darrell,

After a great week 9 we suffered a losing week 10 and now stand at just 25-24 on the year. We are not happy with that and this week look to take that up a notch. These picks are the best of the best from both Wunderdog and the newest Wunderdog handicapper, Mr. East. We have five picks this week. Good luck to you.

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Good luck to you...

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Buffalo at Akron (Thursday 11/09 6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +17

It is sometimes hard to look at a game and back a team that has been blown out on a few occasions already. There have been some significant changes to this Buffalo team that make this an overlay in our estimation. The Bulls have found a running back in James Starks. He has infused an enemic running game by carrying for 580 yds. in 5 games. They may have also found a QB in Tony Paoli as he got the nod vs Kent St. 14-20 193 with a TD. This team can score some points now, and will definately give up their share as well. Akron is not a big scoring team. They will score, but they also give up some, and 17 is a pretty juicy number considering some of the positive offensive changes made by Buffalo. Akron has not been a "blowout" type team, with just one win by more than 17 points this year. They have failed to cover 9 of last 12 double digit spreads at home. Buffalo on the other hand, has been able to stay competitive in these kind of games covering as a double digit dog in 7 of last 10 tries. They played competitively enough to hold Kent St. to 298 yds. We believe the improvements to the offense will also show themselves on defense, as they will not be on the field as much, so the demand will be eased by a team that can move the ball. Buffalo plus the points.

How bad is Stanford? Unbelievably bad. The Cardinal is 0-9 on the season. They have covered the spread in just one game this year. They have been an underdog in eight of the nine games. In those eight games they have not scored more than 10 points and have averaged 6.1 points per game! And they are getting worse having scored 7, 3 and 0 points in their last three games. They likely won't get to 10 this week either as we believe they have packed it in. Washington on the other hand has motivation. They have lost five straight after starting the season 4-1. They are not likely to hold back on Saturday. With two more wins, they have a shot at a bowl game so they have reason to play here. I don't like being on the side the public is on but in this case I'm making an exception. Washington should roll big.

Florida Atlantic comes in with the worse record and is thus instilled as a healthy home dog. But I like their position here. Troy is coming off three straight conference wins. So they are a bit contented. But they really underperformed in two of those games (1-2 ATS). Florida Atlantic is off a big loss at Middle Tennessee State. This after four very strong outings in which they covered the spread in all and won three of the four outright. We like them to bounce back here at home as their defense is playing extremely well. Troy is not that much better so take the points on the home underdog.

Last year Arkansas St. made it to their first Bowl game in school history and represented themselves quite well, losing but covering the New Orleans Bowl vs S. Miss. Middle Tennessee has yet to experience a Bowl game, but has already qualified this year. Arkansas St. is attempting to do what N. Texas has done - parlaying 4 consecutive Bowl bids and the extra practice time and extra game, to have a distinct advantage over the rest of the conference which is crucial at this level. Arkansas St. is in position to control its own destiny. They stand 3rd in the Sun Belt at 3-1 behind MTSU (5-0), and Troy (3-0). It all begins with this home game, because a win, and a win at Troy the following week, puts them at the top. The thing to like about Arkansas St. is their stellar defense. It ranks #33 in the country, but is even better than that. They have played in out of conference games way over their head vs Auburn, Oklahoma State, and SMU. When you look at this defense in their own conference, and vs teams of equal billing, they give up just 221 yds a game! That would be good for #2 in the country! We are not saying they have the 2nd best defense in the country - far from it. But you have to look at a team from a competitive position, and vs "like" competition, they indeed have the 2nd best defense in the country. You have to be concerned however, about the other side of the ball. They have been turnover-plagued, which makes those defensive numbers even more unbelievable. They have actually won two games this year in which they were a -3 in the turnover battle! That is very rare, but again, when your defense is that good, you can survive some mistakes. This is a huge game for Arkansas State. They are playing with triple revenge, and this would be win number 6. It is also their last home game, so they will be playing emotionally from many fronts. This is a dangerous place for teams to come in and try to get a win. Arkansas State has won its last 6 home conference games, and has been a loud barking dog, as they have been 13-4 ATS as a home dog, and have won 8 of those outright, and 2 of the 4 losses were by 2 and 3 points. That means they have covered a line of 3 or more on 15 of 17 occasions! MTSU is not an offensive power either, they rank just 113th in total yards, so points could be at a premium here. It looks like we have a live barking, hungry dog here!

This certainly will not be a battle of the titans, as each team enters with only one win to their credit. It sets a stage where both teams feel like they can win the game. Each has had its moments during the season, but by and large each has been overmatched week in week out. San Diego St. played Wyoming tough on the scoreboard last week, but the breakdown of that game shows exactly what is wrong with this team. They scored 24 points in that game, but one was a fumble return for a TD and the other two were on long passes, of 60 and 66 yards. One of which was at the end of the game. Those two plays combined for 126 yards. The rest of the game they gained just 106! Here is the darkest, most revealing stat of any team in the NCAA in recent memory. They have scored 13 TD'S this season:
60 pass, 66 pass, 27 pass, 34 pass, 49 pass, 18 pass, FUM RECOVERY, FUM RECOVERY, FUM RECOVERY, BYU up 40-3 scored 2 late TD's against 3rd string. This is their output. Do you notice something that is missing? There has not been one sustained drive for a TD the entire season! The best, and closest they have come is an 18 yarder. Other than that this team has not put the ball in the endzone from inside the 27 yard line. UNLV is no defensive stallwart, but then again, neither have some of the other teams on the schedule. The bottom line is that taking a TD+ against a team that has not been able to sustain a single drive the entire season will win you money more often than it loses it for you.