Free Pick College Football - October 10, 2009

We finished 8-4 in week 5. After a loss on Thursday night we are 18-11 (62%) over the past three weeks. As I did last week, I have eleven Saturday picks again this week.

College Football Prop Bet of the Year Update
It's not often you win a season-wins prop bet before the mid-way point in the season, but we've all but done it. After their loss to lowly Maryland to drop them to 2-3 on the season, our Clemson prop bet is looking very secure. Clemson would have to go 7-0 the rest of the season for us to lose. Not gonna happen. Hope everyone loaded up on that one.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	35-29 last 64 picks	55%	+$560
MLB	260-208 last 468 picks	56%	+$10100
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$28610

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Boston College at Virginia Tech (Saturday 10/10 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston College +13.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Hokies have recovered nicely since their opening game defeat to unbeaten Alabama by winning four straight. But question marks remain. This is a team that is trademarked by defense and special teams. But looking at their games, so far the defense is certainly not up to the level of past teams. They have already allowed two teams to run the ball for over 200 yards - Alabama 268 and Nebraska 207. Additionally, lowly Marshall had success running the ball on them gaining 4.5 yards per carry with 126 yards on 28 carries. Then last week Duke penetrated their secondary for 359 yards. That's not what we are used to seeing from Beamer teams. Boston College isn't a great offensive team, but they can run the ball which is what has not gone well for the Hokies. This line is puzzling as well, as Marshall was a 19-point dog here, and now BC is 13.5. So on a neutral field the oddsmakers are saying BC is a 5.5 favorite? I'm not buying it and this is a major overlay. The Eagles are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. ranked teams. They are also 29-15 ATS the past fifteen years vs. teams at .750 or above. As I noted in my Upset Alert section, I think the Eagles have a shot at a win here but at a minimum I like them to cover the large number.

We were on Wisconsin last week when they upset Minnesota. Again I think this is a game in which the line has the Gophers overrated. They have struggled to a 3-2 mark that is flanked by just a 1-2 mark at home, having committed 10 turnovers already this season. The offense is very vanilla and the passing game is one-dimensional: Weber to Decker. Decker has caught 43 passes while the rest of the team has 49 catches. Now Weber has begun to force the issue, with only one receiver he trusts. It has led to six TD passes and six INTs - a bad ratio. Purdue has a secondary that consists of four returning starters and should be keyed on stopping this combo. The Boilermakers might be 1-4 but they have not been beaten by more than seven points. Two of the losses were by 3 points to Notre Dame and by 2 points on the road at Oregon. Joey Elliot has done a much better job at QB than most expected, and it has opened up room for RB Ralph Bolden to notch 5.6 ypc. The Golden Gophers are just 2-6 ATS as a favorite within this range, and the Boilers own a 7-2-1 ATS mark in the last 10. Purdue is averaging over 30 points per game while Minnesota has allowed 30 points per game over their last three and the Gophers are 19-71 ATS over the past fifteen years when allowing 28+ points in a game. I like Purdue here.

Eastern Michigan suffered a serious blow when QB Andy Schmitt went down for the season with an injury and they simply aren't the type of program that can pull another competent QB right off the bench. The Chippewas have an explosive offense and a much better defense this season than a year ago, and facing a team at home without an experienced QB has allowed for a line here of over three TDs. It is quite likely that we see a game that is out of hand by the third quarter and a lot of clock running by the Chips. Eastern Michigan has worn that label playing 14-6 to the UNDER as a +10.5 dog or higher, where teams ease up. They are also 23-10 UNDER on turf in their last 33. The Chips sport a 9-4 mark to the UNDER in their last 13 as a home favorite. I like this one to go UNDER the posted total.

There were certainly questions about the Razorback defense after they gave up 52 to Georgia and 35 to Alabama in consecutive weeks. But, we saw Arkansas go on the road and hold the nation's leading offense at the time to 19 points last week. With revenge in mind here, I expect a good effort from the Arkansas defense in this game. Auburn has surprised this year, but they really have been beating up on cupcakes for the most part including Louisiana Tech, Mississippi State and Ball State. Their lone impressive win came last week vs. Tennessee. The Tigers may not be as good offensively as suggested by results as they benefitted from six West Virginia turnovers for a lot of help on their way to 41. Their only road game thus far produced just two TDs. Bobby Petrino coached teams are 16-6 ATS at home during the first month of the season. I like Arkansas to hang tight here and have a chance at the upset. I also like the UNDER in this game. These two teams have each displayed explosive offenses and with that comes a lofty total - as high a total as I can remember seeing in an SEC game. Games like this often take on a strategy different than suggested by the previous results as neither will likely want to get into a shootout, and will keep the pressure on the defense to make a stop. They will likely use more of a ball-control type offense to manage the game. The Tigers come into this one sporting a 12-5 mark to the UNDER off an ATS win. These teams have met every year since the ‘91-‘92 season and the most points ever scored in their game has been 58. The last two games combined would not have gone over this total. Take the Razorbacks and the UNDER.

This is a huge game for both teams, but moreso for the Rebels. Ranked in the top 10 to start the season, they started off with two big wins scoring 97 and allowing just 20 in their first two games. Then came a nationally televised tilt at South Carolina. In that game, Mississippi wilted and lost outright as a favorite, mustering just 10 points. They were quickly written off by the public who was backing them to the tune of 75% in that game. They looked bad and now no one wants to touch them. But hang on. That was a road game against a very good defensive team (S. Carolina ranked 14th in the nation on defense). That was a bad situation for Mississippi and it's why we were on the Gamecocks in that game. But, let's not overreact to one loss. It was an off day for Jevon Snead and the Rebels who bounced back from that game to beat Vanderbilt 23-7 last week. This game will be at home and they can recover from that S. Carolina loss in a huge way by upsetting the unbeaten Crimson Tide. Alabama's defense is good but so is Ole Miss' defense, ranked 6th in the nation in scoring defense. The Rebs are 9-3 ATS as an underdog vs. a ranked team at home and they Houston Nutt-coached teams are 32-17 ATS in the underdog role. I like Mississippi to keep this one close.

The Hilltoppers are new to this level of football, and they are taking some painful licks in the process. They have only had 18 games against BCS teams and have won just one, dropping 16 in a row. So seeing them getting less than a TD is quite appealing. The Hilltoppers defense is allowing 6.6 yards per carry against them, and has registered just two sacks on the season. That has left them ranked No. 118 on defense. But that isn't even their biggest problem. They have an offense that ranks No. 119. Florida International is certainly far and away from being a national power, but they can throw the ball, averaging 242 yards per game through the air and I expect them to destroy the Hilltoppers’ secondary. Their defense isn't good, but unfortunately the Hilltoppers simply don't have the talent to exploit it. I'm going with Florida International in this one.

Michigan is a much-improved team, but their miracle finish vs. Notre Dame at home has changed this team into something they are not, at least in the eyes of the public and oddsmakers. We saw a hint of it last week as they opened as a favorite and by kickoff were a four-point underdog. They went on to show the truth in a loss at not-so-highly regarded Michigan State. After four games at home to start the season, last week was their first road game and they must do it again on the road this week. The biggest hole for Michigan is on defense. Eliminating uncompetitive games vs. Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan, the Wolverines have allowed 31 points per game. They face an Iowa team that has the defensive prowess to shut down the Wolverines offense, and that simply puts added pressure on a defense that has trouble getting stops. We were on Iowa vs. Penn State as a 5-unit play two weeks ago when they won as a 10 point dog. I liked them so much in that game because of their defense. The same applies here. The Hawkeyes won that game by holding Penn State (who has better offense than Michigan) to just 10 points on the road. And they were able to generate 21 against a Penn State defense that is much better than Michigan's. So, if Iowa can win in Happy Valley, they should have no problem here at home vs. a weaker team. The Hawkeyes have delivered a 37-17 ATS mark in their last 54 at home. They are 10-2 ATS as a favorite from 3.5-10 points and 8-1 ATS after 5+ straight wins under Kirk Ferentz. Michigan is 2-6-1 ATS the past few years as a Big Ten underdog. And, Rich Rodriguez is just 1-10 ATS vs. teams that allow14 or fewer points per game! I like Iowa in this one.

All the talk in this one revolves around two things: the status of Tim Tebow and the dominance of LSU under the lights in Baton Rouge. I'll address the Tebow status first. The right move is to keep him out here but there's a decen chance he plays. Urban Meyer said this week that doctors assured him Tebow would not be any more susceptible to a second concussion Saturday as he would be later in the season. Even if he does not play (and I always plan for the worst), Florida has the advantage everywhere. This is a National Championship team returning depth and just about every meaningful starter from that team. Whiel he gets the media attention, it isn't all about Tebow. This line reflects the very strong reality he won't play as if he were healthy, we'd be laying double-digits. Now, what about LSU at home? Yes, the Tigers have been a force here, but how many of those games were against the talent they will face on the other side here? Probably none! The reality is that since 1992, LSU is 5-19 ATS at home vs. teams at .750 or better! Over the past three seasons they are 1-11 ATS vs. teams that average 4.75+ rushing yards per carry (Flordia averages 7.0 per tote). LSU is hyped this year, but they certainly haven't lived up to it on the field other than the win column which makes them look better than they are. They scored on a punt return and an INT vs. Mississippi State, had a +4 turnover advantage and won by just 4 points over a very mediocre team. They pulled one out late vs. Georgia in a game where the offense generated one TD. They were outgained by LA Lafayette - are you kidding me? They were also outgained by Washington by an amazing 160 yards, had an INT for a TD there, as well as +1 in the turnover battle. Florida is simply better all around and has more team speed and depth. The Gators are 8-0 ATS vs. winning teams dating back to last season. LSU is 0-8 ATS the past three seasons vs. winning teams! A lot of people like the Tigers here, but not me. I’m going with the Gators.

When BYU stunned Oklahoma on the road in week one, a preseason BCS Buster was looking like a team that could run the table. Then they met up with Florida State and were abruptly and rudely awakened to a 26-point home loss. It definitely took some of the steam out of this team. The defense, which was supposed to be superb, allowed 23 to Colorado State and 17 to Utah State - two weak teams. Meanwhile the offense isn't reaching the heights it did a year ago. That makes them vulnerable to big pointspreads, especially on the road. The Runnin’ Rebels may not defend very well, but they can score and score a lot. Along with BYU yielding more than its share, the Rebels can hang close enough here to at least get a backdoor cover, if not better. The Cougars are not doing well with the numbers at just 2-8 ATS after a win and 1-5 ATS against a team with a losing record. The Rebels have cashed five of their last six as a home dog. Under head coach Mike Sanford, the REbels are 9-2 ATS at home followin an ATS loss. I'll go UNLV here.

The Huskies went from a team that lost 15 straight games to finally getting in the win column vs. Idaho. Then they did the unthinkable in beating USC (a week 3 Upset Alert here). This team hung 30 points on a poor Notre Dame defense and sprung for 42 vs. Idaho. But, they have struggled to score points against good defenses. They have been grounded against the likes of LSU at No. 39, No. 40 Stanford, and USC (No. 5), averaging just 17.7 points per game vs. these teams. The problem here is that they will face a strong Arizona defense that ranks No. 23 in the country and the points will not come easy. The Wildcats scored 37 against a weak Oregon State team, but on just 388 yards, so it’s a bit misleading as they were actually outgained. They had just 17 points vs. Iowa and 19 vs. Central Michigan. They will likely need their biggest output of the season here to push this one over the total, and I don't see it happening on the road. They are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four as a favorite. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS to the UNDER in their last seven as a dog of three or less. I like this one to go UNDER the total.

Results: 3-8

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Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-06-2009
Troy has the potential to be a little flat in this game as they won a big game on the road their last time on the field vs. Arkansas State - the team that was supposed to challenge them for the Sun Be...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-01-2009
Syracuse has been a surprise this season, winning back-to-back games for the first time since 2006. While every win counts equally in the standings, you can hardly get excited about a win ov...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-30-2009
Hawaii was a very high profile offense under June Jones, going almost exclusively through the air. Last year the Warriors were breaking in a new QB and didn't have the lofty numbers as expected. N...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-24-2009
Ole Miss was the surprise team in the SEC a year ago. They even went into the swamp and shocked the eventual National Champion Gators for their only loss of the season. The Rebels will again be good o...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-18-2009
The Broncos have become a mainstay in BCS talk every season. This year's 2-0 start has them up to No. 10 in the rankings and the talk is again on. This team is definitely for real, but at what poi...