College Football Bowl Picks - December 27, 2009

The Bowls are here! Below are my picks for the games from December 19 through the 27th. The remaining picks will come out under this schedule:

Games from Dec 28-31: will be sent December 28th in the morning
Games on January 1: will be sent January 1 in the morning
Games from Jan 2-6: will be sent January 2 in the morning
National Championship game: will be sent January 6

Now on to the first set of games, in which I have nine picks... 

Did you know? We are on fire right now, enjoying one of the best runs in our 8 years in business. Over the past six weeks across all sports, we are 227-203 (58%) for +143.8 units (that's $14,380 for $100 players).

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	32-15 last 47 picks	68%	+$4530
CFB	9-2 last 11 picks	82%	+$2150
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	46-38 last 84 picks	55%	+$1710
NBA	22-13 last 35 picks	63%	+$1930
NHL	170-94 last 264 picks	64%	+$18300
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$42480

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Wyoming vs. Fresno State (Saturday 12/19 4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Wyoming +11 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

New Mexico Bowl - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM. Fresno State will be making their 10th Bowl appearance in the last 11 years, and their second straight trip to the New Mexico Bowl. They lost to Colorado State last year. It should also be noted that in the nine previous Bowls, the Bulldogs winning margin exceeded this pointspread just once, and that was a 12-point win. The Cowboys last appeared in a Bowl in 2004. They were posted as a 12.5 point underdog to UCLA and won the game outright. This will be just their second Bowl appearance since 1993. Wyoming was just 6-6 on the season, but they were 7-2 ATS in their final nine games and should be excited to be here. The public likes a team that can score and that can result in juiced lines. Fresno State certainly has shown that ability as they averaged 34.3 points per game this season. The problem for the Bulldogs is that they gave up nearly 28 ppg. They allowed 132 points in their last three! The Bulldogs won four of their last five to get here, but did not have a winning margin greater than 10 points in the process. Big underdogs in Bowls have a long history of getting the money as they usually turn out to be the more motivated team. The Bulldogs carry just an 8-22 ATS mark in their last 30 as a favorite while Wyoming has built off an ATS win to go 27-13 ATS in their next game. Fresno is just 2-11 ATS the past two seasons when coming off a road game, and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 50+ in their last game. Under Pat Hill, this team is 39-53 ATS as a favorite including 15-25 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. I think the points are too generous here.

St. Petersburg Bowl - Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FLA. The Central Florida Knights are looking for their first-ever Bowl win as they take on Rutgers. The difference in this game should come on the offensive side as both teams have defenses that are above average. The Knights finished dead last out of 120 teams in offense a year ago, moving up to No. 83 this year. That is a nice improvement, but the real story is that when they faced solid defenses they struggled mightily. Central Florida played against six teams heading to Bowls this season and the offensive numbers aren't pretty. Aside from a 32-point effort against offense-only Houston, UCF managed 21, 19, 14, 7, and 3 points against the other five, good for an average of just 12.8 ppg. That won't get it done vs. a Rutgers team that has been improving offensively, scoring 21 points vs. West Virginia, 28 vs. UConn and 31 vs. South Florida - the last three Bowl teams they have faced, good for an average of 26.7 ppg. Central Florida is 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Big East and the Scarlett Knights are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four Bowls. UCF is 2-3 on the road this season while Rutgers is 4-1 both SU and ATS away from home. I like the Knights here - the Scarlet ones.

POINSETTIA BOWL - Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA. The Utes have the longest Bowl winning streak of any team in college football, stringing together eight consecutive wins. Cal has the fourth-longest current streak at four, suffering their last loss in 2004. The Utes were expected to be down from a year ago, but this team never seems to fall too far. They were trounced by TCU (one of the top 5 teams in the country). In that game, they managed to score more points against the Frogs than any other team this season! The other two losses for Utah came to BYU in OT, and Oregon on the road by just 7, losing the "stats battle” by just 15 yards. The bottom line is that Utah has only lost to three good teams this year, taking care of business vs. everyone else. The Bears went into Oregon as well, but their fate was not nearly as impressive as they were destroyed 42-3. You have to question the motivation here for Cal as they have had several no-shows this season. The Bears only lost four games, but they lost those four games by a total of 115 points, or nearly 30 per game! They have either been superb, or extremely bad. I don't think drawing Utah in a Bowl game is going to get their attention, while the Utes always show up, Bowl game or not, and very rarely are not hanging around or winning. I like Utah in this one as Cal can't be trusted.

POINSETTIA BOWL - Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA. If there is a team that is capable of a no-show in the Bowl season, it would be California. This is a team that lost four games on the season, and the combined deficit of the four losses is an amazing 115 points, nearly 30 per game. Those losses came against mostly the top of the conference. This team has laid a lot of eggs this season, so one has to question the motivation facing a Utah team that doesn't exactly get them salivating to be here. Utah on the other hand, shows up for every game regardless of the competition, and played Rose Bowl bound Oregon evenly in the stats on the road. Cal never got in the end-zone and the Ducks hung 42 on them. Utah has the better defense and the better resume coming into this game. The only thing not as impressive is the name of their conference, but that shouldn' t bother us. I think Utah is the superior team and I like them to win this game.

The Hawaii Bowl - Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI. Who's more motivated for this one? This will be the fifth-consecutive Bowl appearance by the Wolfpack. They get a less-than-exciting opponent in SMU. The Mustangs haven't been to a Bowl since the program received the death penalty back in the mid 80s. That's nearly a quarter decade of waiting. There has to be a lot of excitement for this team, players and coaches to be appearing in a Bowl game and they should be more pumped than Nevada for this game. Nevada has had a top-10 offense for the last three years, but in spite of that, they were shutout in their Bowl two years ago, and haven't managed to win any of the three. The offense that has been devastating opponents in the regular season has yet to translate into a Bowl game. That potent offense has stalled averaging just 19.3 ppg in the last three Bowls. During the last three regular seasons, they averaged over 35 points per game. SMU really started putting things together late in the season as they won four of their last five, with the lone loss coming by just 3 points. They enter here with a 6-1 ATS mark in their last seven as a dog. Before the arrival of June Jones, this team went 58-153-3 with one winning record since the heyday in the 80s. In his first year, Jones went 1-11. Heading into this season, he set a goal of the Hawaii Bowl and he reminded his players nearly every week of that goal. He wanted to be here as a tribute to his friend and special teams coach Frank Gansz who died in April. This is a ton of points for a Bowl game. The Wolfpack has shown that their offense, after a month off, doesn't seem to perform at the same level in a Bowl game. Meanwhile, the Mustangs are excited to be here and have an emotional reason to show up big. I like the Mustangs in this one.

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl - Ford Field - Detroit, MI. This will be the fourth-ever Bowl appearance for Ohio. Unfortunately for the Bobcats, they have yet to win one. The fact is that current MAC Conference teams often appear amongst the 10 teams that have made at least one Bowl appearance, but have failed to record a win. Decent play in the regular season just hasn't translated. The list of 10 includes six MAC teams with a combined 0-15 mark in Bowl games. It certainly calls into question whether the Bobcats should be listed as the favorite here. When you consider the fact that their lone non-conference win this season against a FBS team came by a single point to a bad North Texas team, it certainly points in the other direction. The Bobcats scored less than 20 points in their MAC Championship game, and the last 34 times this team scored under 20, they have been a money-burning 9-25 ATS in their next game. The Bobcats have allowed their last five opponents to rack up an average of 158 yards per game on the ground. They have been the beneficiary of a lot of luck this season (38 opponent turnovers this season). While Ohio and the rest of the MAC have been starved for wins in Bowl games, the Herd is 5-1 ATS in their last six Bowl appearances as they seem to always be underestimated. I like Marshall here.

Mieneke Car Car Bowl - Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC. Bowl results very often come down to motivational factors. The Pittsburgh Panthers have really taken a step down from where they could be. This is a team that took on unbeaten Cincinnati for the right to play in the Sugar Bowl. In that game they scored the go ahead TD with just a minute and a half left, but missed the extra point! Wouldn't you know it, the Bearcats drove the field, tied the game and kicked the decisive extra point. What a blow for the Panthers. It would be a miracle if their "A" game followed them into this Bowl game. The Tar Heels bring one of the nations best defenses into this one, allowing just 16.9 points per game. They also get the luxury of playing in their own back yard in what will amount to a home game for them. The Heels offense really struggled early, but vastly improved down the stretch. The reason they won their last four ACC games, after an 0-3 start, was an improved offense. The Heels put up 31 and 33 in their last two ACC matchups. I don't deny that Pitt is the better team here, but the problem is that a Bowl team that is playing in a much lesser Bowl than they had thought, oftentimes lays an egg. The way Pitt lost and missed the Sugar Bowl will make it tough for them to put their full hearts into this one. N. Carolina is 13-4 ATS under Butch Davis vs. winning teams including 6-0 ATS vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 10+ ppg. Pittsburgh has now gone 38-62 ATS after a loss. North Carolina gets the call.

Emerald Bowl- AT&T Park - San Francisco, CA. The team with the most disappointing season this year in NCAAF has to be the USC Trojans. The Trojans were one of the teams picked to have a shot at the BCS Title game at the beginning of the season, but never lived up to the billing. They lost four games - one against lowly Washington and two others they lost by 24+ points each! If there is ever a team that is in the "Disappointment Bowl," the Trojans are at the top of that list. It seems clear now that the Trojans, by "potential" and reputation were overrated all season. They were installed as a favorite in all 12 of their games played this season. They managed to go just 3-9 ATS. Here they are again posted as a big favorite in a game where they have to be deflated to even be playing in. When you start the year thinking National Championship, the non-BCS Emerald Bowl just can't get you fired up. For Boston College, regardless of the year it has been for USC, they have to be salivating to play against one of the top programs in the country as the Eagles have feasted at Bowl time. The Eagles have made 15 Bowl appearances since 1985, having won 12 of them. They have won eight of their last nine with the only loss by 2 points. And, they are excited to be here. "I think it's good for our program. It's interesting, and I think it's good," head coach Frank Spaziani said. "Whenever you play somebody like that, it gets everybody's attention." The Trojans are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a favorite while the Eagles are 13-3 ATS spread in their last 16 as a dog of 3.5-10. I like Boston College in this one.

Music City Bowl - LP Field - Nashville, TN. Both of these teams had their sights set higher than this Bowl game but Clemson has to be the more dissapointed team as they were supposed to be great this year. The Music City Bowl isn't likely to get them very excited. The fact is, the Tigers have been overrated all season. Vegas predicted they would win 8.5+ games this season and they have gone just 8-5. The Tigers beat up on low-level competition but against Bowl teams, they were just 2-3 this season. The public likes Heisman-like players and Clemson has CJ Spiller. While he's a great player, he can't win games all by himself. While everyone assumes he will run all over the Kentucky defense here, I am not so sure, given their time to prepare. Kentucky put up a nice 7-5 mark, facing tougher competition in the SEC. They were 4-1 on the road while Clemson was just 2-4 on the road this season. The Wildcats have the better defense and an offense that rivals Clemson's. This is just too many points in a game that can go either way.

Results: 7-2

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• View NCAA football ATS records here.
• View guide to betting college football here.
• Read our Football spreads here.
• View our updated 2009 NCAA football preview.
• Take a look at our football handicapping for beginners here.
• Check out 2009 NCAA football season prior picks here.
• View college football prior picks here.
• View our updated blog football.
• View college football betting here.
• Here we show our Football Game Preview.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-10-2009
This is one of the greatest rivalries in all of sports, entering its 110th edition. Army has more at stake here than beating their arch-rival. A win makes them Bowl eligible and Temple would await the...

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-03-2009
Dan LeFevour is the MAC's all-0time leader in passing yards and he is the main reason the Chippewas are double-digit favorites here. His team scored 34.2 points per game this season and Ohio score...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-26-2009
Central Michigan has locked up the MAC West at 7-0 and will be likely playing 7-0 Temple for the MAC Title. The Huskies have had a good year at 7-4, and an eighth win could be enticing to Bowl Committ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-19-2009
How bad is it in Colorado? Really bad. No one but the clueless Colorado AD has any confidence in Dan Hawkins anymore. His record speaks for himself and the Buffs simply can't compete in the Big 12...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-18-2009
Central Michigan has a big date next week with Northern Illinois which could determine the team that plays Temple for the MAC Title. I wouldn't look for them to expend much energy here. Their offe...