College Football Bowl Picks - November 21, 2009

Over the past two weeks across all sports we are 83-65 for +37.1 units. We hit with our Wednesday play on the Ball State-Central Michigan under. We build on that with one pick in the Thursday night Big 12 clash between Colorado and Oklahoma State. We also have seven Saturday picks and 4 Upset Alerts.

Who's the public on? Check out the Public Betting Consensus at FSB.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Colorado at Oklahoma State (Thursday 11/19 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Oklahoma State -17 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

How bad is it in Colorado? Really bad. No one but the clueless Colorado AD has any confidence in Dan Hawkins anymore. His record speaks for himself and the Buffs simply can't compete in the Big 12, or even outside of it for that matter. CU is 3-7 on the season and that includes losses to Colorado State and Toledo. Oklahoma State is in another class. The Cowboys have only lost two games this season - to Houston and Texas. They have only dropped one game ATS in their last seven games, that again coming to the mighty Longhorns. Outside of that Texas game, they have held their last six opponents to just 14 points per game. Versus four common opponents this season, Colroad has gone 1-3, losing on average by a score of 19-31. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has gone 3-1, winning by an average of 5 points per game - a 17 point difference. On the road the Buffs are averaging just 18 poitns per game while giving up 33. The Cowboys are 11-3 ATS dating back to last season as a favorite and I like them to take that to 12-3 after tonight.

North Carolina started the season with their first three significant games vs. Connecticut, Virginia and Georgia Tech scoring a total of 22 points. The defense was equally stout, and ranked in the top 10. But things have changed. The offense has made great strides while the defense has cracked a bit, and the Heels have scored 19+ in each of their last five games. The Eagles have struggled on the road, but at home they have produced no less than 27 points in each of their six games. They are averaging 37.7 points per game here! I'm surprised to see this number at this stage of the season as both offenses have stepped up. North Carolina allowed 30 to Florida State and 24 to both Georgia Tech and Miami. Their excellent defensive stats are propped up by games against The Citadel, Duke, Virginia and Georgia Southern. Their defense just isn't as good as the averages suggest. The Heels are 6-2 to the OVER in their last eight posted as a dog, while Boston College is 13-6 to the OVER in their last 19 as a home favorite. Last season these teams played toa 69 point game. I like this one to go OVER the total.

Fresh in the minds of many is the 63 points Arkansas put up on Eastern Michigan. Then they played a decent Troy team and hung a 56 on them. So, those games are pushing this total upward. The Bulldogs however will offer much more resistance than those two teams. Mississippi State has already gone to battle with Florida and Alabama, holding them to 29 and 31 points. So, it would be surprising to see this Razorbacks’ offense go off for 40+ here which is what they will have to do to push this one over. The Bulldogs have played four of five UNDER vs. winning teams and sport a 35-16-1 mark to the UNDER after an ATS loss, which is applicable to this game. It takes a lot to push a game over the 60-point mark, and I think the Bulldogs have enough defense to keep this one UNDER the total.

The Cougars have the most explosive offense in football. Where they have struggled this season is when a good offensive team can take advantage of their poor defense and score with them. That won't be the case in this one as Memphis has averaged just 18 points per game on the road this year. It would not be a surprise to see Houston put up 50 plus here as the Tigers’ defense has allowed 30+ in seven games already this season. With an offense not capable of scoring even against the Houston defense, it will be a long day for them in Houston. The Cougars are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five at home against a team with a losing record, while Tigers just 0-5 ATS on the road vs. a team with a winning record. Houston took a big hit last week with a loss to UCF but this is a superb team and I look for them to take out their frustrations on an undermanned Memphis team here - a team that is 1-8 ATS on the season.

Missouri has had a dissapointing season. With six wins and a 2-4 conference record, their fate has pretty much been determined. They are Bowl eligible already but have no chance to reach the Big-12 Title game. They’re playing an opponent that isn't very motivating, so I can see them bringing a lackluster effort here. In contrast, the Cyclones have to be excited about their season as this group has won more games this season (six) than the previous two combined. They are also Bowl eligible and are much better this year than their reputation. A win on the road at Nebraska, and a near win on the road at Kansas say that this team is much improved, and better than the line offered against them here. They have been a 10+ dog twice and are 2-0 ATS, winning one of the games straight up. Dating back to last year, they Cyclones are a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog of 10-21 points. I like them to keep this one close as well.

The Cougars looked like a BCS contender when they shocked Oklahoma 14-13 in the season opener. The shine has come off as the Sooners proved to be a much lesser team than most anticipated, disappearing from the National Title picture themselves. BYU has feasted on a lot of cupcakes since, but were humiliated by the two teams that had a chance to give them a game. They suffered blowout losses to Florida State and TCU, allowing 92 points to those two teams. Now they must face an Air Force team with a great defense (#9 in the nation in points allowed) and an improving offense. Air Force took TCU to the wire before bowing 20-17. No one has scored more than 23 points on this team all season, not even TCU. The potent Horned Frogs offense (averaging 39 points per game) were held to 20 points by the Falcons - their second lowest total of the season! So, getting 10 points in this one is big. The Falcons' offense is coming on and they have the defense that is capable of holding down BYU's offense that has shown warts against top defenses. Air Force is quietly building a very respectable program under the radar. They are 22-11 ATS overall the past three seasons. Meanwhile, BYU is 2-11 ATS since last season in conference games and they are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games following a two-game road trip. BYU has the bigger name here, but maybe not the better team. Take the Academy plus the generous points.

It has been a disappointing season for the Red Wolves who were supposed to contend with Troy for the Sun Belt Title. Instead they are starring down at just one conference win, and are 0-5 on the road for the season. Middle Tennessee has won and covered four straight, are Bowl eligible, and will be overpriced here because of their recent results. Arkansas State seems to play better against the better teams as they took Iowa to the wire on the road before losing by just 3 points. They went to Louisville, another BCS conference team, and lost by just 8 points. They also lost to Troy by just a field-goal, so they certainly have the ability to stay close enough to cover this one.

It hasn't been a great year for the Rams, but for New Mexico it has been a pure nightmare as they still have not put one in the win column. The Lobos’ offense is bad, generating just 15 ppg. They can't run the ball, which has led to a lot of bad down-and-distance situations, resulting in 35 sacks on the season. When you combine that with a poor defense that is spending way too much time on the field, it's no surprise why they have dropped their games by an average of 23 points per contest. The Rams aren't as good as they have been in the past, but they are certainly more than capable of winning here by more than 4 points. The Rams went for over 200 yards on the ground in their last game and have gone 6-1-1 ATS in their game following a 200+ effort on the ground. The Rams have covered four of the last five here, and this has been a road-dominated series with the road team cashing nine of the last eleven. New Mexico is THAT bad.

Results: 3-5

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to read our football handicapping services here.
• Don't forget to visit our college football previous picks.
• Take a look at our college football picks blog here.
• View college football sportsbook reviews here.
• View our NCAA football Game-of-Week Analysis here.
• Here we show our 2009 football prior pick season results.
• View our updated college football ATS standings.
• Check out our updated NCAA football betting philosophy.
• Updated today: Football odds.
• View our 2009 NCAA football predictions here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-18-2009
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NCAA-Football-Picks-November-12-2009
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NCAA-Football-Picks-November-05-2009
The Northern Illinois Huskies sit at 3-1 in the MAC West, just a game behind Central Michigan and just one game from becoming eligible for a Bowl game. This certainly isn't the spot for them to ta...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-03-2009
The oddsmakers have basically rated this game even, with Buffalo getting a home-field nod in the betting line. But, are these teams really equal? Buffalo took a blow when their leading rusher of all t...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-29-2009
The Auburn offense looked like the real deal when they opened the season with four wins. They piled up the yardage and points, averaging 45.3 points per game in the process. But then the schedule got ...