Football Picks Free - January 01, 2008

Both our first and second set of Bowl picks have won and we are now 60% on the Bowl season. We have seven New Year's Day Bowl picks for you below. Our final set will come out later in the week. Good luck to you!

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Wisconsin vs. Tennessee (Tuesday 1/01 11:00 AM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Wisconsin +2 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

This is a matchup of two teams that have gotten here by offense - both teams can move the ball. Tennessee comes in at 9-4, which sounds fairly impressive considering the rigors of the SEC. But this team is just six points away from not being in a bowl game at all! They needed OT to win against Kentucky and South Carolina, and had a come-from-behind one-point win over Vanderbilt. If those three games went against them they would be 6-7. When they lose, they lose big! Their four losses were by a combined margin of 84 points, so they have certainly thrown up some stinkers. Wisconsin comes in with a 9-3 mark. They will get P.J. Hill back for this game and his 1000+ yards and his five per carry will aid an already potent offense. Zach Brown has also rushed for about five yards per carry in his absence, so they now have two quality RBs to utilize. Wisconsin had a horrible start. They opened by covering their game against Washington State, but then proceeded to go until October 20 before covering another. They finished just 4-7 ATS. This is a team improving, and with so much time to heal injuries and get better, they will be a tough team for Tennessee to beat. Teams that had a losing ATS mark during the season in a major bowl (basically New Year's Day and after) are 18-8 ATS over teams with winning ATS records. The total here is hovering close to 60 points and Tennessee is 10-33 ATS when they allow 28 or more points including 1-3 this year, while Wisconsin is 61-21 ATS when they score 28 or more including 4-2 this year. This is the kind of game that gives the edge to Wisconsin, so we will play the dog here.

The high-powered Texas Tech offense will go up against one of the best Virigina teams ever. This is only the fourth time Virginia has won nine games. Granted, six of their wins came by under a touchdown. But their defense is for real. They shut out Miami in the Orange Bowl 48-0 and held six opponents this season to 17 points or less. They haven't had a bad game, having allowed 24+ points just twice all season and they rank 13th in the country overall in scoring defense. Texas Tech is all about offense, scoring 41.7 ppg. But, their offensive production fell off a bit as the season came to a close and they averaged just 35 ppg on grass fields. Their ppg average is inflated thanks to games against NW Louisiana (scored 75), Rice (59) and SMU (49). Against Bowl teams (Texas A&M, Missouri, Colorado and Texas), the Red Raiders averaged just 28.5 ppg! And those four teams did not have a defense equal to Virginia's. We like the Cavaliers to keep Texas Tech down enough to keep this one UNDER the total.

Florida has put up 45+ points in eight different games this season and has the Heisman Trophy winner calling signals. It's hard to believe a team like this is not in the National Championship game. The problem is they lost their three biggest games of the year to Auburn, LSU and Georgia. In those three games the Gators averaged just 23.7 ppg. This is the last hurrah for Henne and Hart, and the motivation is quite clear. They did not beat Ohio State in their four years, nor have they won a bowl game, and this game is their last chance to win a big one. This will be a much different Michigan team Florida will see, now that they have had 10 weeks to get healthy. This team was ranked No. 2 in the preseason for one reason - they have a ton of raw talent. Florida must get past the Heisman jinx as well, as the team with the Heisman Trophy winner has been horrible ATS in bowl games. This is too many points to a team that is just as talented as Florida. With the Gators struggling offensively vs. top-level talent, we look for Florida to stay close and for the game to come in UNDER the total.

USC was penciled into the National Championship game long before the season started, so how are they going to be motivated against an opponent that has been given no national recognition for years? You would have to think that if the Trojans made it to the championship game, they would be favored over any team. That's where the problem lies. This team is the most talented in the nation, but at the same time they seemed to take every game as if it was theirs before the first second clicked off the clock. In a dissapointing bowl game against a less-than-expected opponent, why would anyone expect their "A" game? Well, every news columnist, sportswriter, and so-called expert is calling for a USC blowout. We don't think so. This is the biggest game in a long time for Illinois. This is a good young, motivated, hungry and most of all, talented team. Everyone forgets they opened with Missouri, out gained them in total yards, and lost by only six points despite a -3 turnover margin! They have played tough against every top team on their schedule and went to Columbus and did the unthinkable. They not only beat the Buckeyes, but out gained them as well. Illinois also own wins over Wisconsin and Penn State. The fact is that they may not have the name of a team that is in the BCS mix year-in and year-out, but they belong. They are tough on both sides of the ball and can run on anyone. USC lost to lowly Stanford, so when they aren't motivated or on their "A" game they can be very ordinary. Illinois has not lost by this many points to anyone this season and won't here either.

Well here we go again as another non-BCS school has won its way into a BCS Bowl game. Last year Boise State proved that these teams may not be from a top conference, but the best of them can play with anyone. Most people look at the schedules and say they win because they don't play anyone, which is true in part. But it doesn't mean they can't play, and that is often the mistake made. Hawaii had its toughest games all at the end when they faced Boise State, Washington, Fresno State and Nevada. Three of these teams are in Bowl games and Hawaii out-gained them by over two yards per play! Most view Hawaii as strictly an offensive team, but their defense actually has positive yards-per-play numbers against the good offensive teams they have played. Who is likely to be more motivated for this one? Georgia is in a BCS Bowl game, but not against Ohio State, USC, or a national power. Georgia is playing a game they are supposed to win, but doesn't give them the emotional buzz. For Hawaii, like Utah and Boise State before them, it is a chance in a lifetime to win against a big time school. The Rainbows have one of the best QBs in the nation, and they are the lone unbeaten team in the nation and are facing a team that didn't even win their division. The fact is that teams with one loss or less getting 7+ points have delivered the cash in 22 of 28 bowl games! That is 79% of the time. We look for a superb Hawaii team to have a chance to get the outright win here, but we will take the safety net of the huge pointspread. Hawaii won't have as much offensive success as they are used to against a Georgia team that keps foes to 21 ppg this season. Under Mark Richt, Georgia is 60% to the UNDER as a favorite. This total is set way too high and we like the UNDER here as well.

Results: 2-4

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Check out college football spreads here.
• Read our 2007 NCAA football predictions here.
• Hop over to our ncaa football expert pick here.
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• Don't forget to read our NCAA football ATS records here.
• View our college football Game Preview here.
• Check out NCAA football betting philosophy here.
• Hop over to our college football previous picks here.
• View our updated 2007 football prior picks results.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-29-2007
The Huskies had an unexpected but great season heading into the final game with a chance to secure a BCS bid, but were never in the game against West Virginia. The success of this team comes from a qu...

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-18-2007
The Bowl season gets underway with the Poinsettia Bowl as Navy faces off vs Utah. Utah has been on a roll after a slow start. Most of what they accomplished this season was on the defensive end. The U...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-30-2007
This game is for all the marbles in the Sun Belt, with the winner moving on to the New orleans Bowl vs Memphis. Florida Atlantic comes in with valuable experience gained in games vs South Florida, Okl...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-29-2007
This has been a very disappointing season for Louisville. What was thought to be National Champion contender has fallen far below expectations. Rutgers is probably right where they should be, although...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-23-2007
It's been over a decade and a half since the Virginia Cavaliers mattered in College Football. They now host a very important game against their hated cross-state rival for a trip to the ACC title ...