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After our awful start we have picked up steam winning six of the last seven picks including two 5-units and a 4-unit. We look to get back on the plus side overall with the January 1 picks.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Penn State vs. Tennessee (Monday 1/01 11:00 AM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Penn State +4
Pick: 2 units on OVER 41

9-3 Tennessee faces 8-4 Penn St in the Outback Bowl. We're sure Tennessee had higher Bowl expectations than this before the year started, but a tough SEC and a few bad breaks and here they are. Joe Paterno, after a great season last year, did not have the same expectations this season. The Lions find themselves in a decent Bowl regardless. Tennessee built its season on an offense that averaged over 30ppg, while Penn State was more productive on the defensive side of the ball. We like the team that is likely to be more satisfied with the Bowl they are playing in, and we also like the fact that Tennessee sits at 6-15 ATS in their last 21 as a favorite. This game should also go over the total as Penn State allowed 28 to Ohio State and 41 to Notre Dame. We don't expect this Tennessee team to score those kinds of numbers, but enough to put this game over a rather low total. This game should come down to a FG, and we like both the OVER and the dog in this battle.

Here we have Auburn again coming up a bit short in a bid to reach the National Championship game. The 10-2 Tigers may be a bit disappointed to be playing here. Last year this team lost just two games as well and didn't show up for their Bowl game and lost outright as a 10 point favorite. Two years ago they ran the table, and were snubbed for the National Championship game, squeaking by Virginia Tech in their Bowl game without the ATS win. It has been a while since Nebraska (9-4) has been close to a National Championship, but they have been making strides to get back to the elite status they once held. This is a team that can score some points averaging 32 ppg and we expect this one to fly over the total. Auburn has been a disappointing 1-6 ATS as a favorite, and has shown with little to play for, they don't seem to bring their "A" game. We look for the more motivated team to win and for this to be a rather high scoring game as well.

This was supposed to be the year for West Virginia with a solid defense and two of the most potent offensive weapons in college football in Slayton, and Pat White. The hopes dimmed with a loss to Louisville late in the season, but a Rutgers win vs. Louisville kept the dream alive. Then a loss to S. Florida put an end to any hope at all. Georgia Tech will play this game without QB Reggie Ball, but some may say he was the problem to begin with. There has been an over-reaction as Tech will now enter a double digit underdog. It will be hard for W. Virginia to be in peak form for this one as they had higher aspirations, and we often have seen teams rise above adversity when a major contributing player like Reggie Ball is out. The problem for W. Virginia has been a defense that was rock solid in its first 7 games, giving up more than 17 points just once, suddenly gave up an average of 31.6 ppg in its last five. In those games, no team scored less than 24 against the Mountaineers. This just looks like a team that either peaked too early in the season, or with the loss to Louisville, lost its dream, and began to decline emotionally. We will take the load of points here.

This will be yet another battle between the SEC and Big 10, as once beaten Wisconsin faces off with 10-3 Arkansas. Wisconsin really caught a break this year, as they avoided a game with Ohio State, and played any tough games they had in the Big 10 at home with the exception of Michigan. And guess what? That's where their loss came by 14 points. It would not be right to say they don't deserve to be here, because they had a great year. The odds-makers may be adding some insight, as despite a single loss season, they are installed as the underdog in this one. It speaks volumes of the soft nature of their schedule. Arkansas, after getting drubbed by USC in their 1st game, became a team that showed they could play with anyone. They lost hard fought games with both LSU, and Florida and won easily at Auburn 27-10. They also posted wins on the road at Alabama and SC. The offense which was a question mark produced 27 vs. Auburn, 26 vs. LSU and 28 vs. Florida. It seemed to be peaking at the end of the season. Wisconsin has gone over 30 points 7 times, so we expect this game to be offensive minded and go OVER as well. We will take the favored Razorbacks in this one, simply because they are the better team.

Here we have two teams having to settle for second best. Michigan saw its National title hopes fall apart in a well played game at Ohio State while USC sitting in the catbird seat, couldn't get it done vs UCLA. What is left are two very good teams on both sides of the ball, but without the pot of gold they were expecting to be chasing after New year's Day. These games tend to take on a wide open approach, and with two teams that can move the ball down the field quickly, we like the OVER in this one. Michigan, and USC both average over 30 points a game and Michigan has gone over the total in 7 of their last 8 Bowl games. USC has gone over the total in 5 of their last 6 after scoring 20 points or less. The conservative nature that may have been their approach if this were a National Championship game will be abandoned for a wide open nothing to lose philosophy, and that means points.

Boise State will once again get a chance to legitimize an undefeated 12-0 season when they take on the 11-2 Sooners of Oklahoma. It is always hard to guage this Broncos team as they rip through their over-matched conference, score points by the boatloads, and always end up with close to a perfect season. For that reason, we will lay off the side here, but we do see signals that this should be a lower scoring game than most think. The past has seen Boise State line up with UTEP, Iowa State, Louisville, or teams that are not noted for their play on the defensive side of the ball. That won't be the case vs. Oklahoma who can and will play defense against this team. What we have seen, in the few glimpses that there have been, is the Broncos struggle against a solid defense. Last year they went to Georgia and managed just 13 points against a similar type defense that they will see here. They  gotjust 7 at Fresno State as well. The fact that they have played 6-0 UNDER in last 6 non-conference games, and have also played 14 of 17 UNDERS vs. teams with a winning record adds to our taste for the under here. Oklahoma has played under in 8 of their last 9, and 6 of their last 7 Bowl games have gone UNDER the total as well. Under is the play here.