Free Football Pick - November 24, 2007
We have five Saturday picks including the huge ACC matchup between Virginia and Virginia Tech...
Today's NCAA Football Picks:
Game: Virginia Tech at Virginia (Saturday 11/24 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Virginia +3.5
It's been over a decade and a half since the Virginia Cavaliers mattered in College Football. They now host a very important game against their hated cross-state rival for a trip to the ACC title game vs. Boston College. Both teams have identical records SU (9-2) and both are 6-1 in-conference. Yet, Virginia is instilled as a home dog of more than a field goal. Yes, Tech has looked very good this year, winning games on average 29-15. But Virginia is right there. The Cavaliers average 24.4 per game and allow 17.5. Against four common opponents this season, both teams are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. Under Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech is 14-26 ATS off a home conference win including 1-8 ATS if the Hokies scored 35+ points. Under Al Groh, Virginia is 28-14 ATS at home including 20-7 ATS vs. conference foes and 12-3 ATS as a home underdog! We think the home field advantage, and rabid crowd, makes a difference here. Take the home team in a pretty even matchup, getting points.
Game: Temple at W. Michigan (Saturday 11/24 2:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Temple +12
Temple is considered one of the worst football teams over the last five years, if not THE worst. The Owls coming into this season had a 4-42 SU record. But, this is not the lowly Owl teams of the last four years as they have already matched the win total over their last 46 games. The betting public wouldn't dare throw money on this team. But the fact is, over the last five years, they have rewarded their backers with a good 30-22 ATS reward (58%). This line is inflated thanks to W. Michigan's recent win over Iowa on the road. Well guess what? Iowa is awful this season, and that was a marquis game for W. Michigan and meaningless to Iowa. This week, the tables are turned as this is a meaningless game for W. Michigan. They own wins over Toledo and N. Illinois, teams that combine for a 7-16 mark, as well as CCSU, a division-1AA team. For Temple, the blowout losses of past years have been replaced with wins and closer games this season. These teams are both 4-7 off of similar schedules, and we would not be surprised if Temple wins this game. They certainly have a great opportunity to stay within the big number.
Game: Utah State at Idaho (Saturday 11/24 3:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Utah State +2.5
Does it get much worse than this? Here we have two 1-10 teams, that no one outside of Utah and Idaho care about, facing each other. Well, we care today. We think there's a lot of value in this little game. While both teams are bad at 1-10 overall, Utah State has won a conference game while Idaho has not. That win was an impressive road victory at New Mexico State - a game in which they won by 18 points as a 7 point underdog. They held NM State to just 17 points. Idaho lost by 14 to New Mexico State, yielding 45 points. Versus common opponents overall this season, Utah State is 4-3 ATS while Idaho is just 1-6 ATS. Utah scored 3 points more per game vs. these foes and allowed 5 points per game less. In addition, this is a good matchup for Utah State's offense. This team is completing 65% of their passes and Idaho, over the past three seasons, is just 2-11 ATS vs. good passing teams (those averaging 58%+). While Utah State is riding the momentum from their victory over New Mexico State, Idaho is off a 58-14 beatdown at the hands of Boise State. The Vandals are just 1-8 ATS the past two seasons coming off a double-digit loss to a conference rival. We think Utah State is the better team and they are getting points.
Game: Connecticut at W. Virginia (Saturday 11/24 3:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Connecticut +18.5
This game is for all the marbles in the Big East and a BCS berth. For W. Virginia, it could make or break a National Championship opportunity. W. Virginia was supposed to be here in this position, and UCONN was not. This is a lot of points in a game that has so much meaning. The Connecticut defense has been superb, holding every single opponent under 20 points except for Cincinnati. When you take a look at what led to that Cincinnati score, think of this: UCONN had three consecutive emotional, highly energized games prior to that Cincinnati game. They played S. Florida, Rutgers and Louisville and won them all. It was improbable to think they were coming off those three with anything left in the tank vs. a good Bearcats team. This line is inflated thanks to that game. The thinking being that UCONN is not that good as they were exposed vs. Cincinnati. Well, this team was supposed to be exposed when they went to Virginia (who is suddenly 9-2) and poised to win the ACC. UCONN lost in Charlottesville by 1, the closest anyone has come to beating Virginia at home. The Huskies were supposed to be exposed by Louisville, then certainly S. Florida, but it never happened. They went to Morgantown and forced OT. UCONN is this year's Rutgers in the Big East. The bottom line here is this team isn't good by name as they, like Rutgers last year, weren't supposed to be here. But they have answered all the questions, at every stop. W. Virginia has scored 26.3 ppg vs. defensive teams in the top 30 this year, and 45.7 ppg vs. everyone else. Many may feel they put up 40+ against UCONN, but if they get to 30, we would be surprised. We like getting this many points, on a very solid UCONN team.
Game: Alabama at Auburn (Saturday 11/24 8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Alabama +4.5
There is a lot of value on Alabama right now after an inexcusable loss to Louisiana Monroe. Sometimes you have to forget what just happened, realize this is an intense rivalry game, and evaluate what each team is capable of doing. Alabama is a much better team than that. They played LSU to within 7, lost in OT to Georgia, beat Tennessee by 24, and won vs. Arkansas. The capability is there, and in a rivalry game, we certainly think they are on a level playing field with Auburn. You have to take into account that five Alabama players were out do to suspension, and will all return to face Auburn. Auburn has taken care of the soft teams on its schedule, and their best wins (3 points vs. Florida and 2 vs. Arkansas) tell us that Alabama will at the very least hang around in this game. This has been an underdog based series. Alabama has covered four of the last five at Auburn as a dog, and Auburn has not beaten Bama by more than 10 points at home dating all the way back to 1983. We look for the Tide to play this one close, and we will take the points.
Results: 2-8
NCAA Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Football-Picks-November-15-2007
Throw out the records when these teams square off, because they ultimately don't decide the issue. Prior to the season starting, this game was supposed to be a game featuring two potentially undef...
NCAA-Football-Picks-November-13-2007
These teams are even in many ways. Both come in at 5-5 and the series is about even, with Toledo up 16-15. The Rockets have been the hotter team of late, but it certainly has nothing to do with their ...
NCAA-Football-Picks-November-08-2007
Arizona State, as have many college football teams this year, saw the magic come to an end last week as they were handed their first defeat at Oregon. This is yet another team that has not shown ...
NCAA-Football-Picks-November-07-2007
Akron sure takes on the face of a different team when they play in front of the home crowd. The Zips have not had too many potent teams, but when playing at home they can bring it. The Zips are 25-10 ...
NCAA-Football-Picks-November-02-2007
UCLA is a tough team to figure out. So far they have dissapointed and underperformed, and that usually points to leadership issues or hidden team problems. Last week they went to Washington State and ...
