Free Football Pick By Handicapper - November 28, 2009

I have seven college football picks this week. We went 4-5 last week in college football.

Getting my NHL picks? I'm having a historic season. Last night I went 6-1 with another 5-unit winner. 5-unit NHL picks are 21-3 this season. Over the past five weeks, I'm hitting 62% for +63.6 units.

Basketball is rocking. My college hoops picks are 12-2 over the past week. NBA picks have gone 19-15 over the past three weeks.

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Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan (Friday 11/27 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Northern Illinois +13 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 50.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Central Michigan has locked up the MAC West at 7-0 and will be likely playing 7-0 Temple for the MAC Title. The Huskies have had a good year at 7-4, and an eighth win could be enticing to Bowl Committees, especially knocking off a tough Chippewas team. The Chips have an impressive home resume at 4-0 and winning by an average of 37.8 points per game. That has inflated this line, but it is a bit misleading. The Chips played non-FBS Alcorn State and three of the worst MAC teams at home that have combined for a 7-26 record. The Huskies are well versed on the road with no loss larger than 8 points and that includes a pair of trips into the Big-10. The Huskies boast an 8-3 ATS mark in their last 11 as a dog and I think they have some bite. The Huskies are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 as a dog of 10-20 points. They are also 14-4 ATS in their last 18 following back-to-back ATS losses. I like Northern Illinois with the generous points. I also like the UNDER. Both teams average game totals fall under this mark posted here. N. Illinois is 13-4 UNDER the past three seasons when playing teams that allow 58%+ pass completion percentage. They are also a perfect 10-0 UNDER as an underdog of 10-20 points and 13-4 UNDER after a game in which they went OVER.

It's been a very disappointing year for Arkansas State, a team that was supposed to contend with Troy for the Sun Belt Championship. They played Troy early and lost a heartbreaker by three points then went to Iowa and almost pulled the upset before losing by 3 points. I think those two losses really took the steam out of this team. They definitely are better than they have shown, and I have a feeling that they take out those frustrations in this their finale at home. North Texas has also had a bad year, but there is one big difference between these teams. The Mean Green are a legitimate bad team. Their only two wins came vs. Western Kentucky who has yet to win a FBS game in two years, and Ball State who was winless for most of the season. Arkansas State is the better team, and in their home finale I expect one big effort which we haven't seen from this team since Iowa. I like Arkansas State to roll here.

This is not the prototypical Frank Beamer-type team. They have been more offensive this season than defense. The defense, which has been good of late against some poor offenses, has not been the caliber that we have seen in the past in Blacksburg. Tech is putting up 30.5 points per game and on the road, they have allowed 20 per game. The Cavaliers generated 21 points vs. a solid Clemson defense and their offense, which has not been good most of the year, has begun to show signs of maturing. They have played OVER in four of their last five when a dog of 10.5 or more at home, and six of eight overall at home. This series has also played high, topping the total in five of the last seven. I like this one to go OVER the total.

The Razorbacks have a big-time offense. They have averaged 48.5 ppg in their last four games. But those points came against the likes of E. Michigan, Troy and Mississippi State. The problem is it hasn't translated very well against a top defense, and the LSU Tigers can "D" up with the best of them. The Razorbacks offense has played against three solid defenses this season in Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, and scored a grand total of 44 points (just 14.7 ppg). That's a far cry from the lofty numbers they have served on the "ole" defenses on their schedule. Tigers may play some defense, but the offense isn't nearly what it has been in the past. Their offense has averaged just 20.7 ppg in SEC play, and have yet to have a total posted at 50 or higher for any of their games prior to this game. The Razorbacks are not as potent on the road, and have played four straight UNDER, while the Bayou Cats have failed to reach the total in their last seven at home. LSU is 33-16 UNDER in their last 49 games with a total posted between 50 and 56. I like this one to go UNDER the total.

Many thought that Georgia Tech would be a mess this year, running the option in the ACC. Now almost two seasons after it was implemented, we haven't heard a word about it. All the Yellow Jackets have done is go 10-1 this year and they have covered the spread at a 15-6 ATS mark in the last two seasons. They are still under the radar with seven covers in their last eight. So can it be effective against Georgia? Let's see, last year Georgia didn't allow more than 28 points to anyone. Then Tech comes in against one of the nation's best defenses and hangs 45 on them, rushing for over 400 yards. This year the Bulldogs’ defense is softer and they don't have Moreno and Stafford on offense. Now Tech is even better at running the option, posting 34 ppg in their last six in the ACC where it wasn't supposed to work. If they were in the SEC they wouldn't be able to pull it off right? Well, let's see. They have played four games in the two option years during the regular season against SEC teams, one being Georgia of course, and didn't score less than 38, averaging 44.3 ppg. I think we have enough evidence that Georgia Tech will score a lot, win, and cover this one.

Hawaii has won three straight which keeps this line down. But, wins over San Jose State, New Mexico State and Utah State don't equate tell us a whole lot about what they will do vs. Navy. Those three teams are in the bottom three in the WAC and are a combined 7-25 on the season. The Warriors have also beaten Central Arkansas, a non-FBS team, and a 1-10 Washington State team. Maybe the books and the bettors are thinking about how teams come to Hawaii and forget about football. But, this is a Navy team that is disciplined, and will not lose focus like many other teams that come to the Big Island. Navy takes care of business vs. bad teams as they are 47-22 ATS vs. losing teams over the past 15 years. Over that same span they are 15-4 ATS on the road vs. teams that can't stop the pass (those allowing 62%+ completion percentage). They are also 40-19 ATS on the road off a win! This Hawaii team lost at home to Boise State by 45 points and Fresno State by 25! They can't stop the ground game, giving up almost five yards per carry and close to 200 yards per game. Seeing this type of offense for the first time will make matters even worse. Navy gets this one big.

Results: 1-6

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• Take a look at our college football lines and odds here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2009 NCAA football preview.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-19-2009
How bad is it in Colorado? Really bad. No one but the clueless Colorado AD has any confidence in Dan Hawkins anymore. His record speaks for himself and the Buffs simply can't compete in the Big 12...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-18-2009
Central Michigan has a big date next week with Northern Illinois which could determine the team that plays Temple for the MAC Title. I wouldn't look for them to expend much energy here. Their offe...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-12-2009
The Red Hawks finally got a win a couple of weeks ago, but still enter this one at 1-8. They have been out-scored by an average of 17.7 points per game on the season. Their defense ranks No. 73 in NCA...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-05-2009
The Northern Illinois Huskies sit at 3-1 in the MAC West, just a game behind Central Michigan and just one game from becoming eligible for a Bowl game. This certainly isn't the spot for them to ta...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-03-2009
The oddsmakers have basically rated this game even, with Buffalo getting a home-field nod in the betting line. But, are these teams really equal? Buffalo took a blow when their leading rusher of all t...