Ncaa Football Picks - November 07, 2009

We grabbed the win on Tuesday night. Below we have a pick a Thursday game as well as nine selections for Saturday. Good luck!

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Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois (Thursday 11/05 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Northern Illinois -21 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Northern Illinois Huskies sit at 3-1 in the MAC West, just a game behind Central Michigan and just one game from becoming eligible for a Bowl game. This certainly isn't the spot for them to take a breather, especially under the national spotlight. It has been a lost season for Eastern Michigan. The Eagles are allowing nearly 41 points per game over their last six, and when you couple that with an offense that hasn't topped the 27-point mark all season, it is hard to find the win column. The Eagles are allowing 6.4 yards per carry, so I look for the Huskies to pile up the rushing yards in this one. Eastern Michigan is just 3-13 ATS the past three seasons when coming off a road game. The Huskies dominated play a year ago on the road as they beat the Eagles 37-0 and ran for well over 200 yards. I look for something close to a repeat here with the Huskies dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage and getting the win and cover in this one.

A lot of people are down on Iowa based on their performance last week. They were down 24-14 going into the fourth quarter vs. Indiana. They went on to win the game by 18 points, scoring 28 unanswered in the final period. But instead of getting credit for that feat, they are getting beat up. I was actually impressed by that, knowing that Iowa was in a difficult spot last week. The fact that they could make that sort of comeback says a lot about a team that was supposed to be about defense only. We've been on Iowa a few times this year and they've done well for us. I like them here as well. They feel like they have something to prove based on what happened last week. They are also motivated by revenge. Northwestern beat the Hawkeyes 22-17 last season. That was a stinging loss as Iowa was favored by 9 points coming into the game. Even after allowing 24 last week, the Hawkeyes are giving up just 15.8 per game on average on the season. These teams have shared three opponents this season: Indiana, Michigan State and Penn State. The Wildcats lost two of those three and averaged 18.7 points scored vs. 28.7 allowed. Iowa beat all three including Penn State on the road. Their average score vs. the three was 26 to 15.7. Iowa is just too strong, and they have a couple of big motivating factors to boot. I like Iowa to run away with this one.

The Razorbacks stand at 4-4 on the season. They have a potent offense and are off a game where they scored 63 points against a defensless Eastern Michigan team. Arkansas' offense has produced 40 or more points in five of their eight games on the season, but a closer look reveals that the offense has been mediocre at best vs. good defensive teams. The Razorbacks have played Alabama, Florida and Mississippi - all teams that rank amongst the best in the nation defensively and their combined offensive output in those three games was just 44 points, or less than 15 per game. South Carolina certainly has been among the ranks of those three defensively as the Gamecocks enter this one ranked No. 18 in the country on defense. They have held six of the nine teams on their schedule to 20 points or less, and at the same time their offense has gone cold. The Gamecocks’ offense has been grounded the over last three weeks where they have scored a combined 33 points, or just 11 per game. This one will be hard-pressed to make it to 50, so I'm going UNDER here.

This is a huge game for the Aggies as they can become bowl eligible with a win. With two of their last three games remaining vs. Oklahoma and Texas, they certainly will be focused to grab win number six in Colorado against the Buffalos. The biggest difference in this A&M team over last season is a high powered, more consistent offense. Last year the Aggies topped 30 points just once on the season. This season the offense has toppled the 30-point mark six times in their eight games. The Buffalos have not been so offensive except perhaps to their fan base who are looking for a coaching change. The Buffs have reached 30 points just twice, but their opponents have topped the 30 mark five times already this season, and good offensive teams have given them trouble. They got down 33-0 last week before salvaging some 2nd half points - a sign that this team truly has given up. The Buffs are just 10-21 ATS in their last 31 conference games and their sputtering offense has revealed that after scoring 20 points or less they have been 2-9 ATS in their next game. After generating less than 275 yards of offense, they are just 1-8 ATS in their next game. This is a big game for the Aggies, and they won't let this opportunity pass, and I'll go with A&M on the moneyline.

Missouri is elite and Baylor is not. Well, at least that's how the general public views this game. The fact is, Missouri is not great this year. In their four home games they have actually allowed more points than they have scored. A very weak and defeated Colorado team made the Tigers look good last week, but Colorado has been doing that to teams all season long. Prior to that game, Mizzou hasd lost three straight games by a combined score of 36-101. THeir wins this season ahve come vs. lowly Colorado, Bowling Green, Nevada and Furman. They own only two ATS wins on the season. While this team was great last year, the 2009 Missouri Tigers, who lost 13 starters from last year's team, are mediocre. Baylor has struggled in Big 12 play but they gave Nebraska a fight last week, losing by 10 points. This is a lot of points to lay for a team that has posted only one win by this spread vs. FBS teams all season long. I like Baylor to hang tough.

Notre Dame is 5-2 with the two losses to USC and Michigan being close. Maybe the Fighting Irish are turning the corner back to respectability. Maybe they are really close - heck they aren't that far from 7-0. Not! Let's look past the 5-2 straight-up record. Those five wins came against teams they were supposed to beat. The Irish have been a favorite in all but one game this season. The reality is, they have underperformed - not overperformed. This is evidenced by their 1-6 ATS record. Yes, they have won games, but for the most part they have squeaked by when they were supposed to win easily. They have not covered the spread yet as a favorite. Like those other lines, this one is inflated due to the name and TV coverage. The reality is that the Irish should be laying closer to a touchdown in this game - not double digits. Notre Dame used to destroy Navy year-in-and-year out. They had won this game 43 straight times before 2007. But Navy won that game 46-44. The following year Navy lost by just 6 points. Need more proof of inflated Irish lines, especially in this matchup? The last nine times these teams have met in South Bend, Navy is 9-0 ATS! These teams are nearly the same statistically. Notre Dame is averaging 31 points per game, Navy 29. The Irish give up 23 per game, Navy 21 per game. Both have won six games. I'm not saying these teams are equals, but they are closer than this large spread.

Tulane is simply a very poor college football team. If you go back to last season, this team has just one win over a FBS team, and that was by the narrowest of margins as they slipped by Army by a single point 17-16. The Green Wave is that one-point win against Army away from being 0-15 vs. BCS teams in their last 15 tries. Other than that Army game, they have surrendered 30+ points in every game played this season. That runs the string to 13 of the last 14 teams they have played topping the 30-point mark. Why is that significant? The Green Wave hasn’t scored more than 24 points in their last 15 games vs. FBS opponents. They will be hard-pressed to stay with a Miners team that has averaged 34.8 ppg in their last four. The Green Wave has stayed in a few games as a dog of 3.5-10 where they are 5-2 ATS, but the straight-up wins aren't showing up, so I'm backing UTEP on the moneyline in this one.

Utah sits quiety at #14. I say quietly because they don't get much attention, despite a 7-1 record, with the only loss coming to what now appears to be a very good Oregon team. That loss came on the road in Oregon, and only by a touchdown. In their other seven games, all wins, they have allowed no more than 17 points, ranking them amongst the elite in the FBS. They face a terrible New Mexico team that hasn't won a game all season and is getting outscored by over 20 points per game. There are only seven teams in the entire FBS that have a worse defense and only six that have a worse offense! I treally doesn't get much worse than that. They really have had two winnable games on their schedule this year. They played New Mexico State in week three in a game in which they were actually favored by double-digits. They lost. Then two weeks ago the Lobos hosted UNLV as a 1 point underdog. They lost by 17 points. The bottom line is we have a great team playing a truly awful team. In college football, that usually spells big-time blowout. I like Utah to roll big-time here.

Air Force delivered for us last week and I like them to do it again this week. After a shaky start, this team has only failed to cover the spread once in their last five games. The most similar game on their schedule to this one occured in week two when they were a 16.5 favorite over New Mexico. They covered that large number, winning 37-13. Now they get Army, a team that has won just two games all season, and covered the spread only once. They are scoring just 16.9 points per game and that average has been dropping as the season wears on. Air Force has hung over 30 per game on opponents here at home so it's hard to imagine how Army will keep up in this game. Army is coming off a bye week but that is not a positive for them as they are 7-26 ATS in their last 33 games following a bye! Meanwhile, Air Force is 8-1 ATS over the past three seasons at home when returning home from a road game. And, under head coach Trou Calhoun, they are 9-2 ATS vs. losing teams. I like Air Force to ride high to a big win.

Florida State was supposed to be on an uptick, but the defense has been a no-show for the entire season. The ‘Noles have been scorched for 26+ in six of seven FBS games. When they have faced a competent defense, it has slowed them down as well and they stand at 2-6 ATS on the season - disappointing and under-achieving. There was no question that the Tigers’ defense alone would keep them in games, but the offense is catching up as the Tigers are off of their three best performances of the season - all in their last three games. This suddenly makes them a very dangerous team. The Tigers control their own destiny in the ACC Atlantic by virtue of a 25-7 head-to-head win over Boston College, who is tied at the top with the Tigers at 3-2. The Tigers become bowl eligible with a win here, but overall they are playing their best football of the season, and the same can't be said for Florida State. I'm going with Clemson in this one.

Results: 7-3

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our expert football free picks here.
• View our updated college football prior picks.
• Hop over to our blog football picks here.
• Updated today: college football sportsbook reviews.
• Check out Football Game-of-Week-Preview here.
• Check out 2009 college football picks here.
• View college football against-the-spread records here.
• View our updated NCAA football betting philosophy.
• Read our NCAA football odds and lines here.
• View our 2009 college football predictions here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-03-2009
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NCAA-Football-Picks-October-29-2009
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NCAA-Football-Picks-October-22-2009
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NCAA-Football-Picks-October-21-2009
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NCAA-Football-Picks-October-15-2009
This is an intriguing game. The Hawkeyes remain one of only eight unbeaten teams in NCAA Football. They've won ten straight games dating back to last season. They face the Badgers who have just on...