Expert Football Picks - December 31, 2007

We hit 60% in the first round of bowl picks. We look forward to this second "round" with five picks for the games from December 29 -31. On January 1st in the morning, we'll have our next set of picks out. For now, check out our College Sports News and Notes below as well as our next five Bowl picks.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Wake Forest vs. Connecticut (Saturday 12/29 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Connecticut +2.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Huskies had an unexpected but great season heading into the final game with a chance to secure a BCS bid, but were never in the game against West Virginia. The success of this team comes from a quick, opportunistic defense. The Huskies held 10 of their 12 opponents to under 20 points, and in fact the average points allowed in those games was just 13! The Huskies faced four teams in the top 28 in offense, and another in the top 40 and still managed to hold three of those five to under 20. The one thing Connecticut has done well is manage the game. Under Tyler Lorenzen the Huskies offense had only five interceptions the entire season and never more than one in any game. The defensive secondary has been turning the opponent over all season as they have come up with 22 INTs, and seven games with multiple picks. These two teams are very similar, but if UCONN wins the battle of the turnovers, as they have all season, they will have a decided advantage. Another factor favoring the Huskies is the fact that UCONN has sold out the 15,000 tickets they were provided for this game, so it is certainly well represented and a very important game in the growth of this team. Wake Forest does not have many big wins this season unless you consider Florida State and Maryland big wins. Wake will have trouble moving the ball as their offense is ranked No. 99 in the country. Maybe many are hedging after watching UCONN lose to West Virginia by 45 points, but after a big loss like that just before the bowl game teams have covered 85% of the time. We will ride the Huskies in this one.

If Central Florida has proven one thing this year, it's that they can really beat up on bad defensive teams. There are 120 teams in NCAA Football. Central Florida played against these nine teams in terms of their overall defensive rank: SMU (No. 118), UTEP (No. 116), UAB (No. 115), Tulsa twice (No. 111), Marshall (No. 109), UL Lafayette (No. 105), Memphis (No. 101) and East Carolina (No. 99). That means of the 22 lowest-possible defensive teams, they played a schedule complete with nine of them! They proceeded to dominate offensively averaging 44 ppg. Well, surprise! Here comes Mississippi State with the No. 29 ranked defense. Central Florida played four games against teams with a defensive rank of No. 35 or better and proceeded to average 288 yards a game. That would put them at No. 116 offensively. The two teams they played that had a defensive rank in the 20s or less, like Mississippi State, held them to 235.5 yards a game which would be dead last in the NCAA! Mississippi State beat Auburn, Alabama and Kentucky. Take a look at Kentucky, a team that outscored Central Florida on the season, but did it against the SEC. Kentucky managed 14 points against Mississippi State on their own field, while being held to 319 yards. Kentucky put up an average of 500 yards a game at home including an average of 484 yards a game against Florida, Tennessee and LSU! Think Mississippi State can stop this Central Florida offense? We do! Wrong team favored in this one.

This one won't be like Boise State vs. Oklahoma last year. Fresno State has lost so many defensive starters this season between injuries and suspension that they really haven't been able to stop any team's running game at all. Unfortunately, that is what Georgia Tech does the best as they are superb at running the ball. Tech is averaging over 200 yards a game on the ground and nearly five yards per carry, while the post-defensive losses to this Fresno State team are yielding over six a carry. The top four ball carriers for Tech each average at least 5.2 ypc, and should be able to run all over Fresno State. Fresno State did go up against five Bowl teams this season with their only win coming against Nevada, who has already lost its Bowl game. Fresno could not stop any of these teams as they gave up 509 yards per game and 42.2 ppg! This defense is just too banged up to stop the powerful running game of Tech. Tech also has one of the best pass rushes in all of football averaging four sacks a game. They have held their opponent's rushing attacks to right around a half yard less than their season output. Tech should have control of this game from start to finish and come away with a double-digit win.

Get ready for a shootout! Oklahoma State is electric on both sides of the ball. They average close to 500 yards per game, but allow nearly 450. That is about 950 yards of offense in their games on average. Indiana is very similar as they have seen their games average close to 800 yards of offense per game. Neither one of these teams has shown the defensive capability to stop a strong offense all season; while both have shown they can score at will against that type of defense. This game could potentially be the highest-scoring bowl game of the season, and we will play the OVER in this one.

Auburn has not had the type of offense we have seen from them in recent years, but the defense has stepped up in a big way. They rank No. 7 in the country overall, and are good against both the run and the pass. This is a team that held Florida to 17 points, Arkansas to 7, Alabama to 10, and nine of twelve opponents on the season to 20 points or less. Clemson is another top-10 defense, as they come in ranked No. 8 in the country. They have held 10 of 12 opponents to 21 or less on the season and it is going to be a game of field position, as this is a battle of two top-ten defenses. Clemson has been the better offensive team, but they have also struggled against the better defenses. This could turn out to be the lowest scoring bowl game of them all, so we will play the UNDER here.

Results: 3-2

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our Football odds lines and spreads here.
• Hop over to our 2007 NCAA football predictions here.
• Check out college football predictions here.
• Hop over to our football blog here.
• Don't forget to visit our college football betting.
• Don't forget to visit our NCAA football ATS records.
• View NCAA football Game-of-Week Analysis here.
• Updated today: College football betting philosophy.
• Check out our updated NCAA football prior picks.
• View our 2007 NCAA football pick season results here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-18-2007
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NCAA-Football-Picks-November-30-2007
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NCAA-Football-Picks-November-29-2007
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NCAA-Football-Picks-November-23-2007
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NCAA-Football-Picks-November-15-2007
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