darrell,

An INT returned for a touchdown blew our UNDER pick on Tuesday. We have one Thursday night play and five more for Saturday.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Boston College at Miami (Thursday 11/23 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Miami +4

Sometimes sporting events go beyond the white lines and statistics. Boston College, pure and simple, is a better football team than Miami this year. No arguement here. One thing however is for certain in sports. If all the better football teams won games, then there would be no upsets, and we'd all be millionaires, because this would be easy. You may want to think back to last year when the NY Giants had a pivitol game upcoming and midweek, Wellington Marra passed away. The Giants all dedicated the game against the Redskins that Sunday in his honor, and vowed they would win it for him. They went out and played the best game of the season, winning 36-0! Miami's Bryan Pata was recently slain, and it was a very emotional week in preparation for Virginia last week. The players have dedicated this, the last home game, to Pata and there is only one thing to expect. They will rise above any level they have played at all season. Kirby Freeman will be replacing Kyle Wright at QB (out for the season), but his yards per attempt are identical to Wright's (6.6) so nothing is lost. The Hurricane defense which has been huge all season will carry this game, and we look for a highly spirited effort from the Canes.

How the rollercoaster of emotions rolls along from one week to the next. Rutgers has the biggest win in school history one week, and then the next goes to Cinncinati (who we were on as a 5 unit play), and has nothing in the tank, getting torched 30-11. UCONN makes a furious comeback at home against Pitt, converts on Coach Edsall's decision to go for a 2-pt conversion in OT, and wins a highly emotional game 46-45, then goes to Syracuse who can't stop the run, and gets plays as flat as a pancake, and loses! So now what do we have for an encore? Cinncinati off a huge emotional win on national TV vs Rutgers, comes to UCONN with the public in their pocket, but not us. We have seen what it is like on the downside of that rollercoaster, and its UCONN'S turn this week. The emotion runs in Huskie blue and white this week. Cinncinati will be flat, just like Rutgers was last week. There is also something else interesting here. Cinncinati gives up 11 ppg at home, and 33ppg on the road. UCONN here.

Coach Fulmer has never lost to Kentucky and the Vols have won six of the last seven in this matchup vs. Kentucky. The average score in the Fulmer era is 44-17. With a history like that and a spread like this you wonder if the favorite might take the opponent lightly. With Bowl implications, and the Wildcats coming in off four straight wins, we don't think that's going to happen here. Fulmer said this week that he's not taking them lightly, "The Wildcats are a very good offensive team. It's a great challenge to our entire team." They know that Kentucky is looking for a Bowl appearance and will come in fighting. But it won't be enough. Kentucky, while 6-1 at home, is just 1-3 on the road where they have been pounded by an average score of 17 to 41. Against common opponents this year, Kentucky has scored 17 while Tennessee has scored 33. The Vols are an offensive machine and Kentucky will be in for a long day.

Oklahoma likely comes into this one knowing they can't win the Big 12 South. Unless Texas loses at home to Texas A&M, Oklahoma can't win it. OK State will obviously be up for this big in-state matchup. They have alternated wins and losses the last seven games and they come in off a 24-30 loss to Texas Tech. They certainly have a shot in this one, especially considering that they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven in this series played here at their home stadium. In 2004 Oklahoma came in as a 14 point favorite and barely escaped with a 3 point win. The Sooners are a mediocre 3-2 SU and ATS on the road this year. Oklahoma State is 4-1 SU and 3-1 ATS at home scoring 48 points per game. Take the generous points on the live home dog.

Lots has changed in the past few weeks in the mind of this Arizona team, including the oddsmakers. Arizona has won 3 games in a row as a double digit dog. We're not sure if we have ever seen that before. If you looked ahead to this game before the last 3 weeks, you would have seen Arizona as at least a 4 point road favorite. Stats however can be very misleading, and this is a bonafide false favorite, with the line value on the other side. Arizona in the last 3 games has outscored its opponent by 88-47, and has beaten the pointspread by an average of 28 ppg! It really looks like this team suddenly put it together. A closer look reveals otherwise. They have been out first-downed 44-42, they have been outgained by 100 yds. They had a +6 turnover margin vs Oregon last week, so 6 extra possessions and only outgained them by 17 yds! Oregon even got more first downs in 6 fewer possessions. The week before they had a +3 turnover margin, and the story was the same, outgained out first downed, out everything, but the scoreboard has spoken, and now this team looks like they are vastly improved. The fact is the numbers haven't changed, just the lucky bounces. We don't try to predict turnovers, just the better team that holds the most value and has the best opportunity to cover. That is Arizona St. in this one.

Not too many 9-2 ACC teams can come into Maryland as an underdog. That is because it says Wake Forest on the jersey. I guarantee you if it said Florida St. 9-2, it would be a different story. Maryland finally got caught up to by BC last week. We say that because it is the first time, as far as we know that a team has won 8 games on the season, and has been out-gained in every single one! Maryland is 8-3 and could easily be 3-8! Wake Forest has had a brilliant season, and they are by far the better team in this one. They are exercising
a lot of demons this season, and enjoying it along the way. Well, they have one more big one to go. They haven't beaten Maryland in 7 years! Wake Forest has been a perfect 5-0 on the road this season, so they are no stranger to playing a solid 60 minutes in someone elses building. This time Wake ends the streak at 7.