Football Pick Great Bet - January 06, 2009

Well, our CFB picks have started off on the wrong foot as we finished up our last set of bowl picks 2-3 for -5.5 units yesterday. Luckily there is still time left in the Bowl Season to get things turned around - and that starts today! We feature seven premium plays in our latest set of bowl picks from today through January 6.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Eastern Carolina vs. Kentucky (Friday 1/02 5:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Kentucky +3 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 41 -110

East Carolina was the surprise of the country in the early going. They beat Virginia Tech and West Virginia in back-to-back games to open the season - vaulting them into the national spotlight. Things went downhill fast after a third win over Tulane. The great start was met with three-straight painful losses where they gave up 106 points to teams that would go on to earn a Bowl bid. They finished strong, but nowhere near the team they were in those first two. Two trips into BCS conference territory resulted in two losses by 21 points. Kentucky met a similar fate as they opened 4-0, toppling Louisville. In game five, they suffered their first loss to a top-rated Crimson Tide team by just three points on the road. They also hung tough scoring 38 against a good Georgia defense, dropping the game by four, and were even with South Carolina late until losing by seven. Outside of their big games to open the season East Carolina hasn’t played any big teams and struggled in too many games where they should have dominated. Kentucky played a much more difficult schedule and almost broke through against top teams. Kentucky hasn't shown a big offense, but against teams with winning records they seem to rise up, as all four of their last games against teams with winning records have gone OVER. I think they are battle tested, and East Carolina has not been anywhere near the team that took the field in the first two weeks, so I'll back Kentucky and the OVER here.

This is a well-balanced Utah team that has scored 30 points or more in nine games this year. The same can be said for Alabama that has scored 29 or more in eight games on the season. The Tide defense has been tough all season, but a closer look shows few good offenses on the schedule. Utah has the 32nd best offense in the country. ‘Bama has played just three teams in the top 40 on offense all season. Those three teams all got to 20 points and averaged 23.7 points per game against the Tide, so Utah is going to score here. Utah stepped into BCS conference games just twice on the season and allowed 28 to Oregon State and 23 to a not-so offensive Michigan team, so I see the Tide getting their points in this one as well. This total is set too low, so I'm backing the OVER here.

The Buffalo Bulls are off what has to be one of their biggest victories in the history of the program, as they knocked off a previous unbeaten Ball State team. That has really held the line down for this one as there is no way this one would be under a seven-point line if the Bulls were off a different result, so it is loaded with value on UConn. If I gave you these numbers, tell me who won the game? Yardage 503-301. First downs 30-18. Time of possession 34:18 to 25:42. Total domination, but the team with all these advantages, lost this particular game by 18 points! That was the advantage Ball State had on Buffalo! Buffalo didn't beat Ball State, they beat themselves with five costly turnovers, and two that went the distance for 14 Buffalo points as they were about to score. Despite turning the ball over five times, they still had 12 more first downs and 200 more yards - hardly an eye-opening Buffalo performance, so that game opened eyes from the final score, but not their performance on the field. They will take on a UConn team with the No. 10 best defense in the country and on that has allowed under 20 ppg against teams much better than Buffalo. UConn also features a running back in Donald Brown who ran for 1,828 yards and 17 TDs against defenses much better than the No. 96 defense Buffalo brings here. The Huskies’ offense hasn't been great, but when they have faced poor defenses, of the ilk of Buffalo's, they scored 39 against Syracuse (No. 101), and 31 against Baylor (No. 88). This line is short by quite a few points, so I'll back the Huskies here.

This is not what Texas expected after beating Oklahoma, who is now playing in the BCS Championship game. It is hard to imagine this team will be as focused as they were in that game, although I'm sure they won't be laying down either. The Buckeyes struggled on offense most of the season and decided to go with freshman Tyrelle Pryor. Pryor is a double threat, but he got better as he gained game experience. Chris Wells also got his legs back after his injury and went over 100 yards in each of his last three games. It is no coincidence that the Buckeyes suddenly averaged 39 ppg in their last three. The defense has been great all season. In their last six games Ohio State gave up 10 ppg including 13 to Penn State and seven to Michigan State. Texas has shown a big offense all season, as did Penn State, but did not face a defense even close to what they will see here. Ohio State has become better on both sides of the ball while Texas hasn't faced a big-time defense, and their defense is suspect to laying this many points. I'll go with the Buckeyes here.

If you like scoring, you'll love this game. Tulsa put up 56 or more points in six games this season and gained 565 yards a game and averaged 47.4 ppg. Ball State put up 459.4 yards per game this year while scoring 36.6 ppg. Both teams convert third downs at over a 50% rate. Tulsa has already played to two totals higher than this on the season and those games saw 100 and 91 points scored. This game has the added offensive advantage to be played on turf, where Tulsa coach Todd Graham has had his teams play 20 of 28 to the OVER. When you put together teams that each out gain their opponent by 1.2 yards or more seven games deep into the season or more, and it is a non-conference game (don't know each other well), the OVER has gone 28-8. This one should be the highest scoring Bowl game of all. And Ball State has the advantage. They lost just one game all season while Tulsa dropped three. Ball State held their opponents to over 10 ppg less than did Tulsa. Ball State has not gotten enough respect in recent years as evidenced by a 23-11 overall ATS mark the past three seasons. Under Todd Graham Tulsa is just 2-9 ATS in road games after September. I like Ball State and the OVER here.

Results: 5-2

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our College football betting philosophy here.
• Take a look at our 2008 college football preview here.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA football Game-of-Week-Preview.
• View our college football picks here.
• Don't forget to read our sportsbook reviews college football here.
• Here we show our 2008 college football prior picks results.
• View our NCAA football ATS records here.
• Check out our updated Football odds.
• Updated today: football betting prediction.
• Read our blog football picks here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-31-2008
Houston's offense is one of the best in the country and as the season moved along, it got better. These teams met early on in what was to be a 31-28 Air Force victory. The Cougars finished that ga...

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-27-2008
This should be the top Bowl game prior to New Year's Day. Boise State is undefeated and TCU has just two losses that came to teams heading to BCS Bowls. The public has made their claim here, and i...

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-05-2008
At the beginning of the year it looked as though this East Carolina team was going to be special. They had back-to-back eye-opening upsets over Virginia Tech, who's playing in the ACC Championship...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-27-2008
The Gamecocks are probably an offensive skill player and a QB away from being a great team. They rank 11th in the country on defense, despite getting blown out by Florida, who is doing that to everyon...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-25-2008
Northern Illinois will enter this one with the No. 21 ranked defense in the country allowing just 18.3 ppg. The fact that Navy will provide a one-dimensional attack should allow the Huskies to stack t...