Free Pick College Football - November 03, 2007

Added pick: a few times a season we come across an opportunity to take advantage of a weather situation that provides for an extremely favorable betting opportunity. With some bad weather rolling in to the northeast, we've spotted one. Get on down on this BC-Florida State pick ASAP before the line plummets!

We feature five picks including a top-rated 5-unit play as a 4-unit selection.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Ucla at Arizona (Saturday 11/03 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Arizona +1.5

UCLA is a tough team to figure out. So far they have dissapointed and underperformed, and that usually points to leadership issues or hidden team problems. Last week they went to Washington State and got hammered. They were outgained by nearly 300 yards by a bad 2-5 team. The week before they beat California at home convincingly. The week before that they lost 20-6 to a hapless Notre Dame team that can't score or defend. They also got whipped at Utah by 38 on the road. Arizona has won or been competitive in every game they have played at home. Willie Tuitama can really air it out, as he has thrown for 2,800 yards, 21 TDs and just 9 INTs. UCLA looks like the type of team that just wants to show up for the big games, and has no interest. If they get down, they fold. UCLA is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as a road favorite in the Pac 10. They have big games vs. Arizona State, Oregon and USC on deck so we dont' expect UCLA to be focused here. Look for an Arizona team that has been very sharp at home to grab control early and deflate the easily deflatable Bruins.

North Carolina simply has no offense. They appear to be more than they really are. Backers will point to their win vs. Miami and apparent competitive game vs. SC. But, we see them for what they are - a very bad team. They caught Miami sleeping and went up 27-0. But they had to hang on for dear life to get the win. SC was cruising 21-3 on the road at the half, played a scoreless 3rd quarter, and NC made a game out of it after the outcome was determined. How bad is this team offensively? Outside of the Miami game, they have not found the endzone in their other four games until the 4th quarter when the games were decided. T.J. Yates has more INTs than TD passes this year. Maryland has had a very difficult six week schedule. They have had to face West Virginia, Wake Forest, Rutgers, Georgia Tech, Virginia and Clemson. They are 1 point away from spliting those six games. Maryland will use it's huge OL to pound NC between the tackles and it shouldn't take many points to put this one away. North Carolina is just 18-33 ATS as a home favorite over the past decade. One team here is going to a Bowl game, and the other is not. Wrong team favored.

ULM running back Dawson has amassed nearly 1,000 yards already and in this game can set the all-time UL Monroe career rushing record. This team is superb - better than most think - having won and covered three of their last four. This game is a tough one for Middle Tennessee State, especially as a road favorite. Blue Raiders QB Dwight Dasher has been the offense for Middle Tennessee State (60% with 8 TDs to one INT). He's out this week with a knee injury. This is a team that is allowing 33 ppg on the road on way to a losing record. They've won their last three but two of those wins were against much weaker competition - Arkansas State and North Texas. We like UL Monroe to give a good fight here and cover this number.

This is a match-up that Oklahoma State has had circled for a long time. Last year they went to Texas and were hammered 36-10. The tide has turned however! Oklahoma State has one of the most balanced offenses in the NCAA. Zac Robinson has passed for over 1,500 yards with 13 TDs to just six INTs. He has completed TDs to seven different recievers, but his favorite target has been Adarius Bowman who has caught 50 balls for 802 yards. He's well on his way to an All-American season. Robinson is more than an arm and a leader. He is a duel threat that has churned out 415 yards on just 68 carries (6.1 per carry). That puts him just third on this team. Dantell Savage has carried 124 times for 746 years (6.0 ypc) and Kendall Hunter has toted 76 times for 573 yards (7.5 ypc). This trio has pounded defenses for 1,734 yards, on 6.5 ypc. The offense is good and ranks 10th in the NCAA. The defense has had some moments, and they have had some problems. They gave up over 700 yards to Texas Tech and over 500 yards to Kansas State. What was similar about those two games? They won them both! This is one of the very few teams in the country that can overcome 700 yards allowed and win! Texas was supposed to be built to win it all, or be in the hunt to win it all come January. That hasn't happened. The problems start with QB Colt McCoy. McCoy has put up some impressive numbers but with 15 TD passes and 13 INTs, you can see the problem. Signs were evident all the way back to week one when Texas struggled against a futile Arkansas State team at home 21-13. They struggled against a decent Central Florida team and trailed in the 4th Quarter. If not for an INT returned for a TD, they end up on the short side of the scoreboard. They were beaten by 20 at home by Kansas State. They then trailed a Nebraska team that had been blownout three straight weeks, including a game vs. Oklahoma State. They were down 17-6 midway through the third in that game. Texas has seen special teams breakdowns, defensive breakdowns, and Colt McCoy imploding during games. They now face another problem. They are going to be missing at least one defensive line player, and maybe two as Roy Miller and Thomas Marshall are both battling injuries. We have watched as this Texas team has struggled at home vs. much lesser competition, and have not come close to being tested on the road. Their road conference wins have come to Baylor and Iowa State teams that combine for four total wins. Texas is just 1-5 ATS in their last six conference road games. This is a hungry Oklahoma State team, and they have been beaten into the ground by Texas for a longtime. They finally have a team that can beat them. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game. OSU is 4-0 at Boone Pickens Stadium, outscoring opponents 41-8. They have lost nine straight to Texas, but that will come to an end in this one.

The Big East has had some surprise teams this season. Earlier this year, the nation watched S. Florida rise near the pinnacle of the BCS only to meet their demise soon therafter. The problem for bettors who jumped on their bandwagon is that by the time they were "known," the value was gone. UCONN has now risen to the number 13 position, and it is time to get off this bandwagon as the value is once again gone. Here is a team at the height of their season, and the line is dropping against them. And for good reason. The Huskies will run out of smoke and mirrors, and the top 10 rated defense, which has been exposed the last three weeks. Exposed-yes, but also hidden as they have come away with two victories. The Huskies have been given two wins by officials - one vs. Temple, one vs. Louisville. They played one of the softest schedules in the nation in the first five weeks. They have since had three tough games in a row and it is wearing. The Huskies have been out-gained by every one of their last three opponents. They have had good fortune, as they played Louisville and S. Florida in the rain, S. Florida in the rain. They lost to Virginia. Rutgers is coming off a humiliation to W. Virginia, who will win the Big East. So we take that loss with a grain of salt. Ray Rice will have his way with the UCONN defense in what will be good playing conditions this week. Under Schiano, Rutgers is 30-17 ATS as an underdog. And, good road teams (those at 60%+ SU) are 27-7 ATS the past five seasons following a 21+ point loss to a conference rival. Connecticut is in a good letdown spot after their biggest win ever (and first ever national ranking). We look for Rutgers to not only win here, but win convincingly!

This is a late addition and it is solely based on game conditions. The weather forecast has changed considerably and this game will see winds from Hurricane Noel have a dramatic impact on the game. The sustained winds in Boston are forecast to be in the 30-40 MPH range with gusts to 60 MPH or higher. We had a few of these last year, in both the NFL and NCAA and they came through each time. We advise you play this as soon as possible because the total will drop very quickly on this one!

Results: 2-2

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated 2007 college football preview.
• View weekly college football predictions here.
• Here we show our College football betting philosophy.
• Updated today: NCAA football prior picks.
• Hop over to our 2007 football pick season results here.
• Read our college football ATS records here.
• Here we show our Football Game-of-Week-Preview.
• Don't forget to read our football blog here.
• Read our sports betting college football here.
• Don't forget to visit our college football odds lines and spreads.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-26-2007
Defense surely has not been the calling card for this Louisville team, but there are signs that it is coming together. They allowed an average of 40 ppg in weeks 2-4, but have since held good opponent...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-25-2007
Well the good news here is that one Top 10 team will NOT lose. In the craziest year in college football in recent memory, the top teams continue to drop like flies. Last week it was #2 USF's turn....

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-19-2007
While having one of these teams at 4-3 and the other at 5-1 may be "normal" at this point in the season, few would have guessed which team would be which. Both teams have been a  big su...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-18-2007
We have watched all the top teams get picked off week after week so far in 2007. Not one preseason Top 10 team still stands undefeated! South Florida has taken advantage of the situation, playing...

NCAA-Football-Picks-October-11-2007
How people seem to have forgotten the recent past. Wake is a big home underdog here despite having beaten Florida State the first and only home shutout loss of the Bobby Bowden era (31 years). Was it ...