Free College Football Prediction - November 22, 2008

Last week we lost by the hook on Illinois turning a winning week into a losing one. We look to bounce back this week with one Friday pick and six Saturday picks including a pick in the big Texas Tech - Oklahoma game...

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Buffalo at Bowling Green (Friday 11/21 6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Buffalo may be better than even their 6-4 record would indicate. Their four losses have come to Missouri, Pittsburgh, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. They have yet to lose to a team from the MAC East. They are playing their best football of the season, and this game vs. Bowling Green, and the finale vs. Kent State are both winnable games. You can bet they are pumped up for their last two, as the Bulls have never been to a Bowl game in the school's history! QB Drew Wiley has been outstanding, passing for 2,398 yards 18 TD's vs. just four INT's. Running back James Starks is healthy again, and has produced 1,028 yards and 11 TD's, so the Bulls have great balance. The Falcons have been very inconsistent, as they have losses to E. Michigan at home, and also dropped a game to Miami, Ohio at home. They are just 5-5, and have not had to play any of the top teams from the West. Tyler Sheehan has moved the team in the air, but the Falcons don't have a running game, as their top gainer on land has less than 400 yards rushing. Buffalo is the better team, and has more balance and better weapons in this one. They are 8-1 ATS since last season coming off a win as they are here. And, under head coach Turner Gill, this Buffalo team is 18-8 ATS as an underdog. I'll back the Bulls as a live dog here.

The first loss suffered by Tulsa has taken some of the heart and steam out of this team. They managed just 23 at Arkansas and followed up with just 30 vs. a not-so-good Houston defense. It is the two lowest scoring games for this Tulsa offense this season. Tulane is certainly not a defensive power, but they did keep Houston to 42 - an offense  that is playing lights out right now. The Green Wave haven't allowed over 44 the entire season. And, they are certainly not an offensive force, as they have managed to average just 16.5 ppg in their last six, one of the worst averages in NCAA-F. It's going to take a 60 point performance from Tulsa to push this one over, and Tulsa has not topped 50 but once in their last five games. I like this one to go UNDER the sky-high total.

The ACC is a mess with eight of the twelve teams riding into this weekend with either six or seven wins. Needless to say every game is crucial now to see how this thing sorts itself out. Wake Forest has been carried by their defense all season, but suddenly the wear and tear seems to be putting cracks in a defense that allowed just 15 ppg through their first five games. They have allowed more than that average in each of their last five games, yielding about a TD more per game. That becomes problematic when you have an offense that has scored 17 or less in more than half of your games (six of ten). Boston College figured to struggle offensively this season with the loss of QB Matt Ryan, but the Eagles are actually managing a solid 26.8 ppg. And the team is coming together at the right time as they are off of a shutout vs a solid Notre Dame team at home, and an eye-opening 10 point win at Florida State. The Eagles seem to be a team on the rise, while the Demon Deacons seem to be a team on the slide. Wake is just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 as a home favorite (6-16 under Jim Grobe). I'll take what has become the better team.

The Cougars have an explosive offense and after a poor 1-3 start to their season, they have caught fire. The Cougs have gone 5-1 in their last six. They have out-scored their last two opponents 112-44, and when you consider one of them was Tulsa, this team has my attention now. They have put up an amazing 1,334 yards in their last two games alone! That is bad news for a Miner team that ranks 108th out of 120 teams on defense. Coming off peak performances like that inflate the totals line, as Houston in their six prior games averaged 34.3 ppg. The Miners can move the ball as well, but just two of their games have reached this many points scored on the season. Despite the offensive hype, eight of the last eleven Cougar conference games have gone UNDER, and four of the last five Miner games have played UNDER after they allow 275 yards or less. I like the Cougars here as well as the UNDER.

Boise State is once again poised to be a BCS buster as they bring their undefeated team to Nevada for a crucial game against the Wolfpack. The one thing this Wolfpack team will do is challenge the Bronco defense. Nevada is the highest scoring team in the WAC. They have put up over 40 points in seven of their ten games, including six of their last seven. Over those seven games, they have averaged 43 ppg. The offense is producing 524 ypg and is balanced, running for over 300, and passing for 200. Boise State has always been an offensive team first, but this year, they have produced some of their best defensive numbers. Last year on the smurf turf, where the Broncos never lose, they needed a FG as time expired to end up winning by 2 as a 25-point favorite. This Wolfpack has shown the ability to give the Broncos fits. And this year, they get Boise in their building. The upset isn't out of the question, as the Wolfpack will be sky high for this one.

We've cashed backing Tech for two straight weeks as they handed both Texas and Oklahoma State losses. This is yet another huge game in Norman, where the unbeaten Red Raiders try to pull out a third-straight huge win. You can be sure the energy will be high on both sides, as National Championship implications abound. These teams have combined to score nearly 1,000 points between them, and the odds-makers have jacked this total up, preparing for the "over-loving" publich to pounce hard. The value at this point is on the UNDER. Texas Tech has played 10 games, and many of them high scoring, but just one has surpassed this total! Their big games vs. offensive powers and equals (Oklahoma State and Texas), both fell short. The Sooners have played in only four games that have exceeded this total, and if there is one thing both these teams are aware of, it's the explosiveness of the offenses. I would think that the game planning is going to be around hanging onto the ball, with sustained drives, and keeping the defensive exposure to a minimum, keeping the defenses fresh. Don't get me wrong, with these offenses, I do expect this to be a high scoring game, but not on the level this one has been jacked-up to. Getting to nearly 80 is a tall task and in this high-emotion game, I'm going UNDER the total here.

Results: 3-4

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated How we pick college football winners.
• Read our 2008 college football preview here.
• Check out our updated NCAA football Game-of-Week Analysis.
• Read our college football record here.
• Don't forget to read our sports betting football here.
• Take a look at our 2008 NCAA football prior pick results here.
• View our NCAA football ATS records here.
• Take a look at our NCAA football odds here.
• View our updated free picks college football.
• View blog football picks here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-18-2008
Kent State has not had a lot of success as they have lived and died by their talented QB Julian Edelman. Edelman leads the team with over 1,000 yards rushing and has thrown for 1,580 yards as well. Th...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-13-2008
The public is swarming Ohio State in this one. Not so fast. The Illini are off a loss to Western Michigan, so how are they going to stay in the game vs. the Buckeyes? If you think last week they didn&...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-12-2008
This was supposed to be a potential Bowl year for the Owls, but at 3-6 those hopes are gone. The senior-laden team has experienced numerous injuries and the offense has been sputtering all season, gen...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-06-2008
The 2006 version of the Cardinal won just one game, but it was a big one. They went up to Washington in November as an 18 point underdog, and walked out with a win 20-3. Last year they improved s...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-30-2008
These teams meet every season, and there are few surprises as both like to employ the triple option on offense. Army, after a slow start, has been really effective running it in their last four games....