Football And Picks - December 30, 2008

Our initial Bowl picks are ready! This year's picks will be broken up into four newsletters. Our first set, covering games through December 30th are below. We have eight picks including three 4-unit plays and a 5-unit play.

The next round of picks will cover the 12/31 and New Year's Day games and will be sent out early on the 31st so look for it then.

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: T C U vs. Boise State (Tuesday 12/23 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on T C U -3 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

This should be the top Bowl game prior to New Year's Day. Boise State is undefeated and TCU has just two losses that came to teams heading to BCS Bowls. The public has made their claim here, and it is of course with the seductive appeal of an unbeaten team with a great offense getting points. The Horned Frogs have assembled the best defense in the country this season. They went on the road early and held the Sooners who are putting up 60+ on everyone home or away, to 35. The Sooners could not sustain a single drive all game and had trouble reaching the red-zone. They won with raw speed and a pro-caliber QB that could get the ball downfield fast and accurately. Four of the Sooner TD's in that game came from outside the red-zone (they scored from 76, 63, 55 and 24 yards out). Their high powered running attack managed just 25 yards on 36 carries. The offense which averaged 30 first downs a game this season managed just 17 against TCU. The TCU defense allowed just 12 TDs in their other 11 games. That includes two on the road to a Nevada team that was averaging over 500 yards per game and 38 ppg. TCU held Utah, BYU and Nevada to a combined 34 points, with two of those games being played on the road. All four of the big offenses the Horned Frogs faced this year scored a season low in points against them. Bottom line? This defense is awesome! Boise State had the luxury fore most of the season of playing teams that were offensively challenged. When they went up against a good offense they struggled. They gave up 34 to Nevada and had to fight for their life at Oregon, who scored 32. TCU isn't just all about defense, they averaged over 30 ppg themselves. There is a reason TCU is favored over an undefeated team. They are better on both sides of the ball, and get the call here.

Miami has been a hard team to figure out offensively. They have used two QBs with neither being highly effective. They rank only No. 87 on offense basead on yards. Although that looks like this team wouldn't score, they average 28 points per game. The reason is pretty simple. Miami has put together some of the best red-zone numbers in the country where they have scored 41 out of 44 times. That is 93% of the time - good for a #5 ranking in the NCAA. They also have an excellent FG Kicker in Bosher who connected on 17 of 19 tries. So although the offensive rank is poor the offensive output is good with lots of hidden value. They have done a good job getting pressure on the QB, but have had some difficulty against the run. Part of that is due to large numbers run up by Georgia Tech and their unique triple-option offense. California is a very good running team at #5 in the country in rushing yards. Like Miami, Cal has been shuffling QBs and that weakness may allow Miami to stack the box and force this team into the air and out of their comfort zone. The offense has put up 33 points per game, but the PAC-10 is not loaded with defense. This is a good matchup, and I think Miami has a chance to win this game. At the very least, they stay within a score here, so I'll grab the points with the Canes.

These are probably the two most improbable teams to meet in a Bowl matchup. North Carolina State won their last four games and Rutgers won their last six to become Bowl eligible. In a way it is too bad that these teams are matched up as they have both been hot. For Rutgers, they certainly had much higher expectations coming into this season and although they had a strong finish this Bowl has to be considered a disappointment. NC State has not been to a Bowl since 2005 and is certainly more than excited to have run off four straight to get to a Bowl game. There is one huge factor that turned this NC State team around and that is Russell Wilson. The Wolfpack QB got spot duty early in the season, took over and led this team straight to this game. He posted 16 TD passes and had just one INT the entire season. One of the most predictive factors in a football game is turnovers and I'd rather have my money on a kid that has made one errant pass all season over a QB like Teel who has had some good games, but also has had some meltdowns, throwing 12 INTs. There is something about this Wolfpack team that you see in sports every once in a while, things that you can't quite put your finger on, but a certain set of intangibles that makes the team greater than the sum of its parts. They not only won their last four to get here, they covered their last seven and nine out of 10. That simply means even in their losses, which didn't occur down the stretch, no one was putting this team away, and I don't expect Rutgers will either. I'll take the points here and watch the Wolfpack do their thing.

This has to be a disappointing spot for the Tigers. They had a big season last year and expectations were high, expecting similar results this season. But they fell well short. This team has one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The expectation was that the offense was simply going to be unstoppable and outscore everyone. That was partially true, but what was not considered is the fact that their defense turned other offenses into juggernauts too. The Tigers, considered a top team, allowed 40 or more points four times on the season and top teams simply don't do that. This is a team that moves the ball for around 500 yards per game and averages 43.2 ppg, but had a time of possession deficit of 3.5 minutes per game. That meant that either the offense was scoring quickly or the defense couldn't get stops. The fact is that both are true. The defense finished the season at a disappointing #102 out of 120 teams and allowed 27.5 ppg. Northwestern did not get too much experience playing against big offenses this season playing in the Big-10. The Wildcats' offense has been somewhat effective, but overall ordinary. But they have shown the ability to put up points as they have topped the 30 mark three times and will undoubtedly have success moving the ball against the Tigers. Since Northwestern did not play Penn State, the only team they played with the type of speed Missouri has is Ohio State and they put 45 on the Wildcats. And, Missouri has even more weapons. This one stands to be a shootout and I like this one to go OVER the total.

After barely escaping their opener against Delaware 14-7, Maryland went on to lose their next game to Middle Tennessee State and it sure looked like a long season was in store for the Terps. But they posted some big wins and got here. The Terps have proven they can play with or lose to anyone. After those early losses they went out and beat a very solid California team and then beat Clemson - all over a three-week period. Then they get shut out by Virginia and the following week shut out Wake Forest by a similar margin. When they are focused they can not only play with anyone but beat anyone. When they are not, they can lose to anyone. This is a Bowl game and it is unlikely that they won't have their focus here which means the "good" Maryland team will show up here. The Wolfpack offense has put up some very impressive numbers in their conference games, but one has to suspect that those numbers may be a bit inflated and offering value on the other side here. This is a team that scored 38.1 ppg in their last eight games last year - mostly conference games. So when they and got to their Bowl game they were shutout! Maybe that could have been more predictable last year as their only game against a BCS school was Nebraska, where they scored the least amount of points they had all season at 10. This year we have references of two BCS teams on their schedule. They also happen to represent the two lowest offensive outputs of the season for the Wolfpack at 17 and 19 points. None of the defenses mentioned are powerful, but physically bigger and more athletic, with more depth. This may be a good offense which the public loves, which drives the line in their direction, but it hasn't been a smart choice with this Wolfpack team. They have yet to prove they can move the ball anywhere near as well stepping up to the BCS level. The Terps get the call here.

This may be one of the highest scoring Bowl games of the season. The Broncos scored 3+ TDs on all but one opponent this season, and over their last five games Rice scored five or more on everyone. With its late season surge, Rice vaulted itself into the top 10 in the NCAAF offensively, averaging 43.2 ppg. Western Michigan has certainly been no slouch as they finished at #29, scoring 30 ppg. Chase Clement has had an outstanding season for Rice, throwing for 41 TDs to just seven INTs, and rushing for 621 more. He has two potent weapons in Casey and Dillard that have combined for 183 catches, 2,441 yards and 31 TDs. That trio is basically the Rice offense. Tim Hiller has been equally impressive for the Broncos with 34 TDs and eight INTs against arguably better competition. The difference in this game is Hiller just has more targets to throw to than Clement, and a better defense to go with it. Although Rice has a big offense, their defense bad and negates most of the benefit from the high-octane offense. They rank in the bottom five of NCAAF and allow 35 ppg. Western Michigan is ranked #84, but allows just 23.8 ppg. Both of these teams are going to get their points, but when it comes time to get a critical stop or two, would you expect it from a team that allows 35 ppg and ranked fifth from the bottom? It's hard to put money on a team that can't stop anyone, no matter how good the offense is. I like this one to go OVER and and for the Broncos to come out on top.

This could turn out to be a very entertaining game. We have two teams that are equally powerful on offense ranking #7 and #8 in the country. Both are producing well over 40 ppg. Defensively they are both deep down the ranks at #81 and #87. Each defense is vulnerable to the pass as they rank 109th and 111th out of 120 teams. The Ducks have punished poor defenses all year, toppling the 60-point mark three times. Overall they have scored 54+ in five of their games and closed their season averaging 52 ppg in their last three and 60 ppg in their last two against a couple solid teams in Oregon State and Arizona. The Cowboys offense is superb too, having posted five games of 55+ points. In two of their last three games they surrendered 61 to Oklahoma and 56 to Texas Tech. This total may seem high, but the reality is that both these teams are good for 50 against the defense they will play against here. And neither team has shown the capacity to defend a good offense all season. I like this one to go OVER the total.

Results: 3-5

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Read our College football betting philosophy here.
• View our 2008 college football preview here.
• Read our college football Game-of-Week Analysis here.
• Hop over to our NCAA football prior predictions here.
• Check out football sports book here.
• View 2008 college football prior picks here.
• Don't forget to read our NCAA football ATS records here.
• Check out NCAA football spreads here.
• Hop over to our college football game picks here.
• View our football blog here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-December-05-2008
At the beginning of the year it looked as though this East Carolina team was going to be special. They had back-to-back eye-opening upsets over Virginia Tech, who's playing in the ACC Championship...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-27-2008
The Gamecocks are probably an offensive skill player and a QB away from being a great team. They rank 11th in the country on defense, despite getting blown out by Florida, who is doing that to everyon...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-25-2008
Northern Illinois will enter this one with the No. 21 ranked defense in the country allowing just 18.3 ppg. The fact that Navy will provide a one-dimensional attack should allow the Huskies to stack t...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-20-2008
Buffalo may be better than even their 6-4 record would indicate. Their four losses have come to Missouri, Pittsburgh, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. They have yet to lose to a team from the MA...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-18-2008
Kent State has not had a lot of success as they have lived and died by their talented QB Julian Edelman. Edelman leads the team with over 1,000 yards rushing and has thrown for 1,580 yards as well. Th...