darrell,

It's been a tough bowl season overall for us but we look to go out on a high-note. In looking for the area to focus tonight, we have won 8 of our last 12 ATS side picks so that's where we'll focus on tonight's game.

Wunderdog Picks Results Check out my 12-month performance here.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Florida vs. Ohio State (Monday 1/08 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Florida +7.5

The Bowl game that everyone has looked forward to is here - the game for the bragging rights of best in College Football. Ohio State comes in unblemished while Florida will bring just a single loss into the game. Will Florida make it five underdog winners in a row in this game? Or will Ohio State continue their dominating play on both sides of the ball and post a blowout win? We of course have an opinion. Looking at this game on the surface, it would be very easy to decide that Ohio State is the play. They score more, they give up less, have the Heisman Trophy winner and they have marched through their season virtually unchallenged. Florida on the other hand had several close games, and it would be easy to argue that yet another loss or two wasn't far away. We felt this needed a deeper analysis however. We went back and took a closer look at the offenses and defenses. Florida's offense is ranked #21 in the nation. They did it against 10 teams that were Bowl bound and had an average defensive rank of 40.5. Ohio State compiled their #19 ranked offensive numbers against defenses that were ranked on average 69.1. So we have two teams that have ranked out offensively pretty even, but one (Florida) did it vs. a much stiffer defensive aggregate. We then dove into the defensive stats. Florida finished with the #8 ranked defense while playing against offenses that combined to rank 51.1. Even more importantly, on the road they played defenses that ranked 40.7. Ohio State has the #3 ranked defense compiled vs. an average offense by opponents of 66.3, or more importantly 69.2 on the road. So we have two teams that rank out just about even (small edge to Ohio State), but Florida has clearly played against much stiffer competition week in and week out. Florida's perfect season was ruined by Auburn. They led Auburn 17-8 before Auburn got a field goal before the half. So the 3rd quarter began with Florida up 6. Then the game changer occurred late in the 3rd quarter as Auburn made a big play and blocked a punt for a TD, and went up 18-17. They added a FG early in the 4th and led 21-17, and scored on a Florida fumble as time expired. You also have to remember that Florida was off a convincing win against LSU the week before 23-10. Florida competed against very strong competition every single week with eight of the teams ranked in th top 40 on defense. Meanwhile only one of Ohio State's last eight opponents ranked as high as 50! We also wanted to see how Ohio State has fared against the SEC in their history. It was hard! Your won't find any recent regular season games against the SEC, which in itself is telling. Why, you must ask. They are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS in the seven "forced" games vs. the SEC - all Bowl games. Then there is the coaching match-up. Who is going to be better prepared, how does the coach of an underdog get his team ready to take on a team that is at least perceived to be better? Urban Meyer has only been a coach on the college level since 01-02 when he took the reigns at Bowling Green and did a great job there. It got him the Utah job, and his unreal performance with the Utes ultimately got him this gig at Florida. We view a coach as being a good coach when he can not just cover a point-spread as an underdog, but finds a way to devise a game-plan to win the game outright. Meyer has been 14-3 ATS when he has coached as an underdog! The 17 games he was not supposed to win? He won 11 of them straight-up, and to some pretty good teams such as Texas A&M, Missouri, California, Oregon, LSU, and Iowa. He is also 4-1 ATS vs a team ranked in the top 10. This could be the definining moment in his career where he goes from potentially great to great. The last part of the puzzle is what is Florida going to do about Troy Smith, Ohio State's difference maker. Will he have a Heisman-worthy game and lead his team to a big victory? History says just the opposite. When a Heisman Trophy winner plays in a Bowl game his team is a dismal 8-22 ATS last 30 years. We have a team in Florida that can match the speed of Ohio State that is ranked evenly with them on both sides of the ball, but has done it against far superior competition week in and week out, getting over a touchdown. We know Ohio State is a great team and capabable of winning big. But in their only real test (Michigan), they won by 3 in their house. Michigan went on to get crushed by the Pac-10's best team in their bowl. Makes you wonder. Here we get a ton of value on a big underdog that has been well tested, survived and brings in a winning coach. We are on the underdog getting 7.5. You may also consider swinging for the fences and backing Florida for a smaller amount on the moneyline. It's paying +250. Consider that Urban Meyer has only lost 12 of 54 games in his career. He's 10-1 straight-up when he has two weeks to prepare for a game and he's 17-2 SU in non-conference games. Go Gators!