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December 29, 2006 |
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Below are the picks for all of the games on which we have an opinion through the end of this year.
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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Kentucky vs. Clemson (Friday 12/29 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Kentucky +9.5
These two teams had reverse seasons. Clemson looked like a team destined to be in the National Championship hunt initially as they opened 7-1, the lone loss on a missed extra point vs. BC. They were dominating on both sides of the ball as they gave up just 9.4 ppg in those 7 wins. Then the wheels fell off for this team. They get hammered at Virginia Tech 24-7, and it almost seemed like the dream was lost, and so was the season. They finished up just 1-3, and what was a defense at the top of the NCAA the first seven wins became ordinary, as they allowed 20.5 ppg in their last four games. The most striking part is two of the three losses were at home. Kentucky has been just the opposite, as it looked like another Kentucky type year, over-matched starting 3-4. Then the Cats finally got things together, a rather pourous defense became adequate enough for their high powered passing game to lead them to victory, as they finished 4-1. The lone loss was a 5 point defeat to Tennessee and one of the wins came against a tough Georgia team. They established they can play with competition on this level. Andre Woodson has had a big year. He has thrown for 3,216 yds. and just 7 INT'S, and 28 TD'S, good for the #12 passing attack in the country. It would be difficult to imagine Clemson will show up for this one, as they didn't show up after their National Championship hopes disapated, and with Kentucky playing so well down the stretch, the large helping of points looks good in this one.
Game: Missouri vs. Oregon State (Friday 12/29 2:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on Missouri +4
This is a game that features two QB'S that are at the top of their game. Missouri's Chase Daniel has thrown for 3,200 yds 26 TD'S and just 10 interceptions while Oregon State's Matt Moore has thrown for 2,666 yds 14 TD'S and just 6 INT'S with none in the last 5 games. The one weakness for Oregon State all season has been defending the pass, and that is exactly where Missouri's strength lies. This Missouri team averages nearly 30 ppg, and will bring in the nation's 14th ranked passing attack. The Beavers have struggled vs. teams that can throw the ball, and when they have met teams that will be playing in Bowls this season they give up 30ppg! It is one of the reasons why three of their wins have come by 3 points or less. They have had difficulty defending the pass. A Missouri team averaging 30 ppg vs. a defense that has yielded 30 ppg to Bowl teams, getting points, looks very attractive to us. We'll take them plus the points with an outright win is also quite probable.
Game: Minnesota vs. Texas Tech (Friday 12/29 7:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Minnesota +6.5 Pick: 2 units on OVER 66
This game looked unreachable for Minnesota after a 3-6 start. The Gophers went through a stretch of games that saw them go 1-5 with the lone win by a single point to lowly N. Dakota State at home. During that stretch they averaged just 14ppg. Then things began to change. They went on an offensive rampage in their last 3 games piling up over 42 ppg, and emerging 6-6 and a Bowl bid. Texas Tech has been a scoring machine over most of the past decade, and it has been no different this year. They y will bring the #3 rated offense into this matchup. Minnesota has averaged over 450 yards a game in their last three and Texas Tech is not a team known for defense. This looks like an old-fashioned shoot-out, and one of those Bowl games we have become to know over the years, where points ring up quickly. It should be entertaining and it also should be one of those games where the team with the ball last will have a chance to win it. With that said, we will take the nice cushion of points, and certainly the OVER as well.
Game: Iowa vs. Texas (Saturday 12/30 4:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Iowa +9.5
This one on the surface looks like a landslide win for Texas as Iowa did not have the type of season they expected. It isn't that easy. Texas fresh off a National Championship, was expected to compete again. They sat at 9-1 and lost unexpectedly to Kansas State and watched their slim back-to-back opportunity vanish. They proceeded to drop their next game as well in a lethargic offensive effort to A&M 12-7. Here is where Iowa gets interesting. They played three teams in the Big Ten that lost to no one but themselves (Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan). Two total losses. Iowa lost to Michigan in Ann Arbor by the fewest points of any Big-10 team. Iowa lost to Wisconsin by 3, closer than any team. Iowa scored 17 on Ohio State more than any team except Michigan. One could argue that Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin are the best three teams in the country, or at least close. Iowa played these teams tougher than anyone else. It tells us that Texas better be ready for a game here, and the logical side of us says they will not be. Coming off a National Championship, believing they could win another, then watching that go up in smoke at Kansas State and watching them lose again to A&M, this is not a motivational spot for Texas. We will grab the bushel of points, as Iowa will play tough in this one.
Game: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia (Saturday 12/30 8:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on Georgia +3 Pick: 2 units on UNDER 38
This should be the best Bowl game this side of New Year's Day, and maybe the best overall. This is a great matchup of teams that win and lose by field position, special teams, and defense. Georgia, outside a 51-33 game with Tennessee, is giving up a stingy 14 ppg, and Virginia Tech outside of a 38-27 game with Georgia Tech, is giving up just 7 ppg. Georgia has the #14 defense in the country, and Va Tech the #5 defense, so there isn't much to pick and choose between these teams. This will be a game played for field position and we don't expect the endzone to be very busy in this one. In a game like this, the special teams become very important. Georgia has Mikey Henderson who averages 15.6 yards per punt return, and has one for 86 yards. Georgia also has deeper range on field goal attempts as they have Hoit from 55 yards out, while this is an area that hasn't been great for Virginia Tech. The Hokies' longest FG of the season has come from just 42 yards. It looks like a game that may be field goal heavy, and Georgia has the edge there. They also get teh home-town advantage here. With the plus points we will take them and also the UNDER.
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