College Football Picks - November 14, 2009

We went 8-3 last week in college football (and 7-3 in the NFL) and look to build on that momentum this week. In case you haven't been tracking, we are on fire right now across all sports including NBA and NHL too. Over the past week across all sports we are 41-19 (68%) for +57.8 units. If you aren't getting NFL , NBA or NHL picks and want them, let me know by replying to this email.

This week we roll with two Thursday night picks and nine Saturday picks. Good luck to you!

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Bowling Green at Miami, Ohio (Thursday 11/12 6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Bowling Green -3.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Red Hawks finally got a win a couple of weeks ago, but still enter this one at 1-8. They have been out-scored by an average of 17.7 points per game on the season. Their defense ranks No. 73 in NCAAF and their offense has been a turnover machine. As a result, they are allowing 33.3 points per game, which ranks No. 108 out of 120 teams. When you consider the fact that they have touched the 30-point mark just twice, I find it difficult to understand why they are getting so few points here. The Falcons still have a chance to become Bowl eligible and will bring an offense that has produced over 400 yards per game. Bowling Green's passing game is ranked No. 4 in NCAAF, producing 338 yards per contest. They have a winning road record, a winning record in-conference and come in having won three of their last four. The Falcons have also been a good road team as they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 played on the road and 4-0 ATS in their last four on the road vs. a team with a losing home record. One team has everything to play for, and the other is just playing out the string. Bowling Green gets the call.

Both of these teams enter this one at 6-2 on the season, but Rutgers' record should have an asterisk by it. The Scarlet Knights have beaten Florida International, Howard and Texas Southern, along with Army for four of the six wins. Despite the soft schedule, the Rutgers offense ranks just No. 87 out of 120 teams. The only two challenges to their offense have been Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. In both those games, the Knights could not move the ball and did not top the 300 yard mark on offense. I would expect the top 25 defense of the Bulls to force similar problems for Rutgers here. The Bulls have played five games against teams that don't generate much offensively, and have held them to a combined 47 points - that's a very stingy 9.4 per game. It will be tough for Rutgers to top the 20-point mark in this one. Here is an amazing stat: The Bulls are 24-1 straight up in their last 25 games when holding their opponent to 20 points or less and in the only loss, they won ATS! That tells me that getting points here is the way to go.

The Tigers have really gotten it together after a very weak start going 2-3 out of the gate. But, they have now run off four straight wins. Two of the losses - TCU by just 3 and Georgia Tech by just 4 - came to teams with a combined one loss. This Clemson team has been living on defense, but the offense has come of age, and over the last four games they have scored 42 per game. They have been very consistent with no games coming in at less than 38. The Wolfpack have been finding themselves in shootouts almost every week, but it has been a recipe for disaster as they have lost four of their last five. The defense has really been coming up empty as each of the Pack's last six opponents has scored 31 or more. That is not going to get it done vs. a Clemson team that has the offense rolling and can play defense as well. The Pack simply won't be able to trade scores with the Tigers. I like Clemson in this one.

This is a big challenge for Central Florida as they have an offense that ranked dead last of all teams last year. They have moved up this season, but not by much as they rank 109 out of 120 teams. While the defense remains the stability of this team, they are going to see more offensive firepower here than they have seen all season. Houston had the best offense in football last year and sits atop again this season at 42 points per game. The Cougars' offense is for real as they have played against three BCS Conference schools and averaged 35 points against them! Against anyone else, the offense has been even better at 45.6 ppg. These teams didn't meet a year ago, but as a marker of UCF against an elite offense, the Knights were torched for 49 vs. Tulsa last year with their No. 43 ranked defense. This year their defense has dropped to No. 56. I find it difficult to believe that they can keep this Houston team away from 40, and the Knights have reached the 30 mark just three times in the last two years. I'm going with Houston in this one.

I also see a lot of value on the Cougars on the moneyline in this game. Houston's offense will be just too much here. The Cougars are putting up massive points on all comers, having already scored 40+ in five of their nine games. In the other four, they scored no fewer than 29. The Knights are just 9-31 in their last 42 games in which they allowed 28+ points and Houston is sure to eclipse that figure. In games with a total posted at 63+, Houston is 12-2 straight up under head coach Kevin Sumlin. I like Houston's chances to win this game a lot.

Utah State is 2-7 on the season and they are laying nearly two touchdowns? This team has exactly one win over a FBS team on the season, and it was by the narrowest of margins as they took down Louisiana Tech 23-21. Things certainly haven't gone so well for the San Jose State Spartans either as they have been blown out by 20 or more five times, but who beat this team by a large margin? Try USC, Stanford, Boise State, Nevada and Fresno State – all beat them by 20. I'm sorry but Utah State isn't close to any of those teams and no one else on the Spartans’ schedule has beaten them by more than 10 including a 7-3 Idaho team and an 8-1 Utah team. This Utah State team has yet to cover as a favorite of 2+ points where they stand at 0-3 ATS on the season. Meanwhile the Spartans are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a losing record. San Jose State gets creamed by good teams but they are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games vs. losing teams and 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games vs. teams at .250 or worse. Too many points here and I'm riding with San Jose State in this one.

The Cavaliers own the second-worst offense in all of NCAA football (ahead of only New Mexico State). Virginia is averaging just 263 total yards of offense per game and over their last three contests, it's been a ridiculous 181 per game. The Cavs have yet to top the 20-point mark in ACC play, and the defense is finally breaking down from being on the field so much as they have allowed 114 points in their last three games - 38 per contest. To put that 38 in perspective as it relates to this anemic offense, if Virginia had given up just half that amount (19 per game), they would still only have three wins on the season! It is doubtful that the Cavaliers will find much room vs. a Boston College defense that allows less than 20 points per game and ranks No. 32 in yards allowed per game. The Eagles are taking care of business at 4-0 ATS as a favorite, while Virginia stands at 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. The defense is fatigued and the offense just can't move the ball, which spells defeat, so I'm going with Boston College here.

When the Huskies beat Idaho in week two this season, they snapped a 15-game losing streak. This is a team that hasn't won on the road since '07 when they won 27-9 at Stanford but this is not the same team that went 0-12 last season. Last year they were just plain bad. But this year, they have been in most games and own wins over some teams that are doing pretty well, such as Idaho, Arizona and USC. They have hung around some tough teams as well losing by just 7 points in OT at Notre Dame, and by just 1 on the road a week ago at UCLA. They are knocking on the door as the last three on the road have seen them against Notre Dame, Arizona State and UCLA, and they'ce come away with an OT loss, a one-point loss and a seven-point loss. The Beavers are off a big win over California at home and may be a little flat here. They have not worn the favorite hat well at all as they are 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season. I like the Huskies plus the points. I also like the UNDER in this game. Oregon State is 5-3 UNDER this season while Washington is 3-1 UNDER on the road. The Beavers have played UNDER against teams with a losing record to a 21-8-1 mark in their last 30 as well as 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven as a favorite of 10.5 or more. The UNDER has gone 4-1-1 in the last six played in this series. I like Washington here and the UNDER.

This California offense has exploded for some big games as they have scored 45+ in four games this season. But, they have had their problems putting up points against the superb defensive teams, so the overall results look better than what could be expected vs. a Wildcat defense that ranks in the top 20 in the nation. Against the No. 29 ranked Oregon defense, the Bears produced just 3 points. Against the No. 37 ranked USC defense, they produced just 3 points. And, they got just 23 vs. a No. 15 ranked Arizona State defense. That doesn't bode well for big numbers vs. the Cats’ defense in this one. Arizona is sporting a lot of big UNDER tendencies as well as they are 10-2 to the UNDER as a dog of up to three points including 7-1 on the road in that same range and 13-6 to the UNDER after an ATS win. The Bears are 4-1 UNDER in their last five against a team with a winning record. I'm going with the UNDER in this one as Cal has been stalled against top defenses.

I have to believe that this total has been posted so high because the Razorbacks offense hung 63 on Eastern Michigan. That makes the offense vs. a Sun Belt foe look appealing for another big afternoon. But the real story is for Arkansas is the improvements that they have made defensively. After opening allowing 52 to Georgia and 35 to Alabama, they have allowed just 23 points per game. While the Troy offense is piling up points in the offensive-happy Sun Belt Conference, stepping out has not produced much. They have played against UAB, Florida and Bowling Green, having averaged just 15.7 ppg compared to their lofty Sun Belt status of 39.2 ppg. They also have struggled to score when playing on grass. Sure, in their six games on turf, they have put up big numbers. But in three grass games, this offense is averaging just 16.7 ppg! The Razorbacks, despite the offensive headlines, have played 5-2 to the UNDER in their last seven as the defense has improved. They are also 5-1 to the UNDER against teams with winning records. This one looks to high, so UNDER gets the call.

Results: 3-7

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Check out pro college football picks here.
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• Take a look at our Football Game-of-Week Analysis here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2009 NCAA football prior pick season results .
• Check out college football ATS records here.
• Check out our updated How we pick college football winners.
• View our college football spreads here.
• Don't forget to read our 2009 college football predictions here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-18-2009
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NCAA-Football-Picks-November-05-2009
The Northern Illinois Huskies sit at 3-1 in the MAC West, just a game behind Central Michigan and just one game from becoming eligible for a Bowl game. This certainly isn't the spot for them to ta...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-03-2009
The oddsmakers have basically rated this game even, with Buffalo getting a home-field nod in the betting line. But, are these teams really equal? Buffalo took a blow when their leading rusher of all t...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-29-2009
The Auburn offense looked like the real deal when they opened the season with four wins. They piled up the yardage and points, averaging 45.3 points per game in the process. But then the schedule got ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-22-2009
The Chippewas boast the best overall record in the MAC at 6-0, as well as the best record in the Conference at 4-0. They will face a Bowling Green team that has suffered just one loss in the conferenc...