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We are as excited as it gets for the start to the 2006/07 Bowl Season. Why? Because last year we started the season going 6-2. The year before that we started on an 8-0 run! We have always viewed these early games as soft and relatively easy to pick.

We have seven picks for the first set of Bowl games from December 19th through December 24th.

Wunderdog Picks Results Check out my 12-month performance here.

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The BCS - Did Michigan Get Robbed?

As the 2006 college football season has come to a close, and all the settled, two teams have risen to the top and will battle for the right to be called champion.

It is no surprise that that the Ohio State Buckeyes are there. After going wire-to-wire as the No.1 team in the land and being led by Heisman Trophy front-runner Troy Smith, the Buckeyes could have punched their ticket to Glendale, AZ., in October.

But, it was the match-up in November, with the Michigan Wolverines that has thrust this season’s BCS championship selections into upheaval well – the non-Buckeye’s half, anyway. Ohio State edged then No. 2 Michigan 42-39 and talk began of a possible re-match with the national championship hanging in the balance.

But, on a weekend where Michigan was idle, The University of Florida overtook the No. 2 spot with a win over Arkansas 38-28 in the Southeastern Conference Championship. The victory earned the Gators a ticket to the BCS title game. So instead of the 104^th meeting between the two storied programs of Ohio State and Michigan, we get the first ever meeting of Ohio State and Florida.

Seems clear enough, right? Not so fast...

Read the rest of this article and other interesting takes at our sports blog: http://www.freeunderdog.com/blog/

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: N. Illinois vs. T C U (Tuesday 12/19 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on N. Illinois +12

TCU will be making its seventh Bowl appearance in the last eight years. Last year a 36-ayrd TD pass with 10 seconds left in the game kept N. Illinois out of a Bowl. The word that comes to mind when thinking of TCU this year is defense. They have put together a top 10 defense, and have allowed just 67 yards per game on the ground. N. Illinois feartures one of the top backs in the country in Garrett Wolfe, who gained over 1900 yards this year. There are a lot of similarities to this year's TCU team to last years team. They entered their Bowl game last year having outscored their opponents 244-79 over the last seven games, and this year they enter having outscored their opponents 223-70 over the last six. But last year they ended up giving up 24 in their Bowl game, and to us it is a factor of the conference they play in. They have had only two games on their entire schedule that featured a team with even a semblance of a balanced offense. Those two teams were BYU (#61 rush #5 pass), and Utah (#65 rush #45 pass). It must be noted those teams put up 51 points on TCU and it was also TCU's two losses on the season. A look at the other games tells a story that questions the validity of the defense, much the same as last year. They had just one other game against a team that could run the ball but that team (Air Force) is one dimensional and does not throw the ball. The other games with national ranking in terms of rushing yards per game (keep in mind there are 130 teams in Division 1A): Baylkor (130), Texas Tech (123), UNLV (119), New Mexico (106), Colorado State (124), San Diego State (97), Army (81), Wyoming (75). Those eight teams average ranking #107 or in the bottom 20% on average in the country! There is not a single team that is even in the top 50% in the country. N. Illinois will bring in the most balanced attack they have seen this season, as the Huskies are ranked #21 rushing the ball and #62 passing the ball. TCU could pay if they decide to load up the box to stop Wolfe. The point is these types of teams are what has caused the two losses by TCU, and a similar result last year, with similar lofty stats on the defensive side of the ball, with the Frogs giving up 24 in their Bowl game. This is just too many points in what we consider to be a very competitive game, so we will jump on the Huskies. N. Illinois has been 6-1 ATS as a double digit dog last 7, and 13-3 ATS as a dog of any kind. Finally, they have a big yards per rush advantage and we're getting 12. Take N. Illinois!

BYU had a remarkable season and their offense really got things going and never really stopped. It took a lot of pressure off an average defense. Oregon came out of the gate very fast, and at the end of the year just couldn't hold onto the ball and dropped their last three. BYU is suspect to us. They have benefitted from a soft schedule, having faced off with just three Bowl teams in Tulsa, BC, and TCU. Tulsa, and TCU aren't what you would call national programs, and they lost to B.C. BYU benefitted not only from a much weaker schedule than Oregon, but a +13 turnover ratio. This will be one of the first teams they face all year that is good on both sides of the ball. Oregon has had a very difficult schedule, as they have played six Bowl teams in all. This team piled up 501 yards on a strong Oklahoma defense, and won the game inspite of commiting four turnovers to Oklahoma's one. Oregon outgained 10 of 12 opponents on their schedule, and if it wasn't for 30 turnovers the end result would be much different. It is hard for a team to work on things while playing every week. But when you have a month to prepare, more often than not, those problems can be solved. Oregon brings in a #37 rated defense, and a #10 rated offense that would no doubt be in the top 3 if they limited their turnovers. They outgained 11 of the 12 opponents on their schedule, yet lost 5 games. The better team is the underdog here. It's the turnovers have killed this team all season, as they committed a total of 30, and were negative in the turnover battle in 7 of their games. We even feel they can even survive a small turnover deficit, and still win or cover this one. They did it against Oklahoma, they did it against Washington, they did it against UCLA, and still won. Despite their turnovers, the Ducks still managed to put up 31.2 ppg. BYU has been just the opposite. Their offense has been precision, carving up every defense in its path, and has only turned it over 11 times on the season, and they have played nine games turning the ball over one time or less. This has given an already potent offense that has averaged 40 ppg over its last nine the potential to maximize its efforts. This should be the highest scoring Bowl game this side of the Pacific Ocean. Both teams can score in a hurry, and neither is lethal on the defensive side of the ball. BYU has seen its games go OVER the total to the tune of 29-11 after a SU win, and Oregon has gone OVER in 7 of last 8 off a SU loss. Watch the scoreboard light up in this one and look for the better team to prevail. Take the OVER and Oregon with the points. Those looking for a nice payday should consider a money-line play on Oregon paying around +150 to +160.

Troy enters still looking for its first Bowl win as their only game was a 2004 loss to N. Illinois 34-21. Rice has not made a Bowl appearance since 1961, and they have not won a Bowl game since 1953. Each of these teams loaded up the early part of their schedules with heavyweights. They took some big losses and got off to bad starts, but they used the experience to get better, and each will come in with strong winning streaks in hand. Troy has won 6 of 7, while Rice enters having won 6 in a row. We think the one problem Troy faces in Rice is a team that is much better than what they have seen since late September. In contrast, Rice has had some challenges such as Tulsa. Rice is a very balanced team offensively as they throw and run equally, where Troy is more dependant on the air attack. The problem is they have virtually an equal amount of TD passes as they do INT'S and they can't afford any mistakes against this Rice team or they will be in for a long night. We like the balance of this Rice team, and the fact that they have had more challenges all season long, to be the difference here. Troy is just 3-4 away from home this year scoring 15.9 ppg. That won't cut it here.

This should be a very good competitive game. These teams have one thing in common, but with a different result. E. Carolina gave W. Virginia its toughest game of the year, holding them to 27 points, and just 143 rushing yards on 42 carries. S. Florida did them one better holding W. Virginia to 19 points and winning the game, but without White at QB. Still a great job. James Pinckney dictates things on offense for E. Carolina he has thrown for nearly 8,000 yards at E. Carolina, and 2,600+ this year. S. Florida's team changed when Matt Grothe was given the QB job. He is a great runner and a good but sometimes erratic passer. Neither of these teams excel as much on the offensive side of the ball as they do on defense. This one should be a very tight contest, and from our perspective to close to call. We will tune in and watch what should be an entertaining comtest but we'll pass on making a pick.

New Mexico will be in its fourth Bowl this decade and will be looking for its first win. San Jose St. has not been to a Bowl since 1990 when they defeated C. Michigan. They are fresh off a superb effort as they almost beat Boise State falling 23-20. But don't get overly excited about that game as the last time they had Boise at home two years ago they were +33 and lost in double overtime. That was a 2-9 San Jose State team vs. a #14 Boise St team. Last year they played them to within 17 at Boise, again as a +30. They just play well against the Broncos. We know lots of people will look at that game and be on San Jose State here. New Mexico is lucky enough to get this Bowl game in their home Stadium, so there will certainly be a bias of fans rooting for the hometown boys. It again comes down to balance in this game. San Jose State is a run-first team, and that is what New Mexico does best on defense. New Mexico is better at defending the run than the pass. San Jose State is vulnerable on the defensive end, and this year New Mexico switched from a run based offense to a pass based offense. We believe they will be able to move the ball through the air, especially in a comfortable atmosphere, which takes some of the Bowl jitters away. We like the favored "home" team in this one.

These teams both bring into this game very competent Quarterbacks. Utah is led by Brett Ratliff who has passed for over 2,500 yards 22 TD'S and 8 INT'S. Tulsa has Paul Smith who has thrown for over 2,500 yards, 15 TD'S and 8 INT'S. We have to call that battle a dead heat! The problem Utah has is that it doesn't have a running back to really call dependable, with Brett Ratliff is second on the team in rushing yards with just 225. Tulsa is a bit more balanced, as they don't have a big-time back, but have gotten it done by committee. Utah does a better job at defending the pass, but without a running threat, it will allow Tulsa to drop back in coverage, to negate any advantage. The Utes come in with an impressive 20-6 ATS vs non-conference opponents, while Tulsa comes in with an 8-2 ATS mark after allowing less than 20 points in its last game. This one is virtually a pick-em game, and we feel it could go either way as well, so this one is one that should be fun to watch. Pass.

What can you say about the #1 offense in NCAA football? Arizona St. will represent one of the toughest teams Hawaii has played all season and it should make for a high scoring affair. We are not going to try to downplay Hawaii's offense. That would not be very responsible of us. But we can point out some key differences when playing a reasonable defense, as opposed to the lousy ones that are stamped all over their schedule. We will start with the fact that against non-Bowl teams they averaged 56.1 ppg and vs Bowl teams a much lower 33. In fact, vs. those Bowl opponents they were outscored 34-33. There are 119 ranked defenses in the NCAA and five opponents on Hawaii's schedule were in the bottom 10. Arizona St. ranks #34. So while we expect Hawaii to score, they will not stop Arizona St. either. The defense that Arizona State brings will slow Hawaii down enough. Hawaii has no defense so ASU should be able to match the Rainbows score for score. Getting over a TD thus presents nice value. Hawaii has gone OVER on the season in 9 of last 10, they have gone OVER at home in 21 of the last 27, and 27 of the last 35 played at night. They have been an OVER team in 40 of their last 59 games period, and we have a system that kicks in here that is better than 60% to the OVER as well. Arizona St. against good offenses? Oregon is in the top 10, and they got 48 on them. California is #16 they got 49. Oregon St. is #38 passing and scored 44! Take both the OVER and ASU in this one.