Ncaa Football Picks - January 05, 2008
We won with Kansas, boosting us to 56% in the bowls and 59% on our last 17 Bowl picks. We have a pick in the International Bowl below...
Today's NCAA Football Picks:
Game: Ball State vs. Rutgers (Saturday 1/05 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Ball State +10.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
West Virginia helped the Big East save a little face, as the conference is now 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in Bowls. It is taking on the look of a conference that is over-valued in the eyes of the odds-makers. Ball State has proven to be a thorn for some pretty good teams' sides this season. They went to Nebraska as a 24.5 point underdog and gave the Cornhuskers fits. They led until the last three minutes of the game, and gained over 600 yards. They played at Navy and came away with the win as a TD underdog. They went to Illinois and were within 4 points in the 4th quarter before losing by 11, but again covering the 13.5 spread. This team stepped out onto the road and played a lot of tough teams tough and we don't expect anything different here. They have a top 30 offense that has moved the ball through the air and on the ground. Nate Davis has been highly efficient, throwing for 27 TDs and only 6 INTs. They also have a solid punter in Chris Miller who averages 45.5 yards per punt. Rutgers slipped a bit from last year's high, and we are not too sure how motivated they will be facing a "no name" in a Bowl game after two years of frenzy. Rutgers has the #2 rated pass defense in the entire NCAA, and since so much of what Ball State does offensively involves throwing the ball, how do they have a chance? That #2 rating is misleading. The Big East is a running conference, and the rest of Rutgers schedule was not against any solid passing team. It isn't ironic that Rutgers gave up 32 ppg vs the only passing teams they faced in the top half of the NCAA. The rank of the rest? Maryland #79, Connecticut #91, Pittsburgh #104, West Virginia #114, Navy #120, Buffalo #63, Norfolk State (non-D1) and Army #97. These rankings are out of 120 teams. The only other top 60 team they faced was Syracuse, but the Orange passed all the time because they trailed in just about every game. Ball State will get their points vs Rutgers, and they have been very competitive against the top teams on their schedule, all at least the caliber of Rutgers. Rutgers was just 2-5 SU and ATS this season vs. winning teams. We don't think a team that finished the season 4-5 should be giving double-digits to a team that scores 32 points per game. This one is closer than it might look.
NCAA Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Football-Picks-January-03-2008
Virginia Tech is ranked #4 in the country in defense. It would appear that they have the strength on defense to stop this potent Kansas offense that has topped the 40 point mark in eight games. W...
NCAA-Football-Picks-January-02-2008
It's hard to overlook the fact that West Virginia was an upset loss away from playing in the BCS title game. Now suddenly they are better than a TD underdog to Oklahoma. Sure, their coach is gone ...
NCAA-Football-Picks-January-01-2008
This is a matchup of two teams that have gotten here by offense - both teams can move the ball. Tennessee comes in at 9-4, which sounds fairly impressive considering the rigors of the SEC. But this te...
NCAA-Football-Picks-December-29-2007
The Huskies had an unexpected but great season heading into the final game with a chance to secure a BCS bid, but were never in the game against West Virginia. The success of this team comes from a qu...
NCAA-Football-Picks-December-18-2007
The Bowl season gets underway with the Poinsettia Bowl as Navy faces off vs Utah. Utah has been on a roll after a slow start. Most of what they accomplished this season was on the defensive end. The U...
