darrell,

Last week we won, going 4-3 with the picks and 12-8 on a unit basis. We hit last week's Tuesday Night football and look to do so again here.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Bowling Green at Toledo (Tuesday 11/21 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on UNDER 47.5

On the surface you look at these teams and see that they both give up over 28 ppg. It would be easy to lean towards the OVER in this one. If you dig into the numbers a little deeper, something else comes out that makes us feel just the opposite. Bowling Green gave up 35.3 ppg in their first four games this year. Since then, they are giving up 24 - a full 11 point drop. They also scored 24.5 ppg in those first four contests but since, as league play has become established, just 16.5 ppg. A team that was seeing an average of nearly 60 ppg has spent the bulk of their league play at a much lower 40 ppg. Toledo has met a similar fate. They gave up 39 ppg covering their first six games, and since have improved remarkably on defense as they have yielded just 17.5 ppg in their last four. The last three the average offense they faced was ranked #60, exactly where Bowling Green sits! Toledo in their last seven games has average only 17 ppg, while giving up just 17.5 ppg in their last four. The result is similar to Bowling Green as games that averaged 56.5 ppg early have turned into games that have scored 34.5 ppg lately. Toledo has held 3 of the last 4 opponents to under 330 yds. while in the previous 6 just one below that! Bowling Green has held 7 opponents to 330 yds or less. This game one the surface looks like it will be higher scoring than it will be, and we will play the UNDER here.

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