College Football Winning Pick - October 06, 2007

We have one Thursday pick and five for Saturday...

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Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Kentucky at South Carolina (Thursday 10/04 7:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on South Carolina -4

It has been quite a story in Lexington. The football team is getting some attention usually reserved for basketball. The Wildcats have gotten off to a 5-0 start, and it is an explosive offense that has set the pace. Andre Woodson has been nearly perfect throwing for 1,309 yards with 13 TDs and just one interception. Tonight they face a team that has absolutely dominated them, and will be bringing the No. 1 ranked pass defense into the mix. Steve Spurrier has never lost to Kentucky in 17 games, and he has the right mindset to stop a competent offense and that is his veteran defense with 10 of 11 starters back from last year and 17 of its 18 top tacklers. That defense has allowed just 106 yards in the air per game. The Gamecocks have won seven straight over UK. Last year, the Kentucky offense did much the same, but even with that they were still out-gained by nearly 80 yards per game. The soft part of the schedule is over now. Last year they opened 3-2 on their way to an eight-win season. The problem was the tougher defenses. They managed 12 points at Tennessee, none at LSU, only seven at Florida and 17 at home against SC. They averaged 35-points per game (PPG) against everyone else. South Carolina has their best team in several years, and playing at home with the nations top pass defense. We will ride them here.

Ball State came within a point of winning at Nebraska and a point away from winning at Miami (Ohio). They led both games through 57 minutes and out-played both of them. They have erased everyone else. It is a high-octane offense led by Nate Davis, who has thrown for 1,436 yards, 14 TD passes to just two interceptions, and they have also ground out nearly 1,000 yards rushing. This is a team that put up 610 yards on the road in Lincoln, and averaged over 500 yards a game on the road. Now they are home against a team in C. Michigan that took on two BCS conference schools and were outscored 97-29, big difference! C. Michigan is a pass-first offense with two solid receivers and not much of a defense. If they have to get in a shoot-out with Ball State they will get blown out. Ball State also has Chris Miller, who has punted to an average of 46.2 yards, to the 38 by CMU. They also have a PK with range and seven FGs already, while CMU struggles in that department. CMU has just one lone FG on the season, from just 35 yards out. At home, better on both sides of the ball, and special teams and we look for a rout.

Funny how things go sometimes. The Horned Frogs were thought to have the team this season to beat Texas, but they were hammered 34-13. Then we found Texas struggling, and they weren't as good as advertised either. So where does that leave TCU? It left them playing at Air Force, where they lost again. Now they have most likely lost Andy Dalton, their QB, and must go back to Marcus Jackson, who has been completely ineffective. Jackson is completing just 44% of his passes (17-38), and must face a defense, that has the #4 ranking in the country. Wyoming has had one test, and beat up on Virginia by the score of 23-3 in Larimie. Virginia managed just five first downs, and this Cowboy defense is stingy. They even held Boise State on the road to 24 points and just 300 yards of offense. They were even good enough offensively, to survive seven turnovers and a kickoff return for a TD, and win on the road vs. Ohio. TCU has another problem and that is that they may not only be without their QB. And they are also likely without Tommy Blake who has had 17 sacks in his career prior to this season. The defense has been less than expected, and banged up, and the offense has not done much. Wyoming lost at TCU last year, but not without many chances, failing to score from TCU territory three times in the game. We like the Cowpokes to flex their muscles in Laramie, and show TCU who is now king of the hill.

Iowa has won the last five games in this series and it's now payback time for Penn State. Both teams are bottom-dwelling in the Big 10. Which team has it worse? Iowa who got hammered last game at home 38-20 by Indiana (were down 21-0 at one point) as a double digit favorite. They have absolutely no offense. After a couple of cupcake games, they have faced Iowa State, Wisconsin and Indiana. In those games, they are averaging 15.3 points per game. In their three road games they are averaging 281 total yards and 14 ppg. Penn State is 3-0 at home averaging 45 points per game. Iowa is 2-12 ATS the past three seasons following a home game. Under Paterno, the Nittany Lions are 14-5 ATS at home following a conference road-loss and 24-14 ATS off two straight ATS losses. We like Penn State to open it up against a defenseless Hawkeyes team.

Cincinnati is off to a tremendous start opening 5-0 SU and ATS. Rutgers is an amazing story as well, and just as quickly as they became public darlings, they have just as quickly fallen out of public graces and odds-makers respect. One question to ask is this: What would this line have been at the beginning of the season? What would this line have been if Rutgers beat Maryland? We think in either case, very close to 10. This is a complete overreaction to the Rutgers loss to unsung Maryland. Was it a case of looking ahead to this game against Cincinnati, as they spoiled Rutgers perfect season? Was Rutgers exposed last week as a fraud? Our answer is neither. Rutgers was pounded at the line of scrimmage by a vastly bigger and stronger Maryland offensive line. Rutgers defensive line is built for speed, not overwhelming strength. Maryland averaged 320 pounds across the front and just physically dominated Rutgers. We have seen many times where the Rutgers speed and getting to the ball dominates. Cincinnati does not have that physical size up front, and this will be an entirely different game at the line of scrimmage. There is also the huge revenge factor, as their are 1,000s of students wearing T-shirts denoting this game as such. There is also a coaching staff and 36 returning letterman that carry that sting from last season when Rutgers went into Cincinnati with a hangover after their big win over Louisville, and lost a tight one. Cincinnati also played three time zones away last week in San Diego, and there is one more factor to consider here. Rutgers played such a soft schedule early they had nothing on the field to ready them for the likes of Maryland. The same can be said for Cincinnati this week, as they have played no one to ready them for the likes of Rutgers. It is also worth noting that Cincinnati is just 6-22 SU in their last 28 road games. We were on Cincinnati huge last year in this game but in 2007 we switch sides. We think this is a bargain laying just 3.5 on the Scarlet Knights.

Here we have a game in the Bayou State that could certainly have national Championship implications. Florida certainly took a lot of the luster out of this game with a stunning loss to a mediocre Auburn team at home. They appear to have either got caught on the look-ahead, or are not as good as billed. The hang-onto-your-life win at Mississippi tends to have us leaning to the fact that this team is a far cry from last year's National Championship team. LSU meanwhile, has played as advertised, one of the top two teams in the country. They have allowed just four TDs in five games, and they will undoubtedly be at their optimum performance for the Gators. LSU is 43-6 SU at home, and this is their best team ever, and should turn the tables on last years 23-10 defeat at Florida. The LSU defense allows just 174.6 yards per game – No. 1 in the country. And, they are in the top 14 against both the run and the pass. They have allowed just 6.4 ppg. Florida lost a lot of key experienced players to the NFL, and despite its 23-10 win at home over LSU last year, they were outplayed. LSU had eight more first downs and more total yardage despite the fact they made five turnovers, handing the ball to Florida repeatedly. This time there is revenge, this time it is at home, and this time LSU is better on both sides of the ball. We will ride the Tigers on their way to the BCS Championship Game at year's end.

Results: 2-3

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Check out 2007 college football prior pick results here.
• Don't forget to visit our football ATS records.
• Here we show our college football Game Analysis.
• Read our blog football here.
• Don't forget to visit our sportsbook reviews football.
• Don't forget to visit our Football odds and lines.
• Updated today: College football betting philosophy.
• View our college football picks here.
• View 2007 NCAA football preview here.
• Take a look at our ncaa football picks free here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-03-2007
Southern Miss will be at home tonight for the first time against a D-1A opponent. Rice will enter having allowed 53 points per game in their three D-1 games. With just six returning starters on d...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-28-2007
Air Force heads to Annapolis to play for the Commander-in-Chief trophy in what is the third road game in four weeks for the Falcons. Under new head coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force has pulled o...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-21-2007
Oklahoma has roared out of the games to a perfect 3-0 mark both SU and ATS. They have outscored opponents 184-26. They have dominated completely. A perfect time to fade them. Oddsmakers opened this on...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-19-2007
In the first road test for the Aggies, we like their chances against a Miami team that struggled mightily in their first game vs. a Big 12 opponent. The Hurricanes lost 13-51 to Oklahoma in week two. ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-13-2007
Troy comes home licking their wounds after back-to-back losses on the road at Arkansas and Florida. Talk about a tough schedule! They gave up 105 total points which is why they are getting double digi...