least hang around as they have all year in what has the makings of a field-goal game.

UCLA has held its own at home, fueled mostly by a defense that has kept them in games. They have taken to the road once, losing to BYU 59-0. They motivated in that game by revenge (BYU beat them in their Bowl game), but that obviously didn't help at all. The Ducks were hammered by a motivated USC team last week. I look for them to turn the tables this week and charge into this contest much the same as USC did to them off a loss. Kevin Craft had thrown for just one TD all season before facing a hapless Washington State team at home. The Ducks produce points in a hurry and average close to 500 yards and 41.2 points per game. Oregon has produced 19 sacks this season, and with a stout running defense that will leave Craft in 3rd and long all afternoon, he will be extremely vulnerable. The Ducks score in bunches, while the Bruins can't move the ball. I'll ride the Ducks here in what should be an easy win.

Results: 2-5

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

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• Here we show our college football lines and odds.
• Check out our updated free college football weekly predictions.
• Updated today: football blog.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

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NCAA-Football-Picks-October-02-2008
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NCAA-Football-Picks-September-30-2008
Florida Atlantic is off two straight losses by a combined score of 54-3. Their other loss of the season was by a score of 52-10. Middle Tennessee has gotten a lot of credit for beating Maryland. That ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-25-2008
We're 8-2 thus far on our mid-week CFB plays. We look to take that to 9-2 with this pick. The Trojans take their #1 ranking to Corvallis to take on the Beavers of Oregon State, a team no one thing...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-17-2008
This game could get ugly, as Penn State has been hanging some huge numbers against some meager competiton. The question is, how much will Penn State score? Let's not forget that Temple held Connec...