Winning Football Picks - December 31, 2009

We've started off on fire in the Bowls going 7-2 thus far for +16.2 units. In the month of December across all sports, we are 191-120 (61%) for +187 units.

We look to keep our run rolling with ten picks for the Bowl games from Dec 28 - 31 including three 5-unit plays. The next set of picks for the New Year's games will be sent on Friday morning.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	37-17 last 54 picks	69%	+$5240
CFB	11-4 last 15 picks	73%	+$2100
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	47-38 last 85 picks	55%	+$1980
NBA	24-15 last 39 picks	62%	+$2000
NHL	176-98 last 274 picks	64%	+$18830
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$44010

 

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Texas A & M vs. Georgia (Monday 12/28 5:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 66.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Independence Bowl - Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA. The Texas A&M Aggies have made great strides, especially on offense. In their season finale, they hung 39 on #2 Texas, who hadn't allowed more than 24 points to any team in the country. The Aggies are balanced and will present problems for the Bulldogs who allowed 31 points per game on the road this season and 40+ in three games. The Georgia offense showed signs of life late, scoring 31.5 points per game in the last four. That should spell success for the Bulldogs offense against an Aggies defense that allowed a ridiculous 47.8 points per game in five road games this season. As an underdog the past two seasons under Mike Sherman, Texas A&M is 11-2 OVER. This one should feature scoring at will and I like it to go OVER the total.

EagleBank Bowl - RFK Stadium - Washington, DC. This is Temple's first Bowl game in 30 years. They should be pumped, but will it be enough vs. UCLA? I don't think so. The crows should predominately side with the Bruins and they should be come ready to play as UCLA hasn't played in a Bowl since 2007. UCLA seemed to have limped in here and they sport a very pedestrian 6-6 record. But, that's a good thing. Bowl teams with a straight-up record of .560 or worse facing a team with a better record have hit at an amazing 82% ATS rate the past five years including 1-0 thus far this season (Wyoming). UCLA had a poor middle-of-the year losing five straight during October. But they bracketed that with a 3-0 start and a 3-1 finish to the year. They went 2-5 as an underdog but against teams they were supposed to beat, they showed up, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as a favorite. I think they show up here and get the win and cover.

Champs Sports Bowl - Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL. The Hurricanes get to play in their home state here. The Hurricanes’ program is back on the rise and this will be an important game to get to 10 wins as it goes a long way towards recruiting and they know it. The Badgers had a successful season by the record, going 9-3. But looking over the wins, it is hard to single out a single big win they had all season. Their two biggest games vs. Iowa and Ohio State saw them unable to move the ball, resulting in losses both SU and ATS. They have had no games this season vs. a big passing attack and they will not really be able to react to Jacoby Harris and the Miami offense here. When they faced the only other Big-10 team that passes well, they allowed 30 points. Miami's defense struggled early on allowing 34 to Florida State, 31 to Virginia Tech and 40 to Clemson. But, in their final five games, they allowed an average of 20.6 per game. Mixed in there was 33 to North Carolina, but the defense allowed just 19 in that game. Their defense held opponents to 3.5 yards per carry and 118 rushing yards per game. If Wisconsin can't run, they run into trouble. Under Bret Bielema, the Badgers are just 2-10 ATS vs. teams that allow under 120 rushing yards per game. I like Miami here.

Humanitarian Bowl - Bronco Stadium - Boise, ID. Going back to the beginning of the season, the Idaho Vandals are the last team anyone thought would be playing in a Bowl game. They surprised everyone and will be playing in what will be a close to a home game for their reward. The Falcons stumbled to a 1-4 record, but finished winning six of their last seven to get here. There will be a lot of Tyler Sheehan to Freddie Barnes hook-ups in this one. Barnes has an amazing 138 receptions, 1,551 receiving yards and has caught 16 for TDs. The Vandals have a big-time passing attack that has produced over 9.5 yards per attempt, and the Falcons will be on the run all day. Idaho features three receivers all averaging 16.7 yards per catch or better. On defense, the Vandals haven't been able to stop anyone, as they allowed 39.5 per game on the road and 48.7 per game in their last three. Idaho is 7-0 OVER in their last seven road games vs. winning teams. The past two seasons they are 6-0 OVER when facing a passing defense that can't stop them (those that allow 58%+ completions). And, they are 10-1 OVER in their last eleven road games vs. teams that complete 58%+ of their passes. I see a lot of up and down the field in this game in what might be the highest scoring Bowl game of the season. I'm taking the OVER here.

Holiday Bowl - Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA. Behind the best player in the country, Ndamukong Suh, the Cornhuskers have a good defense - something the Arizona Wildcats have not seen this season. How good is this defense? Nebraska held Oklahoma and Texas to a combined 16 points! Texas is playing in the National Championship game on January 7 thanks to an offense that put up 432 yards and 41 points per game, but they almost got bumped by this Cornhuskers team that held the Longhorn's to just 202 total yards. Arizona is going to have trouble scoring anything in this one against the Huskers defense that allowed 11.2 points per game. The Cats faced a No. 11 ranked Iowa defense earlier this season and scored only 3 legitimate points in the game. They had an INT for a TD and a late courtesy TD with less than two minutes to play down 27-10. They managed just eight first downs the entire game! Nebraska will use field position to score points as FG kicker Alex Henry has already made good on 20 this season and has range in excess of 50 yards. The Wildcats, in the role of a favorite, have been “Mildcats” as they are just 14-33 ATS in their last 47, and the Huskers have come up big as a dog with a 4-0 ATS mark. Nebraska was 4-2 on the road this season (one foot away from 5-1) and I think they should be the favored team. I like Corn here.

Armed Forces Bowl - Amon Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX. These two teams met in this same Bowl last season with Houston winning by 6 points. Now it's Air Force's turn. What a matchup! We get the #1 passing offense in Houston (447 yards per game) vs. the nation's top pass defense in Air Force (149 yards allowed per game). The difference here is on the other side of the ball. While Air Force comes in with a superb rushing attack ranked #4 in the country (274 yards per game), Houston's defense is terrible. They rank 112th in the nation in rushing yards, allowing 213 per game! So, expect the Falcons to control the clock and keep the high-powered Houston offense in check. The Cougars were high-flying early in the season, but they gave up 58 points to UTEP in a loss, then 37 to Central Florida in a loss and lost last game to E. Carolina, giving up 38 points. Sense a theme? Houston's defense is bad and on the road this season, this team was 4-3, giving up 36.1 per game. Under Troy Calhoun, the Academy is 22-12 ATS and I like them to get it done here.

Houston went 6-0 at home this season but they are just 4-3 on the road, allowing 36.1 points per game. They own a horrible run defense and so will struggle to slow down the Air Force running game which is 4th best in the nation. Houston's strength, of course, is their passing game. But, Air Force has the nation's best pass defense. So, I think Air Force has an excellent chance to win this game outright. At these nice odds, I'll back them to win outright.

Sun Bowl - Sun Bowl Stadium - El Paso, TX. Sam Bradford's early exit to the season crushed bigger hopes for Oklahoma this season. Instead of playing in a big Bowl game, they are relegated to the Sun Bowl. The Sooners face the Heisman runner up in Toby Gerhart here and he has been spectacular this season (1736 yards, 26 TDs - both tops in the nation). The Sooners defense is ranked 7th overall but the stats are padded thanks to shutouts pitched vs. lowly Idaho State and Tulsa and a 7 point performance vs. Baylor. Miami was able to put up 21 vs. the Sooners, Kansas State 30 and Texas Tech 41. The Cardinal scored 36.2 per game this season, so don't expect Oklahoma to automatically hold them down. The Cardinal posted impressive wins this season vs. Arizona State (won by 19), Oregon (won by 9 and USC (won by 24). They can certainly hang here, especially against a Bradford-less Sooners team that went 1-5 on the road this season, averaging 16.2 points per game. The last two seasons Stanford is a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. teamst hat outscored their opponents by 10+ points per game. I like Stanford plus the generous points.

Texas Bowl - Reliant Stadium - Houston, TX. This is a very difficult spot for the Tigers. They have a lot of young players and will be facing a Military Academy for the first time in the four years of this senior class. Regardless of how much time you have to prepare for the triple option, it never is the same as facing it and seeing it for the first time live. Navy will be absolutely electrified to be playing in Texas. The big reason is that Navy recruits the heaviest in Texas. They have over 20 players on the roster from the state. What has that meant? Navy is 9-2 ATS in the state of Texas and it is a trip home for kids that don't get to spend much time with family and friends. The 11 games has shown a winning margin ATS of over 20 points per game. So, it's obvious that this team gets jacked up to play in Texas. This disciplined Navy team has won or covered four of their last five Bowl games. The one loss was last year vs. a team they played in the regular season, which had experience with the option. That isn't the case here. With this one in the Lone Star state, Navy will be hard to stop. Missouri's biggest weakness is their pass defense. While you wouldn't think that would matter much against Navy, it does. The Midshipmen thrive vs. such weak pass defenses as they are 15-5 ATS int heir last 20 road games vs. teams that allow 62%+ completions. I like Navy here.

Texas Bowl - Reliant Stadium - Houston, TX. This is a great spot for Navy as they couldn't have hoped for a better Bowl game to be in. Navy recruits heavily in the state of Texas, and they have over 20 roster players from Texas. They usually try to schedule a game every year in Texas and Navy really comes to play as these kids get few opportunities to see family and friends. They have gone 9-2 ATS in Texas, covering the spread by over 20 points per game on average, so you know they will be fired up. Missouri is not only in a tough spot because of the Texas situation, but because they have not seen the triple option. The last four Bowl games Navy has played vs. teams that have not seen it, they have gotten the money in all of them. Navy is 7-4 straight-up the past two seasons vs. winning opponents while Missouri is 4-7 vs. such teams. The Midshipmen are also 13-5 straight-up following an ATS loss (this is a disciplined team that tends to follow an under-performance with a solid showing). Mizzou is just 6-8 under Gary Pinkel when playing with extra rest. I'm looking for the outright Navy win in this game.

Results: 8-2

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Here we show our college football against-the-spread records.
• View our updated NCAA football betting philosophy.
• Here we show our NCAA football lines and odds.
• Don't forget to read our 2009 NCAA football preview here.
• Here we show our free college football weekly game picks.
• Updated today: 2009 NCAA football pick results.
• Hop over to our NCAA football prior picks here.
• Read our blog football here.
• Check out college football sportsbooks here.
• Take a look at our Football Game-of-Week-Preview here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-26-2009
New Mexico Bowl - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM. Fresno State will be making their 10th Bowl appearance in the last 11 years, and their second straight trip to the New Mexico Bowl. They lost to...

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-10-2009
This is one of the greatest rivalries in all of sports, entering its 110th edition. Army has more at stake here than beating their arch-rival. A win makes them Bowl eligible and Temple would await the...

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-03-2009
Dan LeFevour is the MAC's all-0time leader in passing yards and he is the main reason the Chippewas are double-digit favorites here. His team scored 34.2 points per game this season and Ohio score...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-26-2009
Central Michigan has locked up the MAC West at 7-0 and will be likely playing 7-0 Temple for the MAC Title. The Huskies have had a good year at 7-4, and an eighth win could be enticing to Bowl Committ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-19-2009
How bad is it in Colorado? Really bad. No one but the clueless Colorado AD has any confidence in Dan Hawkins anymore. His record speaks for himself and the Buffs simply can't compete in the Big 12...