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Ncaa Bowl Predictions - December 31, 2010We delivered a small win in the second set of Bowl games, but still have some ground to make up. We roll with four picks for the December 30-31 games. January 1 picks will be sent out Saturday morning.
 Today's NCAA Football Picks: Syracuse used to be a Bowl mainstay but the program had recently done a belly-flop. Now the Orangemen appear to be heading back into a relevant program. The Cuse used a #5 ranked defense to supply most of their wins this season as their offense struggled all season, most notably down the stretch. The Cuse offense has been pathetic as they managed 14 or less points in five of their 12 games. Their offense is ranked #106 in the nation. Over the last two games they tallied a grand total of 13 points, and over the last three, just 26. That is under 9 points per game, so no matter how good the defense is, they are very likely to struggle here. Not many teams make it to a Bowl game scoring 7 or less in their previous two games, and the ones that have cover the pointspread just 30% of the time. Kansas State has a big weapon in Daniel Thomas who rushed for just shy of 1,500 yards on the season (9th in the nation). The Wildcats have gone 12-5 ATS in the game following a 200+ rushing yards performance. They are also 5-1 ATS after scoring 40+ in their last game. My computer matchup likes Kansas State to win here and I agree. Play the Wildcats.Game: South Florida vs. Clemson (Friday 12/31 12:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on South Florida +5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) It has been a disappointing year for the Tigers. They had aspirations of winning the ACC Championship, but fell light years short and barely qualified for a Bowl at 6-6. When you consider three of their wins came over Presbyterian, Wake Forest and North Texas, the Tigers really struggled. QB Kyle Parker just never got things going and the Tigers’ running game featured no back with more than 730 rushing yards, so there simply were no playmakers to put this team over the top. The Tigers offense suffered as the competition level rose. They scored 14 or fewer points in four of their last five games. The Bulls went 4-4 in the Big East, and did not lose to anyone in conference play by more than 7 except to West Virginia on the road. They did show their capability when they went down to Miami and beat the Hurricanes on their own field, a team the Tigers lost to at home by 9 points. The Bulls have come out ready after scoring less than 20 in their previous game, having gone 22-10 ATS in their following game. The Tigers have been bad over their last 16 games, going just 5-11 ATS and will have very little interest in this less-than-expected Bowl. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz is 26-13 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career. My computer matchup likes the Bulls to hang close here and I agree that they will cover the spread. Take the Bulls.Game: South Florida vs. Clemson (Friday 12/31 12:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on South Florida +190 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 3.8) One of the keys to Bowl games is motivation. The Clemson Tigers thought they could compete to win the ACC Championship. They subsequently ended the season at just 6-6 and barely qualifying for a Bowl game. They will be facing a foe that is good, but doesn't come in with any national prominence to get the juices flowing. South Florida lost a lot of pieces from a superb team a year ago, including their coach. Under Skip Holtz, this team matched their win total from last year and three of their losses were close (by a TD or less). Since this is the first year for their new coach, this team will be motivated to get him his first Bowl win. They have the team to do it against a Clemson team that has scored 14 or less in four of their last five. Clemson is just 1-6 straight-up on the road under head coach Dabo Swinney following an ATS loss. Skip Holtz coached teamsa are 10-4 straight-up following a loss to a conference rival. I like South Florida's chances at an outright win here.Game: Florida State at South Carolina (Friday 12/31 7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Florida State +3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) The Gamecocks had a shot at a BCS Bowl, but lost the SEC Championship game to Auburn. The Ole Ball Coach was humiliated in that game, 56-17. This Bowl is quite a comedown from a possible BCS Bowl, to playing here prior to New Year's Day. The Seminoles suffered the same fate, losing the ACC Championship in more competitive fashion to the Virginia Tech Hokies 44-33. Marcus Lattimore was behind only Cam Newton this season in yards as he racked up 1200 yards and 17 rushing TDs. But, I expect Florida State, with lots of prep time, to be ready for him. FSU QB Christian Ponder has been upgraded to probable for this game. It is never a good idea to go against Florida State in their Bowl game. They have compiled a 16-9-1 ATS record in the last 26 years, never missing a Bowl. Big or small, the Bowl game tradition at FSU is huge. They have not lost ATS in their last four Bowls posted as a dog. I won't buck the motivation of this tradition and success. My computer matchup predects a dead-even game here. I like Florida State plus the points. Results: 3-1 NCAA Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters: NCAA-Football-Picks-December-25-2010 NCAA-Football-Picks-December-15-2010 NCAA-Football-Picks-December-02-2010 NCAA-Football-Picks-November-25-2010 NCAA-Football-Picks-November-18-2010 |
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