College Football Prediction - November 29, 2008

This week we have seven college picks... all on Saturday...

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: South Carolina at Clemson (Saturday 11/29 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 41 -110

The Gamecocks are probably an offensive skill player and a QB away from being a great team. They rank 11th in the country on defense, despite getting blown out by Florida, who is doing that to everyone lately. They are allowing just 19 ppg, which is reduced to 15.6 ppg without the Florida game. Offensively they have had trouble moving the ball all season, and have produced 17 points or less in four of their games. The Clemson Tigers are almost a mirror image, they have a big defense, but have had trouble scoring themselves - again, QB issues. The Tigers are allowing just 15.1 ppg in their last 10, while the odffense has averaged just under 20 ppg in their last seven ACC games. This one should be a battle of field position, and few TD's.

After riding through the regular season last year with a single loss, the Jayhawks expected to be right in the thick of things again this season. The fact is they were fortunate that they did not have to play Texas, Oklahoma or Texas Tech last year and their record was a product of a soft non-conference schedule and a lucky break from their Big-12 schedule. This season they had to play them all and it resulted in three defeats by 84 total points and a stiffer non-conference game against South Florida resulted in yet another loss. The Jayhawks defense has been dismal. The last five games they have played they have allowed a staggering 219 points. For those without the calculator handy, that's 43.8 ppg. They now must hit the road to face a high octane Missouri offense that is averaging 45.7 ppg and over 500 yards per contest. This one could get ugly and I'm backing the Tigers here in a route.

The Red Raiders were totally humiliated by the Sooners in Norman last week and it put their National Championship hopes to sleep. How will they react? What is important now is a big win here, as they dropped to 7th in the BCS Bowl standings. The Red Raiders have to be careful not to slip behind Penn State and Boise State who are hot on their heels. They would certainly like to improve upon that #7 ranking. After a 2-1 start, and a near miss on the road at Connecticut, the Bears seemed poised to move up in the Big-12 this season, but it never materialized. Although we've seen improved play, it never translated to wins as they won home games against lowly Iowa State and Texas A&M. They have played three "barometer" games on the road vs. Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and lost the three by a combined 84 points or by 28 ppg. None of those games was closer than 24 points. Texas Tech should be playing aggressive here, looking to make a statement that they really are still deserving of a top Bowl, and put Baylor away by a similar margin. The Red Raiders are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. Baylor and Baylor is 30-52 ATS in their last 82 games vs. winning teams. Under Mike Leach Tech is 25-13 ATS as a home favorite. I'll back the Red Raiders here.

Duke looked like a team that could possibly threaten to become Bowl eligible at the beginning of the year with a new coach and veteran team, but it just wasn't in the cards. They got out of the gate at 3-1, and the promise was there. But disappointment followed. The optimism was based on their 30.8 ppg scoring spree per game in those first four games, but as the competition increased, the offense disapperaed. The Duke offense has gradually declined as the season has progressed. The 30.8 ppg has diminished to 14 ppg in the last seven, and even further recently at just 8.3 ppg in their last three. North Carolina suffered a similar fate, when they lost Tate for the year. An offense that was producing 31.8 ppg in the first six has declined to 21.8 ppg the last five. The Tar Heels defense has come to life, as they have allowed over 24 points just once this season. These teams played to a 20-14 final last year, and I think a similar score is in order this season.

It has been a disappointing year for Florida Atlantic as they thought they had the talent to capture the Sun Belt Conference Championship. They not only fell short, they don't even have a winning record on the season at 5-6 and are just .500 in conference play. They have been inconsistent all season scoring 40 one week and then 14 the next. QB Rusty Smith has had less than a stellar year as he has thrown 13 INT's this year compared to eight a year ago and just 17 TD passes compared to 32 a year ago. So, consequently the FAU offense has not reached its level of expectations. Florida International, after losing their first three to teams of the likes of Kansas, Iowa and South Florida, have done a much better than expected job. The truest indication is they are 7-3 ATS on the season. Outside of a big loss to UL Lafayette, the Golden Panthers have been in every game since the first two of the season. They have already won two games outright as an underdog and I give them a chance here to make it three vs. the underachieving Owls.

The Trojans let one slip away on the road vs Oregon State and will probably live to want that one over as it is their only blemish and will likely keep them out of the National Championship game. That loss may also cost the Trojans a trip to the Rose Bowl as Oregon State holds the tiebreaker with their win over USC. They now take on a bitter rival in Notre Dame, a team that hasn't beaten them since the 2001-02 season. The Irish are improved from a year ago, but a loss at home to lowly Syracuse shows the true distance between these teams. USC can certainly let down in games vs. weak competition as was shown vs. the Beavers. But, despite the Fighting Irish being weak, the perception is different, given the name and the long-time rivalry. The Trojans won't likely miss an opportunity to lay it on vs. the Irish. USC will likely be going for style points here as they will try to improve upon their #5 BCS ranking and the Irish are just simply out-manned at every position on the field and the Trojans could name their score here and likely will. I'll lay the big chalk and back the Trojans.

After watching Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech, many believe the Sooners could top this total by themselves. That was a team on a mission, making a statement, playing at home with revenge. I'm not taking anything away from Oklahoma as they played perhaps the best game any team has played this season in NCAA Football. But, it is very difficult for a team off a game like that to come back and do it again, especially on the road vs. another competent opponent. Oklahoma State is the forgotten team in the Big-12, with all the attention on Texas, Texas Tech and the Sooners. The Cowboys are good on both sides of the ball, and played Missouri and Texas in tight, low scoring (considering the totals) games. They lost to Texas 28-24 in a game that ended up more than two TD's under the total. They won on the road at Missouri in a game that went over three TD's under the total. The Sooners have not been as potent on the road, and their last 10 on the road vs. a team with a winning record have seen seven of the ten go UNDER. This one is set way too high, and I'll back the UNDER.

Results: 1-6

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our How we pick college football winners here.
• Don't forget to read our 2008 college football preview here.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA football Game Analysis here.
• Hop over to our NCAA football prior picks here.
• Read our college football sportsbooks here.
• Check out our updated 2008 NCAA football picks season results.
• Here we show our college football ATS standings.
• Updated today: Football lines and odds.
• Updated today: ncaa football free picks.
• Check out blog college football picks here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-25-2008
Northern Illinois will enter this one with the No. 21 ranked defense in the country allowing just 18.3 ppg. The fact that Navy will provide a one-dimensional attack should allow the Huskies to stack t...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-20-2008
Buffalo may be better than even their 6-4 record would indicate. Their four losses have come to Missouri, Pittsburgh, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. They have yet to lose to a team from the MA...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-18-2008
Kent State has not had a lot of success as they have lived and died by their talented QB Julian Edelman. Edelman leads the team with over 1,000 yards rushing and has thrown for 1,580 yards as well. Th...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-13-2008
The public is swarming Ohio State in this one. Not so fast. The Illini are off a loss to Western Michigan, so how are they going to stay in the game vs. the Buckeyes? If you think last week they didn&...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-12-2008
This was supposed to be a potential Bowl year for the Owls, but at 3-6 those hopes are gone. The senior-laden team has experienced numerous injuries and the offense has been sputtering all season, gen...