College Football Bowl Prediction - January 03, 2008
We hit with West Virginia last night and tonight we have a selection in the Orange Bowl. We also share some thoughts on USC below...
Today's NCAA Football Picks:
Game: Kansas vs. Virginia Tech (Thursday 1/03 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Kansas +3 (-105) (risk 4 to win 3.8)
Virginia Tech is ranked #4 in the country in defense. It would appear that they have the strength on defense to stop this potent Kansas offense that has topped the 40 point mark in eight games. We are not convinced. Virginia Tech was a perfect fit this year playing in the ACC. There simply is not a top offense to be found in that conference this season. Boston College had the #33 ranked offense, but it was solely due to Matt Ryan. BC's was a completely one-dimensional offense that ranked near the bottom of the entire NCAA in rushing offense at #107. Clemson may have been the best offense that Virginia Tech saw this entire season, and the Tigers put up the most points against Virginia Tech in ACC games with 23. Clemson is only ranked #53. When Virginia Tech went against a team that could move the ball with both the run and the pass at LSU, they gave up 48! There are 120 teams in all and Virginia Tech spent eight games playing against teams with an offensive rank of 92! That is two-thirds of its schedule against horrible offenses. We showed you the results of the other four games above, and overall they played offenses ranked on average at #73, or in the bottom half of the NCAA. Kansas presents the biggest problem they will have see all season. The Jayhawks put up nearly 500 yards per game, and mix it up equally running and throwing. They suffered just one loss and that was to Missouri, and we all saw what they did to Arkansas. Kansas is similar to Virginia Tech in one regard - their defense is ranked #12 in the country. They too have had difficulty stopping top offenses, but have completely dominated average or poor ones. They played six games against top 40 offenses, allowing 23.5 ppg. They also played six games against the bottom half of the NCAA offenses, and allowed just 7.5 ppg. Virginia Tech has an offense rated #101, or near the bottom of the NCAA. The Kansas defense has allowed 10 total points in three games vs offenses ranked 100 or lower. Kansas is the better team. They have one less loss, and went 10-1 ATS (best in the country) while Tech went just 7-5 ATS. So we have a team in Virginia Tech that is ranked 101 on offense, playing a team that allows just a FG per game against similar teams, and a team in Virginia Tech that has a highly regarded defense, but wasn't nearly as successful against complete and balanced offenses. Wrong team favored, Kansas wins!
NCAA Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:
NCAA-Football-Picks-January-02-2008
It's hard to overlook the fact that West Virginia was an upset loss away from playing in the BCS title game. Now suddenly they are better than a TD underdog to Oklahoma. Sure, their coach is gone ...
NCAA-Football-Picks-January-01-2008
This is a matchup of two teams that have gotten here by offense - both teams can move the ball. Tennessee comes in at 9-4, which sounds fairly impressive considering the rigors of the SEC. But this te...
NCAA-Football-Picks-December-29-2007
The Huskies had an unexpected but great season heading into the final game with a chance to secure a BCS bid, but were never in the game against West Virginia. The success of this team comes from a qu...
NCAA-Football-Picks-December-18-2007
The Bowl season gets underway with the Poinsettia Bowl as Navy faces off vs Utah. Utah has been on a roll after a slow start. Most of what they accomplished this season was on the defensive end. The U...
NCAA-Football-Picks-November-30-2007
This game is for all the marbles in the Sun Belt, with the winner moving on to the New orleans Bowl vs Memphis. Florida Atlantic comes in with valuable experience gained in games vs South Florida, Okl...
