Winning Football Pick - November 08, 2008

Last week we went 4-4 in college (and 4-2 in NFL). We're hitting 56% over the past three weeks on the college gridiron. This week we have five picks including a big underdog moneyline pick and a selection in the best game of the weekend between #8 Oklahoma State and #2 Texas Tech. Good luck to you!

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Stanford at Oregon (Saturday 11/08 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1 unit on Stanford +425 (moneyline) (risk 1 to win 4.3)

The 2006 version of the Cardinal won just one game, but it was a big one. They went up to Washington in November as an 18 point underdog, and walked out with a win 20-3. Last year they improved some, finishing the season with four in the win column. They again notched a monster win, 24-23 over high powered USC on the road as a 39 point underdog. It was one of the biggest upsets of all time in college football, if not the biggest. Two weeks later they went down to Arizona and pulled off another big upset beating the Wildcats 21-20 as a 13.5 point underdog. This year they are a much improved team with five wins already. Two of those wins were upsets, but they have yet to notch the massive upset this year. Will Oregon be it? I think it's a good possibility! The Ducks sealed their fate in the Pac-10 when they lost for the second time this season in the conference to California last week. They are 6-3 and Bowl eligible. This is a sandwich game for them as they face Arizona next week. This is the perfect spot for them to take a breather and that's when Stanford seems to strike unepectedly. Oregon is just 8-12 straight-up the past three seasons after a conference game. They are also 2-6 in November games over that span. Under Mike Bellotti, the Ducks are 9-14 off a road loss. I will take Stanford on the moneyline here.

After getting buried by Oregon State on the road by 53, followed by a loss to USC at home by 69, the Cougars lost last week on the road at Stanford 58-0. How can I possibly back a team this bad? Easy: buy low, sell high. The ugliest duckling of them all is usually the goose that lays the golden egg in sports wagering. This line opened at 39, and quickly soared to 41, as bettors look at this game like a gift. They are acting as if they know the final score before the game is even played. A home dog of over 40? No matter. Washington State can't score, right? The whole point is finding value and there is long term statistical evidence that has delivered at a very high rate of return in games like this. I'll buck the scoreboard past, for the scoreboard present, and go with the Cougars to stay within the ridiculous number. Let's not forget that Arizona is not a good play as a favorite as they are hitting just 35% ATS in that role in their last 81 games! This line, and the betting action, is not rational. The Cougars were 42.5 point underdogs at home to USC. This line says Arizona is the equal of USC? Think not. What we have here are the oddsmakers juicing the line (and getting bites). After the five straight SU and ATS losses in horrible fashion, no one wants to touch Washington State. Value Cougars.

The Sun Devils were supposed to contend for the Pac-10 title. However, they lost a couple of games and totally quit on their coach. Their season was spoiled in week three with a loss to UNLV right before they were ready to make a statement against Georgia at home. Georgia came in and whipped them badly in a 27-10 loss, and this team has been a complete no-show ever since. The losing streak has reached six and at the beginning of the season this should have been the time of year we were talking about a winning streak of six with this team. Washington has yet to win a game this season, so they won't suddenly inspire Arizona State. So for a team that has already quit, going to play a nobody, they will be going through the motions. Meanwhile, the Huskies will be hungry to get their first win. They stayed within 7 of Stanford and caught BYU going through the motions, losing by just a point at home. They now get Arizona State who has been going through the motions for six weeks - a team that is 0-3 on the road averaging just 13 points per game. Arizona State hasn't covered the spread in the second of back-to-back road games in three seasons. I'll grab the lucrative points on the home dog here.

The Tigers, a team with national Championship aspirations, lost in consecutive weeks to Oklahoma State and Texas. That was a tough and disappointing strech for them. But, there is often a silver lining. We learned about the character of this team after their second straight loss that killed any hopes of a National title. The next game could have easily been one to sulk and sob their way through, going through the motions. But instead they showed what they are made of thrashing Colorado 58-0 at home. Kansas Statehas gone the other way. After getting blown out by Texas Tech, they lost on the road to a weak Colorado team, got blown out at home by Oklahoma, and went through the motions at Kansas. The Jayhawks took the will right out of this team with a couple early scores, going on to beat them by 31. I look for Missouri to do the same here: score early and take the will out of this team, because they have quit. The three best teams they have played have all layed 50+ on them, and Missouri is certainly a candidate to do the same. The Tigers have covered the spread in eleven of their last twelve home games vs. bad defensive teams (those allowing 31+ ppg). I'll lay the big number here, in what should be a major blowout.

I think there is something to be learned from what Texas just did. The Longhorns played their biggest game of the year against an unbeaten Oklahoma team and won. Everyone was piling on Missouri when they went to Texas, because most thought that emotionally the tank was going to be empty. It didn't play out that way however as Texas destroyed Missouri. It wasn't until two games later, on the road, that Texas stumbled. Now Tech is in the same place the Longhorns were against Missouri. Many feel that after the biggest win in program history, they will be flat here. This Tech team just beat the #1 team (a Texas team that had gone through one of the toughest schedules in college football history unblemished), and they are laying just a field goal now at home? I'm not buying it. I was on Tech last week because this team is for real. I'm on them again here, laying a very small number. If this was a lesser game, against an average team, maybe I could see the Red Raiders taking a breather, and going through the motions. But it's a huge game and they will be focused. Tech is in position now to be in the National title game, and there will be no letdown. With all due respect to Oklahoma State, the toughest two games on their schedule are yet to be played, and this is the toughest - in the toughest place to play. I think we saw something last week that no one wanted to believe about Tech. We've known for years that their offense is is virtually unstoppable. But for the first time, they can get after it on defense enough to disrupt a team. This game is now bigger than the Texas game for Tech, and they have the personnel to respond, especially at home. Under Mike Leach, Tech is 24-13 ATS as a home favorite. The Red Raiders win and cover here.

Results: 2-3

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our NCAA football betting philosophy here.
• Take a look at our 2008 college football team previews here.
• View our updated NCAA football Game-of-Week Analysis.
• Here we show our college football previous picks.
• Updated today: college football sports book.
• Here we show our 2008 NCAA football picks results.
• Don't forget to read our college football against-the-spread records here.
• View our NCAA football spreads here.
• View our updated free college football weekly game picks.
• Take a look at our football blog here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-30-2008
These teams meet every season, and there are few surprises as both like to employ the triple option on offense. Army, after a slow start, has been really effective running it in their last four games....

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-24-2008
Boise State is again undefeated which seems to be the norm in Boise every year. I don't think this is the same type of team the Broncos have had in the past howeve. Evidence is emerging to back th...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-23-2008
The Mountaineers were supposed to contend for a National Title contender this season, with Pat White and Noel Devine spearheading a big offense. After back-to-back losses to East Carolina and Colorado...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-21-2008
The Bobcats will be playing in their third straight on the road in this one and an offense that has managed under 20 points per game (less the VMI game) has managed only 14 per game when they are in t...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-17-2008
I don't think many would have expected these teams to come into this game with identical 5-1 records, but here they are. Georgia was supposed to run the table and make a Championship appearance. I...