College Football Predictions - November 10, 2007
We are off of a win with Akron on Tuesday to start the week. Last week our five-unit pick, Oklahoma State, was up 35-14 going into the fourth quarter and getting 3 points. After 24 unanswered from Texas, we settled for a push - very dissapointing. This week we'll take another stab at a 5-unit - again on the Cowboys...
Today's NCAA Football Picks:
Game: Arizona State at U C L A (Saturday 11/10 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on U C L A +7
Arizona State, as have many college football teams this year, saw the magic come to an end last week as they were handed their first defeat at Oregon. This is yet another team that has not shown any success on the road. Yes, they beat a bad Stanford team 41-3. But, they barely beat Pac-10 cellar dweller Washington State 23-20 on the road in a game they were outgained by 150 yards. So, in two of the three games they played on the road they have been significanly outplayed. Now they face the Bruins who are complete no-shows for the easy games, but show up big for the bigger games. They beat a very good BYU team soundly, handed Oregon State a thrashing on the road (OSU's only home loss) and pounded a good California team. But, the Bruines got crushed by an average Utah team and were hammered at Washington State. The message is clear: bring in a big team, and the Bruins come up big. Pu Arizona State on the road, and they are ordinary. Getting a bundle of points with the Bruins is a very sound, value laden investment. This is also a big letdown spot for ASU after losing for the first time, with USC on the horizon as well. UCLA has lost just twice in conference, and if they pin another loss on ASU, they are within striking distance of Oregon. UCLA is 13-5 ATS as an underdog under Karl Dorrell and 13-4 ATS at home over the past three seasons. We like the Bruins a s a live dog in this one.
Game: Memphis at Southern Miss (Saturday 11/10 4:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Memphis +16.5
We see a large overlay in this one. Southern Miss has dominated this series going 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS the past 15 years. But, the average spread in those games was Southern Miss by 5.5 points. Even in games played at home Southern Miss wasn't asked to lay anything near 16.5 points. The average home line was half of this number. It is difficult to ask a team that scores 26.9 ppg to cover a huge spread, especially when they are out-scoring their opponents by just 3 ppg on the season. Memphis is a team that can score. Their offense ranks #45 amongst all teams and at 27 ppg, should be able to put enough points up to cover this lofty spread. Southern Miss has had trouble with large spreads at home, because they have never been an offensive team, having covered a double-digit line just once in four years (total record: 1-6 ATS). Memphis has been just the opposite, as they have failed to cover as a double-digit dog on the road just once since November of 2001, and stand at 6-1 ATS in this role. With Tommy West as head coach, Memphis is 9-2 ATS on the road vs. winning teams. Southern Miss has just nine TD passes from their quarterbacks to 10 intercepts while Memphis stands at 21 TDs to 9 INTs. Memphis is going to be able to score enough to stay within the number here.
Game: Florida at S. Carolina (Saturday 11/10 7:45 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on S. Carolina +7.5
It's hard to believe these two teams are a combined 7-7 in the conference, but such is life in the rugged SEC. This is an interesting match-up of opposites. South Carolina is the #1 stop unit vs. the pass, but has trouble stopping the run. Florida is good against the run, ranked 18th, but 80th vs. the pass, which is what SC does best. It appears to be a challenging game for the defenses. This is a much different team than we saw last season with Florida. The Gators played 14 games last season, and just three times did they allow an opponent to reach 20 points. This year's team has allowed 20 or more in each of the last eight! S. Carolina, after opening 6-1, has fallen on hard times dropping their last three. But, two of those losses were on the road. This is a game that SC will have no trouble getting up for. With former Gator coach Steve Spurrier at the helm, SC has always seemed to be ready to face Florida. Last year they had a 16-10 lead late on the road, and almost pulled off the shocker before falling by 1 point. Two years ago they soundly beat the Gators at home. Florida lost 10 of their top 12 tacklers from a year ago and it shows. If there's one thing at which Spurrier excels, it is putting together a pass oriented offensive attack. This is a perfect matchup to exploit the Gators' weaknesses. This is a bigger game for SC than it is for Florida, and playing at home, versus his old school, you can bet his Gamecocks will be fully energized. The home crowd will be lathered up as well. In a game that should go the wire, we like the lofty spread. Throw in the fact that the gators are a horrible 1-8 ATS as a road favorite under Urban Meyer, and we have a play on the Gamecocks.
Game: Kansas at Oklahoma State (Saturday 11/10 8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Oklahoma State +6
Last week we saw a Kansas team in waiting, in a circled game against Nebraska, a team that had completely humiliated them on many occasions. The Jayhawks certainly got themselves up for the game, and put one on Nebraska. It was a big "take that" beat down based on years of pent up frustration. It has been 100 years since Kansas has opened a season 9-0. The nation has finally noticed. Their perfect record thus far is in part because of their superb play, but also comes thanks to a cupcake schedule. Kansas played no one out-of-conference. Games vs. Central Michigan, SE Louisiana, Toledo, and Florida International filled the stat sheets and the win column, but did little to prepare them for the road ahead. They have also met Baylor and Nebraska at home. The 6-0 home record shows Kansas out-scoring these teams 348-72. But these teams Kansas has beaten at home are a combined 5-24 SU with wins vs. such powers as Kent State, Western Michigan, Ball State and Buffalo. These six teams that combine for a 5-24 road record are being out-scored on the road by 1225-531!! If you look at Kansas on the road, they have been held in check all season. Wins have come by 5, 6 and 8 points to mediocre teams as the Jayhawks put up just 22.7 ppg (vs. 58.0 in home games). They are off their most emotional win of the season, and have Missouri waiting in the wings. Meanwhile Oklahoma State hasn't dropped a game to Kansas at home since 1995. We will ride the points, and what could be an Oklahoma State straight-up win.
Results: 2-2
NCAA Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:
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NCAA-Football-Picks-October-19-2007
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