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We are primed for our biggest college football weekend of the year thus far. We come in off a win on Tuesday night, cashing the UNDER in the Toledo/Northern Illinois game. We have a pick in Thursday night's W. Virginia/Pitt game and five more plays on Saturday including a pick in the big game (Michigan/Ohio State) and a 5-unit play. Good luck to you this weekend.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: W Virginia at Pittsburgh (Thursday 11/16 12:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on W Virginia -11.5

Everyone is wondering about Pittsburgh. What jas happened? What happened is they played a soft schedule early with teams they matched up with well except for Michigan St. The problem they had last year with W. Virginia has manifested itself again this year. They really struggle against teams that have a good ground game. They have held opponents to 522 yds. rushing in 6 wins or just over 85 yards per game. The problem is that, in their losses teams have piled up just shy of 300 yards per game! W. Virginia ran for 453 last year, and only needed to complete 4 passes. This will not be a look ahead game for W. Virginia, but rather a statement game. Whatever hope they have in reaching the Championship game is going to require an eye popping victory here similar to last year's score of 45-13, and then a similar result versus Rutgers, with a little "hope for the best" thrown in. It is a two-game season for West Virginia right now, and the punishing ground game that has taken its toll on Pittsburgh all year will once again rear it s ugly head. Mountaineers in this one.

Hard to believe Miami has not become Bowl eligible yet, and just how far the Hurricanes have fallen. There is nothing that attests to this more than their struggle vs an 0-10 Duke team, a game they won just 20-15. The offense has sputtered for most of the year, but will be challenged even more now that QB Kyle Wright's season is over. He will be replaced by Kirby Freeman who has already thrown 3 picks in 45 passes this year, and now must face the nation's 27th rated defense on the road. This isn't a vintage Hurricane team to begin with, and their problems aren't limited to Wright's injury. Ken Phillips (safety), Darnell Jenkins (WR), and A.J. Trump (OL), will all be on the sidelines, and several others are banged up. The translation has been 27.3 ppg in the 1st six games, down to 16.5 ppg last four. The defensive side has suffered as well as the first 6 saw them giving up a stingy 12.3 ppg, and the last four 19 ppg. This is a team that has lost 11 points on offense, and 7 on defense, or total 18ppg, and it is easy to see why they have dropped three in a row. They are now just 2-9-1 ATS last 12. Virginia is not a good offensive team, and stay in games with their defense. They are a much different team at home. They average over 300 yds a game at home, while barely over 200 on the road, while the defense is yielding just 12.8 ppg at home. This has been a tough building for favored teams coming in and expecting to go away with a win. Virginia is 10-1 ATS as a home dog, and when they have been a home dog of a TD or less they are 8-0 ATS, and have won 7 of those games outright. We don't feel this is a good place for Miami with an inexperienced QB, and a banged up team to reverse their losing ways.

This is a big rivalry and one would expect a good showing on both sides. The state of mind of Auburn however is questionable. There are two teams in the country that suddenly have either peaked too early, or just lost that certain something. One of them is Clemson who looked like a Championship caliber team running the ball down everyones throat, then simply became a different team. Auburn reminds us of that kind of team that road to a crest by beating Florida soundly, looking like a national championship team, and have gone down ever since. They have lost two home games in a year you'd expect them to not lose any. Georgia outgains them 446-171 in their building, after a struggle with Ole Miss sneaking away with a 6 point win. A 17 point loss to Arkansas thrown in for good measure, and this team's fortunes have appear to be completely changed. Alabama would love to win this game, and we expect a true Alabama defense to take advantage of the suddenly frustrated Tigers. There is past evidence that when this Auburn team loses that certain something, they don't reclaim it. That is evidenced by their 6-21 ATS mark after a game with less than 275 yards of total offense. They are also 0-8 ATS after a game where they give up 200+ yds. rushing. Signs of things to come. On top of it we get a home dog in a rivalry game. Alabama here.

The game of the year in College Football happens Saturday as #1 Ohio State hosts #2 Michigan in a game that probably decides the national championship. Michigan and Lloyd Carr have always had trouble against Ohio State. Will this year be any different? We don't think so. Not in The Horseshoe. Taking nothing away from Michigan, Ohio State is simply too talented and too strong. We have the luxury of comparing how these teams have performed against six common opponents. Versus these common opponents, Michigan has won by an average score of 24.5 to 8.2 Impressive no doubt. But the Buckeyes won by an average of 41 to 7.2! This Ohio State team is allowing 7.8 per game and just 5.8 per game at home. Their defense is so good that on their 10 turnovers on the season, they have allowed 0 points. That's a truly amazing statistic! This is a team that does not let down vs. top competition either. Ohio State is 16-5 ATS the past two seasons as a favroite and 10-2 ATS vs. winning teams the past two seasons. Troy Smith is experienced, calm and cool and motivated here (locks up Heisman with a great performance). Take the Buckeyes at home to win and cover.

Well if you haven't heard about Rutgers, then you have been sleeping. The whole world has taken this easy to love story and embraced it, and it is indeed quite a story. The media attention, and hype, and BCS speculation has run rampant the past 2 weeks, and Rutgers finds themselves in the middle of a nice juicy let-down sandwich between the impossible win over Louisville (biggest win ever), and the entire season on the line at Morgantown. There is one thing about athletes and you see it time and time again. It becomes exceedingly difficult after a game with just so much adrenline, so much hype, so much expended energy, to duplicate even a facsimile of it the next game. The coach can warn, and remind, but it just isn't in the human realm to find the same level of intensity, especially with another one of those on deck. The question here isn't is Cinncinati on the same level as Rutgers, but is Rutgers mentally able to match the intensity of what they will get this week? This game isn't as statistically mismatched as one would believe either. We all know about Rutgers defense, but few know what Cinncinati has done at home this year. They have not allowed a team to rush for 100 yards. They are a top 10 team in rushing defense at home giving up just 64 yds a game. They also are a top team overall, giving up just 242 total yards per game. Rutgers defense gives up 231. The yards are not the entire story as they are giving up just 11 ppg at home as well, while giving up 33 ppg on the road. Rutgers has had one road game they controlled from start to finish and that was vs Navy, when the Navy QB was injured in the first quarter. The other three were a 5 point win at N.C., a 2 point win at S. Florida, and a 10 point win at Pitt. Now they will face a team in its home finale, knowing a win will put them on the map, but also put them in a Bowl game. Cinncinati has been 8-3 ATS as a home puppy in this pointspread range. The stage is set, and we like what's on the table! Going big with the home cooking!

This is a big night game here for the Sun Devils. A win helps them secure a better Bowl spot. ASU has coverd 7 of the last 11 vs. the Bruins and the home team is 12-6 ATS in the last eighteen in this matchup. UCLA is winless on the road while ASU is 4-1 at home so laying a small number isn't a concern. ASU is simply a lot better than the the Bruins. At home the Devils are getting 6.4 yards per play which is a full 1.4 higher than UCLA's on the road. ASU took care of business last game, winning 47-14 as a small favorite and they are 8-1 ATS following a win by 21+ the past three seasons. Better team plus big night home game spells a cover for the home team here.