Free Ncaa Football Picks - January 01, 2009

Our second set of Bowl picks contains nine picks with three 5-unit plays...

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Air Force vs. Houston (Wednesday 12/31 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Air Force +4 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 66 -110

Houston's offense is one of the best in the country and as the season moved along, it got better. These teams met early on in what was to be a 31-28 Air Force victory. The Cougars finished that game, their third of the season (less Div-2 game) averaging 30 ppg. It was after that game that this offense exploded to another level as they went on to score 40+ in eight of their last nine. Those games saw the Cougars average 41 ppg. The problem for Houston wasn't on offense but rather on the defensive side of the ball. They gave up points at the rate of 33.7 ppg covering 11 games against FBC teams. Air Force did not allow but four teams to score 30+ on them all season, but the teams that did were the teams on their schedule that had good offenses (Utah, TCU and BYU). Those three teams averaged 37.3 points and 475 yards per game against the Falcons. Each of these teams completed their season at 7-4 to the OVER. This one looks to be a shootout, so the OVER gets the call. I also like Air Force a lot here. In the first meeting, as mentioned, the Academy beat Houston 31-28. But, they were up 31-7 mid-way through the third quarter. So it wasn't that close. Houston's offense is formidable but you don't win Bowl games with a defense this bad. In Houston's last three games, they allowed 519 yards and 41 points per game to their opponents. Getting points against a team like that is a valuable thing and I'll do so. Take the Falcons and the OVER here.

The Panthers opened the season in disappointment when they fell at home to Bowling Green. It set perceptions, but it was probably their worst game of the year. There is no doubt which team played the tougher schedule here as the Panthers schedule included nine games against Bowl teams. Virtually every week they faced a steep challenge. They completed those nine with a 7-2 record, falling only to a red-hot Rutgers team and a Cincinnati team bound for the Orange Bowl. The offense was carried by one of the top backs in the country in LeSean McCoy, who rushed for 1,400 yards on the season. Pitt's defense held strong as they ranked in the top 25% in the country, in spite of going up against teams heading for postseason play almost every week. Oregon State started in similar disappointing fashion dropping their opener to Stanford and then getting crushed by Penn State 45-14. They had their moment in the sun when they did the unthinkable and beat USC, but ended on a big downer by dropping a game to Oregon 65-38. The Beavers beat the teams at the bottom of the Pac-10 in Washington and Washington State. This makes their numbers look better than they are as overall the Pac-10 had a down year. The Beavers had designs on the Rose Bowl, and this may be a disappointing spot for them off their big season finale loss. For the Pittsburgh seniors and team in general, this is their first Bowl they will have played in. That should provide a motivational edge. I'll take the points and the Panthers in this one.

The Jayhawks had high hopes bringing back a lot of the key pieces from a 12-1 team a year ago. That team however never had to play Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma .So although they were a very good team, their schedule made that good team look better. This season they had to play all of those teams and went 0-3. They not only went 0-3, but they were out-scored by a count of 59-143. They simply weren't competitive. The Jayhawks' offense was very good early this season. The defense brought back eight players from a year ago and started strong the first half of the season as they allowed just 18 points per game in their first six. From that point on they couldn't stop anyone as all six of their remaining opponents outscored that 18 ppg average. The points allowed over the last six games were a discouraging 41 ppg! The Gophers had a big start going 7-1, but fell apart over the last month of the season and were a no-show in their season finale against Iowa dropping the game 55-0. Outside of that one horrible game, the Gophers were highly competitive against some of the better teams. They lost to Ohio State on the road by just 13 and on the road against Wisconsin by just three. It is hard to back a team laying more than a TD when they have given up 41 ppg in their last six games - such as the Jayhawks. There is some further evidence to back that up as the Jayhawks have gone 1-14 ATS after giving up 31 or more points in three-straight games. I'll take the Gophers and the bundle of points in this one.

The Gamecocks' defense put up some impressive numbers on their way to a No. 11 defensive ranking among the 120 NCAAF teams this season. A closer look however reveals that outside of a big defensive effort against Georgia, those numbers were padded by some games vs. anemic offensive teams. They opened the season with a shutout of North Carolina State, who at the beginning of the season scored 0, 9 and 10 points against BCS conference teams before the team finally found themselves. South Carolina allowed 13 each to both Wofford and UAB. They also allowed just six points to a Tennessee offense that ranked just No. 116. And, they gave up 17 points to a Kentucky team ranked No. 106. Against the other six games against reasonably good or good offenses, the Gamecocks allowed 30 ppg. In their last three on the regular season they allowed 36 ppg. The Hawkeyes' defense was pretty solid all season, but the biggest change from last season came on the offensive side of the ball, where they averaged 34.7 ppg in their last six games including 39 ppg against teams going to Bowls. The Gamecocks played four of five to the OVER against teams with winning records in their last five games. The Hawkeyes were 4-1-1 OVER in their last six. I like this one to go OVER the posted total.

It is hard to believe with the success that Penn State has had, that this will be their first Rose Bowl appearance since 1994-95. Coach Paterno has been a mastermind preparing his team for Bowl games. The Nittany Lions are 9-2 in their last 11 Bowl appearances, out-scoring opponents by 125 points in the process (11.4 per game). Paterno has only lost five out of 34 Bowl games by more than a TD. This year he has a solid team on both sides of the ball and were one point away from the National Championship game and an undefeated season as their only blemish was a one-point loss to Iowa. The Lions have put up 45 points or more in seven of their games and have an explosive offense. But at the same time they held 10 opponents to 18 or less. The Trojans are a very good team, but looking at the schedule, the fact that they were at least a 21-point favorite in nine of 12 games shows that there were few challenges. The Trojans averaged a line of -26.2 points per game and were never a favorite of less than 10.5 the entire season. That usually means the defense and the offense are a bit overrated, because the numbers came from a lot of empty games. Don't get me wrong. This is a very good USC team. But I question their motivation here, and also their ability to play if someone gives them a game. When they got behind at Oregon State they simply didn't respond. They got to within seven points and the nation’s leading defense cracked and allowed Oregon State to put the game away with another score. I like the points here. The fact that USC has the best defense in the country may be true, but not against teams like Penn State and they will get their share here. The Trojans have played their last four Bowl games with similar defenses, and all four games went OVER. I expect this one to do the same. I'm going Penn State and the OVER in this one.

Virginia Tech struggled to find continuity on offense this season, but where they seemed to thrive was in their biggest games against the top defenses. They scored 30 points against Boston College's sixth-ranked defense in the ACC Championship and they put up 23 against BC in their regular season matchup. They were able to score 20 against a Georgia Tech stop unit that ranks #23. They reached 20 points against the #13 ranked Seminoles as well. It was a difficult schedule that saw the Hokies play week-in and week-out against Bowl teams as nine on their schedule have advanced to Bowl games. That schedule has prepared them well for this big game. Cincinnati's defense gets good marks for the season, but in their six games against Bowl teams they allowed 25.7 ppg. In what is expected to be a close game, the Frank Beamer "special teams advantage" may very well come into play. I like the tested Hokies here vs. a team that has had too many offensive question marks all season. In addition, this total has been set much lower than my expectation. Take Virginia Tech and the OVER.

Results: 2-7

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Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-27-2008
This should be the top Bowl game prior to New Year's Day. Boise State is undefeated and TCU has just two losses that came to teams heading to BCS Bowls. The public has made their claim here, and i...

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-05-2008
At the beginning of the year it looked as though this East Carolina team was going to be special. They had back-to-back eye-opening upsets over Virginia Tech, who's playing in the ACC Championship...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-27-2008
The Gamecocks are probably an offensive skill player and a QB away from being a great team. They rank 11th in the country on defense, despite getting blown out by Florida, who is doing that to everyon...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-25-2008
Northern Illinois will enter this one with the No. 21 ranked defense in the country allowing just 18.3 ppg. The fact that Navy will provide a one-dimensional attack should allow the Huskies to stack t...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-20-2008
Buffalo may be better than even their 6-4 record would indicate. Their four losses have come to Missouri, Pittsburgh, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. They have yet to lose to a team from the MA...