Ncaa Football Bowl Predictions - November 15, 2008

Saturday we have five picks including a 5-unit selection.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Ohio State at Illinois (Saturday 11/15 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Illinois +9.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The public is swarming Ohio State in this one. Not so fast. The Illini are off a loss to Western Michigan, so how are they going to stay in the game vs. the Buckeyes? If you think last week they didn't have one eye looking to this game, then your missing something. Remember they beat Iowa two weaks ago, a team that just knocked off Penn State. So, expect that team, and more, to show up here. Don't underestimate how big a game this is for Illinois. They went to Columbus last year and won by a touchdown. The last time the Buckeyes came to Champagne, they were a whopping 24-point favorite vs. a 2-7 Illinois team. The Buckeyes barely got out alive 17-10. They won at Columbus 23-16 vs. an Illinois team that was 4-6 the time before. The Illini won in Columbus the two times before that, once as a double-digit dog. In the last three played in Champagne, the Buckeyes have not won by more than 7. It's simple... The Illini always get up bigger for this one than any other game. Speaking of looking ahead... After this one comes Ohio State's biggest game of the year vs. Michigan (records don't matter - this is one of the top rivalries in all of sports). After seeing the Illini mail it in vs W. Michigan, Ohio State sees an easy one here, but it won't be. I'll grab the Illini and the points.

How the perception of these teams has changed. Minnesota was rolling along at 7-1, but then took a couple tumbles. Wisconsin had lost five of six, before finding the win column at feeble Indiana. But let's not overreact to recent history. Ask yourself what this line would have been a few weeks ago? The answer would have likely been 7 or less. So the teams haven't changed, but the perception of them surely has, and as a result this one is chock full of line value. The Badgers made a QB change, but it hasn't improved their ability to throw the ball as they remain a ru-only team. The fact is, the passing numbers have gotten worse! Allan Evridge was completing to a 7.2 yards per pass rate while Sherer is sitting at just 6.3, with an even lower completion rate. Minnesota is simply not two TD's worse than the Badgers right now, and this is a huge overlay. Minnesota has lost to one team by more than this amount all season, and it happened to be in their last game. I'm backing the dog.

This is a very dangerous spot for the Cougars who have a date next week with Utah who is unbeaten in the conference. BYU could move into a first place tie with a win in that one. They went through a four-game stretch notching back-to-back shutouts, allowing just 17 points, while scoring 158 themselves. Yet things have changed for them. After getting spanked by TCU 32-7, they have had close calls vs. some bad teams. They eeked out a 42-35 win vs UNLV at home, and went on the road and needed a come from behind win at Colorado State to win 45-42. Air Force is a tough defensive team that runs the triple option which can pose a unique threat in this game, especially if the Cougars have their mind on next week. The Falcons have won five in a row and have not lost a game this season by more than 7 points. The 7 point loss was to Utah, so make no mistake - this team hung in very tough against a team battling for a BCS Bowl berth. BYU has not looked like the same team that started the season for several weeks now. Air Force is even better than the team that dropped a 7-point decision to Utah. As a result, the points look very good here. Under head coach Troy Calhoun, this Falcons team is 8-1 ATS in home games and 12-2 ATS vs. conference opponents. I'm backing the Falcons, with a shot at the upset as well.

The Tide has secured their fate in their own hands now. If they run the table, no one can keep them out of the National Championship game. They have a coach that has been there before in the same position, so he knows how to keep this team focused on the task at hand. Many will be looking at this one is a letdown spot for Bama, but there is no letdown spot when your playing for an undefeated season and the National Championship. If there's any lesson the past couple of years in College Football, it's that spots at the top are fleeting for teams that don't remaind focused. The Tide is turning back opposing offenses to the tune of 9.2 ppg at home and the Bulldogs have been enemic offensively, producing just 17 or less in six games. The defense was good early on but the rigors and wars in the SEC, the war of attrition has left this defense allowing 34, 34 and 38 in their three SEC road tilts. I think the Tide could very well keep the Dogs out of the end-zone here, and with the Bulldogs surrendering one of those 34's to an inept Vol's offense, touching 30 should be an easy task for the Tide. I like the big easy win for Bama here.

The Washington Huskies did themselves no favors by scheduling their three out of conference games against BYU, Notre Dame and Oklahoma. The schedule has been brutal, and while honorable, they are left winless at 0-9. They will now get a chance against a team that has been struggling in their own way in UCLA. The Bruins have recorded wins against Tennessee (terrible this year), Washington State (hapless) and Stanford at home by just 3 points. Don't forget this Huskies team lost to Stanford by just 7 at home, and that was really the easiest game on their schedule! Talk about schedule differences. These teams showed about equal performances vs. that common opponent, and with the Huskies playing hard for their first win, this line is a product of their record, certainly not of UCLA's prowess. The Bruins have traveled just three times this season, and stand at 0-3 in those games getting outscored 131-44. It is hard to believe this game is going to get their attention and "A" effort. It is a good spot for the Huskies, having a winnable game at home.

Results: 2-3

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to read our College football betting philosophy here.
• Don't forget to read our 2008 college football preview here.
• View Football Game Analysis here.
• Check out our updated NCAA football prior predictions.
• View our football sportsbook reviews here.
• Check out 2008 NCAA football prior pick season results here.
• Check out college football ATS standings here.
• View our college football odds here.
• View our updated ncaa football handicapper.
• View blog college football picks here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

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NCAA-Football-Picks-October-24-2008
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