darrell,

One game tonight and we like the total...

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Game: Ball St. at Toledo (Tuesday 11/14 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on UNDER 54

Ball St. is coming off an impressive performance versus #2 Michigan. The Cardinals scored 26 points in that game, and it has raised the total set in this game. A closer look is a bit revealing. Is there anyone in the country that would think Michigan would show up for that game? Ohio State was on deck and their attention was not going to be on this game. Despite that, they took a 31-12 lead midway through the 3rd quater before completely laying down mentally, physically, and emotionally. The 12 scored by the Cards were on an INT for a TD, a safety, and a 46 yd field goal, so let's not be fooled here. Ball St. spent a lot of emotion in that one and now going on the road vs. an opponent that is mediocre, is not going to create a great deal of excitement. Toledo has made a new discovery the past three weeks, and it is a running game led by JR. Jalen Parmele. It has done a couple of things. It has helped a defense by allowing them to stay off the field longer, and it has shortened games, because they can suddenly run the ball. Ball St. is a pass-first offense, and has put up some good scoring numbers. The Toledo defense has some skewed numbers giving up 393 yds to Iowa State, 391 to Kansas, 374 to Pitt, and 387 to C. Michigan (6-0 in the league). The last three games Parmele has rushed for 375 yds and the Toledo team has run for 588, compiling in succession, their highest totals of the year. The 588 yds. in the last three is light years from the previous six games where they totaled just 634! The benefit has been the defense, which has allowed just 329 to E. Michigan, 298 to Akron, and 267 to N. Illinois. N. Illinois is #35 in total yards in the country, and Akron #71. They stopped Akron's #36 rated pass offense, so they are prepared to take on the pass happy Cardinals. The Toledo defense has allowed just 16.6 ppg in its last three, compared to nearly 40 prior to this. We have a team coming off a high energy output versus the #2 team in the country, that may be a bit flat, facing a team that has improved on defense that runs the ball effectively. We look for the total to go under in this one.