Picks Football - October 09, 2008

Last week we had a tough go of it as several of our big dogs failed us late. We remain at 55% on the season. I like a couple of mid-week games this week which we have below.  The Saturday picks will be out Friday...

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Troy at Florida Atlantic (Tuesday 10/07 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Florida Atlantic +4 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)

Troy and Florida Atlantic hookup in Sun Belt action in a matchup of what were supposed to be the top two teams in the conference. Florida Atlantic saw that dream vanish on the last play of the game at MTSU. They outplayed MTSU all game but lost it on a hail mary as time expired. As a result, the Owls are definitely the team in need here. They finally broke through on Troy last year, and have most of those parts back from last year. Meanwhile, Troy has a new QB and they lost several key players. Most will gauge this Owl team on a mediocre performance at MTSU, and their poor showing to date. What most fail to realize is this will be only the Owl's second home game since November 10th of last year! The competition they have faced this year has been absolutely brutal (Texas, Michigan State, Minnesota). This is an experienced team, and coming home after four of five on the road. I expect the Owls to play well and likely win this one outright.

When Clemson dropped their opener to Alabama, everyone thought it was an upset. Looking back, it was anything but, as the Tide has shown to be one of the top teams in the nation. The Tigers proceeded to destroy team they were supposed to beat (Citadel, NC State and S. Carolina State) by a combined score of 126-26. Then came a loss to an improved Maryland team, and suddenly they are underdogs here. Clemson outplayed Maryland in every single facet of the game, except the final score, and that puts value on them here. Wake hasn't exactly been dominating teams. They needed a FG against Mississippi at home on the last play of the game to survive, and they did not find the end-zone at all vs Florida State. Last week they dropped a game at home to Navy as a 17 point favorite, down 17-0 at one time. Wake rushed 35 times in that game for just 43 yards! Clemson is 41-24 ATS as an underdog over the past fifteen years while Wake is 9-21 ATS as a home favorite over that span. Under Bowden, this Clemson team is 10-1 ATS as a road dog of a touchdown or less. The Deacons are overrated at this point, and Clemson underrated. I will take the points here.

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our How we pick college football winners.
• Don't forget to read our 2008 college football predictions here.
• Check out our updated NCAA football Game-of-Week Analysis.
• Check out college football record here.
• Check out sports betting college football here.
• Check out our updated 2008 football season picks.
• View our NCAA football ATS records here.
• Hop over to our Football odds and lines here.
• Check out expert football pick here.
• Here we show our blog football.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-02-2008
The Blue Devils at 3-1? It looks like a misprint. But they actually should be 4-0. This is no doubt an inspired and improved team. They are off their largest margin of victory since 1998, having ended...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-30-2008
Florida Atlantic is off two straight losses by a combined score of 54-3. Their other loss of the season was by a score of 52-10. Middle Tennessee has gotten a lot of credit for beating Maryland. That ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-25-2008
We're 8-2 thus far on our mid-week CFB plays. We look to take that to 9-2 with this pick. The Trojans take their #1 ranking to Corvallis to take on the Beavers of Oregon State, a team no one thing...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-17-2008
This game could get ugly, as Penn State has been hanging some huge numbers against some meager competiton. The question is, how much will Penn State score? Let's not forget that Temple held Connec...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-17-2008
The Wildcats have lit-up the scoreboard in their first two games, putting up 45 against North Texas and 69 against Montana State. But don't be fooled. Last year this team tallyed 34 gaianst San Jo...