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We had a great week 9 as we went 5-2 last week. Five picks this week - all Saturday games. Good luck to you...

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Good luck to you...

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Pittsburgh at S. Florida (Saturday 11/04 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on S. Florida +5.5

The Big East was scrutinized severely last year, after the defections of Miami, Virginia Tech and BC. This year is completely different with three teams undefeated, and two ranked in the top ten. This matchup features a couple that are in the middle of the pack, yet both are going to be Bowl bound and both have very good teams. Rutgers was lucky to come out of S. Florida with their national ranking and unbeaten season still intact. S. Florida led at the half, outgained Rutgers, had a minus 2 turnover deficit, and survived a 53 yd FG, and still had a chance to send the game into OT. A wide open Amp Hill dropped a two point conversion attempt that would have sent the game into overtime. Pitt has not played much of a schedule at this point, and have compiled a 6-2 record vs some suspect competition. The defenses they have won against include non-div 1-A Citadel, C. Fla #149, Syracuse #135, and Toledo #87. Rutgers held them to just 10 points, and this S. Florida team has a very quick defense that ranks #35 in the country. There is one thing besides the defense, that has made S. Florida a difficult team to play, and that is frosh QB Matt Grothe. He has been prone to freshman mistakes, and at the same time has created difficulty for defenses. He is the best runner on the team, and possesses a very strong passing arm. The quickness of the Rutgers defense kept Pitt from getting anything going, and I believe they will have a similar dilemna vs S. Florida. This game looks pretty even to me, and that simply means the points are the way to go.

Here we get a 7-2 ballclub getting nearly a touchdown to a 6-3 team. Nebraska started strong winning six of their first seven, losing only to USC. But since then they lost to Texas and Oklahoma State. And USC isn't looking as tough as they once did. Missouri also started strong winning six in a row before losing to Texas A&M and Oklahoma while beating K. State. The bottom line is that these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Last year Nebraska lost 41-24 to the Tigers in the favorite role. Missouri is playing very good defense, allowing just 15.9 per game on the season. Missou is off a big 16 point loss to Oklahoma and I like them to be focused for a bounceback. The Tigers are in fact 13-2 ATS off a home loss by 2+ touchdowns over the past decade. Look for the Tigers to fight hard and keep this one close.

The past 2 weeks we have seen 2 different Clemson teams, one that ran all over G tech, and another that was stonewalled vs. Va Tech. We faded Clemson big last week. The question is which team shows up for this one? Let's look back. Georgia Tech was off a big win, came into Clemson, and got steamrolled. Clemson goes into Morgantown, off a big win, and gets smacked down. So now you have an angry team, that is in a favorable matchup. Maryland has won 3 straight, so they will have Clemson's attention. There is two things that matter here. The first, as mentioned above, is the Clemson mindset. They will bring it this week - there is no doubt about that. The second is what happened at Virginia Tech. Tech had the perfect gameplan and the team in the right motivational mode, and most importantly, the team with the right personnel to pull off the gameplan. Clemson has not been run on all year. Clemson has bookend future NFL DE's. Beamer brilliantly pinches them to the outside, forcing safeties to cheat up, opening up the middle, and with the strength of his offensive line, they get 37 carries for 203 yds. This also setup the Clemson defense for play action, and a long completion to put the game away. The defense put 8, sometimes 9, in the box, and took away the running game, and playing from behind was not gonna work in Morgantown, and against V Tech. So why can't Maryland do the same? They don't have the personnel to do it. W. Virginia ran all over them, jumped out to a 28-0 1st qtr lead, and coasted. The rushing total? 341 yards! Clemson will do the same. And, more importantly, Clemson is coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV. This one has plenty of one-sided potential. Tigers minus the points.

This game features 2 teams that have put a lot of points on the board. LSU comes in averaging 35.9 ppg while Tenessee enters scoring 32.2 ppg. It has the appearance of an old fashioned shootout... Or does it? A closer look at LSU shows they have scored 45+ in 5 different games, and 38 in yet another. These points were manufactured on defenses that on average rank #106 in the country in points allowed! The only two good defenses they played, that are close in rank to Tennessee, are Auburn and Florida. Against these two, LSU was only able to put up 10 and 3 points. The same picture can be painted for the Vols. The points they score are skewed by defenses that don't compare to what they will face in this contest. They managed 20 points vs FLA, but only gained 220 total yds. They also held Cal down to their lowest total of the year. It isn't always the numbers that tell the story, as would be the thought here, it is a look at the important numbers that expose the value in this one. Go UNDER here.

It has been a long time since Miami has been installed as a home dog. The last time was versus Florida State at +6.5 in a game they won outright. You have to go back to the 99-00 season to find a loss as a dog at home. The line is very fitting to me, but sometimes it isn't about the line being on or off, it is the game circumstances heading into it. We have all heard about the Miami suspensions, and Cokers job security for the last few weeks. Sometimes that can galvanize a team into being more focused than it was before, especially when your Miami and all of a sudden you find yourself in an unfimiliar role, a dog in your own house. Virginia Tech, who seemed like they may be in a less than vintage year, all of a sudden has the attention of everyone after a complete domination of a very good Clemson team. We loved Va Tech in that spot last week, but now the emotional factors have changed sides. It would not be unreasonable, as we saw in Clemson last week, for Tech to come out a bit less focused here, as teams coming off a highly emotional game tend to have a difficult time matching that intensity the following week. There is another important factor at play here. Ore rushed the ball 37 times vs Clemson, and 23 the week before that. That is 60 carries in two weeks. Prior to these last two weeks he had not had more than 40 carries in consecutive weeks. Miami on defense does one thing exceptionally well: they stop the run. They have had 108 rushing attempts against them at home, yielding just 162 yards! The season has them ranked 8th in the country against the run. Louisville brought in a 216 ypg rushing offense and was held to 95 on 31 carries. Georgia Tech (159 ypg coming in) was held to 87 on 33 carries. Florida Sttate (111 ypg) was held to 4 on 24 carries. That puts a lot of pressure on Ore and, after 60 carries, he may not be up to his peak performance. No one else has gained more than 58 yds on the season for V Tech. That will put a lot of pressure on QB Brennon, who has only thrown for 356 yards and one TD to go with three picks in his last three games. This is just not the right place for V Tech, and they will have their hands full with the Hurricanes. Take Miami in the very rare home dog role!