Free Football Picks - January 02, 2010

After going 5-0 yesterday on the Bowl picks, we sit at 15-4 on the Bowl season including 3-0 on moneyline underdogs. Overall we are +43.8 units in the Bowl season ($4,380 for $100 players). For those of you with us this entire season you know it was a rough regular season, but as crazy as it sounds given where we started, we are now within 8 units of a profitable CFB season overall. And we still have a third of the Bowl season to go.

This newsletter contains six picks for the game on January 1 and 2. In a few days, we'll send the picks for the games from Jan 4-6 and separately we'll end with the National Championship.

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	37-17 last 54 picks	69%	+$5240
CFB	23-9 last 32 picks	72%	+$5540
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	69-54 last 123 picks	56%	+$3450
NBA	30-20 last 50 picks	60%	+$1920
NHL	185-112 last 297 picks	62%	+$16030
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$46040

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Northwestern vs. Auburn (Friday 1/01 11:00 AM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Northwestern +9 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Outback Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL. Northwestern closed the season strong by winning two of their last three games with two of those wins coming against nationally ranked teams. The Wildcats started slow at 2-2, but finished strong going 6-2 in their final eight game, improving steadily as the season progressed. The season got off to a roaring start for Auburn as they logged wins in each of their first five games, but the wheels fell off from there. They finished an un-Bowl-like 1-5 down the stretch against FBS teams, and were out-scored by 8 points per game in the process. A team that scored 41.4 ppg in their first five games finished the last six scoring 24 or less in five of them! The defense allowed at least 20 points in all of their last 11 games including 31 to a non-FBS team in Furman. On the road this season, the Tigers defense has been bad. They are 1-3 in road games, allowing 32 points per game. It will be difficult for a team that had much bigger Bowl aspirations, starting off 5-0 but having since fallen off dramatically on both sides of the ball, to cover a big number vs. an improving team that has knocked off top 25 teams. Northwestern is playing with confidence and is excited to be here, with the prospects of their first Bowl win since 1948 hanging in the balance.

Capitol One Bowl - Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL. This game has been billed as two top defenses battling for field position. It's supposed to be very low scoring. But, what you have to remember that a good defense very often leads to unexpected points, or good field position off opponent turnovers. And, these offenses are not slouches. Both of these teams scored 20+ points in 10 of their 12 games. LSU averaged 26 per game and Penn State 30 per game (36.5 on the road)! The Tigers have played OVER in each of their last four games vs. the Big-10, three of their last four overall this season, and they have also produced OVERs to a 15-7 mark after a straight up win. This vaunted Tigers defense also gave up 95 points in their last four games. That compared to the 96 they gave up in their first eight. Penn State has put up 31+ points in six of their last eight games. When playing an elite team (one that outscores opponents by 10+ points per game) the past two seasons, LSU is 8-1 to the OVER. This total is set too low.

Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA. The 96th edition of the Rose Bowl features Ohio State and Oregon. The Buckeyes enter here at 10-2 and are off of five straight wins to close out the season and this will be their 5th consecutive BCS Bowl appearance. These teams have shared the gridiron seven times, with the Buckeyes coming up roses in all seven. The Buckeyes are a run oriented team, but I expect them to surprise the Ducks here by opening up the offense as coach Tressel's recent quote may indicate: "I think we've got to be more efficient and I think we've got to strike when there's opportunities to strike. We had a couple chances in the last game where we could have hit a homerun and we didn't. We have to be able to hit homeruns when people decide they're going to put X amount of people in the box to stop your run." The Ducks have a well-balanced potent offense, but we have seen top defenses, notably Nebraska vs. Pac-10 Arizona completely dominate as the Wildcats were a shutout victim. The Ducks are also a run-first team, but will have trouble running against the Buckeyes’ stop unit. The Buckeyes' defense is awesome, allowing just 12.2 points per game this season (11.4 on the road). Contrast that to the Ducks who allow 28 per game on the road and 31.7 in their last three. Ohio State has flourished in big games as they are on a 7-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record (36-20 ATS vs. such teams in the Tressel era). They are also on an amazing 22-5 ATS run in their last 27 on grass. This game looks pretty even to me, but the one caveat I see that favors the Buckeyes is that they have had a long time to work on opening up the offense as teams stack the box to stop the run. I can see Oregon getting burned once to give the Buckeyes the advantage. This is actually a big game for the Bukeyes who are making their first Rose Bowl appearance since 1997. Ohio State gets the call.

Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA. While the oddsmakers have given Oregon the edge in this game, I give it to the Buckeyes. They have a stifling defense and we have seen high-scoring teams stumble against such opponents already this Bowl season. Nebraska shut out an Arizona team that came in averaging 30 points per game. Houston averaged 43.9 points per game and got shut down by Air Force. Ohio State's recorded three shutouts this season and held three other opponents to 10 or fewer points! Ohio State has the more experienced coach and the more experienced team. The Ducks may be starry-eyed to start this big game. The Buckeyes are 9-2 straight-up the past two seasons vs. winning teams and they are 33-11 vs. superb rushing teams that average 4.8+ yards per carry. They are also 26-5 in their last 31 games with a total in the 50-56 range. I like Ohio State to win this game outright.

International Bowl - Rogers Centre - Toronto, Canada. NIU is looking to avoid their third straight Bowl loss. Meanwhile, S. Florida is awash in controversy surrounding the alleged physical abuse of a player by coach Jim Leavitt during halftime of a game this season. The Bulls really limped in here, having lost five of their final seven games, both SU and ATS. Let's face it, without Matt Grothe, this team just isn't that good. The Huskies lead the MAC in rushing this year, grinding out 202.4 yards per game behind junior Chad Spann (nearly 1000 yards and 20 touchdowns). They scored 30.7 points per game. I think the Huskies can hang here. I also like the OVER in this game. Northern Illinois scored over 30 points per game and S. Florida 26 per game. The Huskies went UNDER in just one of hteir final six games of the season while the Bulls went OVER in six of their final eight. I think this total is set too low.

Which of these two teams is more pumped to be here? The Arkansas Razorbacks, facing E. Carolina? Or E. Carolina getting to test their mettle against an SEC powerhouse? Yeah, the Pirates should be more "up" for this one. But can they hang? Yes they can! Arkansas is trying out a new offensive coordinator for this game (Paul Petrino left for Illinois) and that can't be good for continuity. Under Skip Holtz, this E. Carolina team is 22-10 ATS as an underdog. They ended the season on fire, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS. That included straight-up wins as an underdog vs. Tulsa and Houston. The Razorbacks are known for their high-flying offense but where has this offense been on the road this season? It seems they leave it at home. Arkansas averaged 46.7 points per game at home, but just 24.2 on the road - a dropoff of 23 points per game! So, it's no surprise a team that went 6-1 at home went just 1-4 on the road. Their defense was weak as well, allowing a ridiculous 8.1 yards per play (8.4 on the road). Under Holtz, the Pirates are 12-4 ATS vs. teams that allow 6+ yards per play. I like the Pirates plus the points here.

Results: 4-3

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our football against-the-spread standings here.
• View our updated guide to betting college football .
• Check out our updated Football odds and lines.
• Don't forget to read our 2009 NCAA football preview here.
• Don't forget to visit our college football game predictions.
• Check out our updated 2009 football prior picks.
• View college football picks here.
• Hop over to our blog college football picks here.
• Take a look at our sports betting college football here.
• Take a look at our Football Game-of-Week Analysis here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-28-2009
Independence Bowl - Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA. The Texas A&M Aggies have made great strides, especially on offense. In their season finale, they hung 39 on #2 Texas, who hadn't all...

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-26-2009
New Mexico Bowl - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM. Fresno State will be making their 10th Bowl appearance in the last 11 years, and their second straight trip to the New Mexico Bowl. They lost to...

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-10-2009
This is one of the greatest rivalries in all of sports, entering its 110th edition. Army has more at stake here than beating their arch-rival. A win makes them Bowl eligible and Temple would await the...

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-03-2009
Dan LeFevour is the MAC's all-0time leader in passing yards and he is the main reason the Chippewas are double-digit favorites here. His team scored 34.2 points per game this season and Ohio score...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-26-2009
Central Michigan has locked up the MAC West at 7-0 and will be likely playing 7-0 Temple for the MAC Title. The Huskies have had a good year at 7-4, and an eighth win could be enticing to Bowl Committ...