Free Football Predictions - October 04, 2008

With our win in week five, we have now posted four winning weeks out of five. We stand at 59% on the season (29-20) for +23.8 units. Our win on Tuesday starts us off at 1-0 for week six. We have seven Saturday picks.

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CFB	29-20 last 49 picks	59%	+$2380
MLB	12-6 last 18 picks	67%	+$1900
NFL	4-3 last 7 picks	57%	+$300
WNBA	21-8 last 29 picks	72%	+$2310
TOTAL			+$6890

 

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Duke at Georgia Tech (Saturday 10/04 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 45.5 -110

The Blue Devils at 3-1? It looks like a misprint. But they actually should be 4-0. This is no doubt an inspired and improved team. They are off their largest margin of victory since 1998, having ended a 25-game ACC losing streak. Georgia Tech is young, but much better than advertised also, as too are off to a good start at 3-1. The Jackets defense has been very impressive, allowing just 7 points in their last game, 16 to Boston College, and 20 to Virginia Tech. This will be the first road game for the Blue Devils and they are off a big emotional win. The offense is likely to slip a bit as a result, especially facing a strong Tech stop unit that allows just 14.2 ppg. The better part of Duke's team lies on the defensive side as well, as the Dukies have only allowed 307 yards and 16.2 points per game. These teams both bring it on the defensive end, and I look for this one to play UNDER the total.

Oklahoma, the new #1 team in the nation, is very good. But are they, on the road, 27 points better than Baylor? Perhaps they are, but will they play that way before Texas weekend? Next week's showdown is quickly becoming a stage for who will be in the National Championship Game. It's hard to imagine Oklahoma being 100% focused on this game. Baylor is not the doormat they have been in the past. Robert Griffin is difficult to defend, as he can throw down field and he keeps the defense off balance with his abilty to run. He has some very good numbers for a freshman (seven passing TDs, five rushing TDs and no INTs). Jay Finley has found daylight out of the backfield at 8.1 yards per carry, and Baylor should be able to put some points up here. The question is how much energy is Oklahoma willing to spend with the biggest game of the year on deck? I say not enough to cover four touchdowns on the road. History agrees as the Sooners are 5-11 ATS the week before Texas the last sixteen years. Add in the fact that Baylor is well rested (and presumably well prepared) off a bye, and we have some real value on the dog here.

After watching Arkansas get buried by Texas last week, you knew this would be a huge spread. But is Arkansas that bad? Texas hates Arkansas, so you knew they would not play a lethargic game and they did in fact bring it. In addition, Florida is off a loss that no one could see coming at the swamp as a 20+ point favorite. People often believe that a team in that situation will be mad and motivated, and come back big after a loss of that nature. But the fact is, undefeated teams after suffering their first loss tend to do poorly in their next game. Think about it. The National Title they were chasing may have been lost, and the dream has been crushed. That's not a motivator, but a demotivator. Florida simply has not looked anything like what most expected. They have struggled far too often. On the surface their early games looked like big easy wins, but special teams and pick-6's have widened the margins in their wins. I look for Arkansas to play inside this number at home, as Florida will likely be flat here.

Two teams heading in opposite directions clash in MAC play as W. Michigan hosts the Bobcats. Western Michigan is fresh off a defensive struggle (and win) versus Temple. The win boosted them to 4-1, while the Bobcats have been bad and have posted a 1-4 mark on the season. Western Michigan has made some defensive adjustments and should be able to get in the Bobcats backfield, given they have allowed 10 sacks on the season, stalling out drives. Western Michigan can score and should be able to put points up on a weak Bobcat defense, but it takes two teams to push a total OVER in this range. I just don't see the Bobcats mistake-prone offense putting much up here. Ohio has played UNDER in 12 of their last 17 on the road, while the Broncos have gone UNDER in four of their last five vs teams with a losing record. There are 17 returning defensive players on the field today vs. 13 offensive (and one new QB). I like this one to play UNDER.

Here we have two teams starved for a win. Temple has struggled to move the ball, but will finally play against a team that will offer little resistance (the Redbirds stop unit has allowed 30.5 ppg). It should open up some room for the Temple offense to get untracked. Meanwhile, the Redbird offense has not been clicking either, and the one thing an experienced Temple team has done is keep weak offenses from scoring much. With neither team showing the capacity to consistantly move the ball, a TD cushion with an experienced team is inviting. The offenses are both weak, but Temple has shown much more resistance on defense, and that will be the advantage and difference here. I'll back the Owls as a live dog in this one.

How do you back a team giving up 55 points per game - one that gave up 77 points in three quarters last week? A lot of it has to do with the fact they have played teams that are way over their head in terms of competition. The four games North Texas played were vs teams ranked 1, 23, 27 and 30th in the country offensively. Thos opponents average 45 points per game! Florida International isn't even close to that universe! The fact is, FIU is the worst offensive team in NCAA Football, ranking dead last, producing 196 yards and less than 14 points per game. North Texas has been able to produce 14 points per game, even with the ridiculous schedule they have faced. So the oddsmakers have put a team that is the worst in the NCAA in a position of having to cover a TD on the road. That's a tall order considering that their opponent is probably not nearly as bad as the numbers would indicate.

We have watched top team after top team get knocked off this year with Florida, Georgia, USC, and Ohio State all going down already. Last week three of the top four teams lost. It's eerily reminiscent of last year. Could Texas be next? That's not likely, but laying two TDs on the road to a 3-1 team in a "sandwich" game sure looks dangerous. Texas is coming to Colorado between games with their two most hated rivals (Arkansas last week and Oklahoma on deck). Last year, a superb Horns team fell by 20 to Kansas State preceding their annual war with the Sooners, and they were a 15 point favorite in that one. Colorado is on the improve and last year at home, they upset the Sooners. They also took Kansas to the wire losing by just 5 points. The Buffs are 18-9 SU (17-10 ATS) in their last 27 Big 12 home games. And I expect the Buffs to be motivated here. The last time they met Texas they were absolutely humiliated 70-3 in the 2005 Big 12 Championship. I like Colorado getting two touchdowns here.

Results: 2-5

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our College football betting philosophy here.
• View our 2008 college football team previews here.
• View our NCAA football Game-of-Week-Preview here.
• View our college football picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our college football sportsbook.
• Check out 2008 college footballseason prior picks here.
• Hop over to our college football against-the-spread records here.
• Take a look at our college football lines and odds here.
• Don't forget to read our college football preseason picks here.
• Don't forget to read our blog football here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-30-2008
Florida Atlantic is off two straight losses by a combined score of 54-3. Their other loss of the season was by a score of 52-10. Middle Tennessee has gotten a lot of credit for beating Maryland. That ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-25-2008
We're 8-2 thus far on our mid-week CFB plays. We look to take that to 9-2 with this pick. The Trojans take their #1 ranking to Corvallis to take on the Beavers of Oregon State, a team no one thing...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-17-2008
This game could get ugly, as Penn State has been hanging some huge numbers against some meager competiton. The question is, how much will Penn State score? Let's not forget that Temple held Connec...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-17-2008
The Wildcats have lit-up the scoreboard in their first two games, putting up 45 against North Texas and 69 against Montana State. But don't be fooled. Last year this team tallyed 34 gaianst San Jo...

NCAA-Football-Picks-September-12-2008
We faded Maryland last week and good thing as the Terps lost by 10 points as a 12.5 point favorite. They have not been able to get anything going on offense, and they will be hoping for different...