Betting Football Ncaa Pick - December 28, 2007

Let the Bowling begin!

We will be breaking out bowl picks this year into four separate newsletters. This first newsletter covers bowl games from December 21 - 28.

On December 29th we'll send out the next set which will cover the games from December 29th through the 31st. Early on January 1st we'll send out the picks for the Jan 1-6 games and we'll finsh up with our National Championship pick sent on the 7th.

We kick off with 5 picks...

Today's NCAA Football Picks:

Game: Navy vs. Utah (Thursday 12/20 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 65 -110

The Bowl season gets underway with the Poinsettia Bowl as Navy faces off vs Utah. Utah has been on a roll after a slow start. Most of what they accomplished this season was on the defensive end. The Utes did not put a single player on the All-MVC first team. Their defense is their calling card, as they finished ranked 3rd in the nation, allowing just 15.6 ppg. The Navy rushing offense again tops the nation but they played a very soft schedule this year. Navy scored 41 ppg when they played teams that have a combined record of 20-64. But they scored just 26.3 ppg vs. teams with a combined record of 23-13 (Ball State, Wake Forest and Air Force). Those three teams are all Bowl teams and none have the defensive credentials that does Utah. Utah has allowed just 30 points total in their last four games, which includes 17 to nationally ranked BYU. The added wrinkle here is that Utah has a defensive advantage most teams don't have when facing Navy in a Bowl game. The Utes have experience against the triple option. Utah plays against Air Force every season, and this year held the 2nd ranked rushing offense to 20 points. And, that was before the defense was coming together. Last year, with most of these same defensive players Utah held Air Force to 14! Utah does not have a big offense, so the total here looks very high, and that is based on Navy's reputation to run. But the Navy opponents have for the most part been amongst the worst in the country stopping the run. Of 120 teams in NCAA football, Navy faced run stop units ranked 118, 116, 112, 100, 96 and 85. That's hardly any resistence. This will be a much tougher venue to put the points on the board needed to make this go over, so we will back the UNDER here.

The New Orleans Bowl will feature the Florida Atlantic Owls making their Bowl debut vs the Memphis Tigers. This one has the potential to be the highest scoring Bowl game of the season. Memphis put the ball in the air over 500 times this season and during the second half of the season the offense clicked to the tune of 36 ppg. The problem was they couldn't stop anyone either, allowing 34 ppg. Their last six games produced 70 ppg, and on the season their games averaged nearly 900 total yards. Florida Atlantic is a mirror image of Memphis. They also put the ball in the air nearly 500 times and saw their last six games average over 70 points per game, and all going OVER the total. The combined yards in their games was 830! We have two teams that love to throw the ball long distance, and often, with neither team having shown the capacity to stop what the other does. Just to give you an idea, Florida Atlantic games have seen 20 TD's scored this season from 30 yards or longer, not to mention three special team gaffs that resulted in three TD's. Memphis has seen its games produce 30 TD's from outside the red-zone! They have also produced five TD's with special team gaffs or turnovers. Overall these teams have produced 58 TD's from outside the red-zone, and eight more from turnovers or special teams, for a total of 66 scores from anywhere on the field TD'S. We like the OVER here.

Boise State in this game will return to the place they have bad memories. They still have a sour feeling based on losing here to Hawaii earlier this season. That loss cost the Broncos a WAC title and a better Bowl. BSU is used to playing up (i.e. Oklahoma last year) in the Cinderalla role, so this Bowl game is not something that will hold their attention. East Carolina sure didn't look like a Bowl team early as they started off bad at 1-3, but really came on at the end to secure a Bowl bid. Things have been very out-of-sorts for Boise State. The schedule of this Bowl game and travel plans have caused a lot of problems, and this team may very well be out of focus. Many of the team's players had to reschedule exams to make the pre-Christmas trip to Hawaii. Some players schedules are too crowded to complete exams, resulting in an athletic department representative proctoring exams in Hawaii. None of this bodes well for the focus on this game. This simply is not the Boise State team we are used to to begin with. Although the overall numbers may say so, the schedule says otherwise. This is a team that went off as a -24.5 favorite in five games and -16.5 in a 6th. They played a non-division 1A team in Weber State as well. They averaged 54.3 ppg in those games while allowing 59 TOTAL points! They outgained these opponents 563 yards to 284. The reasonably competitive games on their schedule tell a completely different story. These five games saw Boise State go from 54.3 ppg to 26.6 ppg. The 9.8 ppg allowed rose to 22.8 ppg. They outgained these teams by just 25 yards per game instead of almost 300. The bottom line is, East Carolina will be a much more competitive game than most expect. And coach Skip Holtz relishes in the dog role, as his teams are 16-6 ATS as a dog. There's a good chance that Boise is both distracted and unmotivated for this one. If that pans out, it should be a very close game.

The Motor City Bowl features Purdue vs C. Michigan, two teams that met earlier in the season in a game that went decisively in favor of Purdue 45-22. So what has changed to make us like C. Michigan? Lots. Purdue got out of the gate very fast starting 5-0. Then came the two games on the schedule vs. Michigan and Ohio State - both losses. The Boilermakers recovered, winning their next two to stand at 7-2. They were poised for a good finish and big Bowl at perhaps 10-2. It never happened! Purdue lost the last three games, making their finish 2-5. The limp into this minor Bowl game, wondering what could have been. How do you get motivated for a team you beat by 23 at home and actually led 38-0, especially when it is more like the Disappointment Bowl? We have seen teams such as this in the past show no interest, and find themselves in a battle. The good news is that C. Michigan moved the ball in that first game to the tune of 465 yards on the road. C. Michigan has played much better, having won four of their last five to get here. They are excited and looking for revenge! Purdue has done a horrible job as a favorite of 3.5-10 points, as they have fallen on 10 of their last 14 in that role. They are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last six Bowl appearances. C. Michigan on the otherhand is 23-7 ATS in their last 30 overall. The public is all over Purdue, as this one looks easy, but the line keeps falling, showing larger chunks of money towards CMU. We like the motivated dog here vs an unmotivated opponent.

Maryland faces Oregon State in the Emerald Bowl. Maryland eeked out a Bowl bid with a 6-6 record. Most of what they have done well this year has been on the defensive side of the ball. They are very balanced, bringing in the the 43rd ranked defense in the country that is 48th vs the pass and 46th vs the run. Oregon State finished strong winning six of their last seven. It must be noted however that this team showed lots of struggles against good stop units. They scored 3 vs. USC, 14 vs. a healthy UCLA and 3 at Cincinnati. Three of their four losses came by over 20 points, so the consistency truly has been lacking. Maryland has a huge offensive line and it showed itself when they exposed a quick, but small Rutgers team. They will have to go to the air to win this one, as Oregon State is big against the run, but suffers defending the pass. Maryland's passing offense is superb, having completed over 65% of its passing attempts this season, and the game plan is surely going to be leaning that way. Oregon State has suffered against teams willing to throw a lot. Not too many teams have taken this Maryland team out easily, as four of the losses have been by one possession. We like them to stay in this one and keep the final down to one possession, so the points look good to us.

Results: 3-2

NCAA Football Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our Football spreads here.
• View our updated 2007 college football team previews.
• View our updated football pick great bet.
• Take a look at our college football picks blog here.
• Don't forget to visit our sportsbook reviews college football.
• Check out college football against-the-spread records here.
• Check out Football Game-of-Week-Preview here.
• Here we show our College football betting philosophy.
• View our NCAA football prior predictions here.
• Don't forget to read our 2007 NCAA football picks season results here.

Check out the last five NCAA Football Picks Newsletters:

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-30-2007
This game is for all the marbles in the Sun Belt, with the winner moving on to the New orleans Bowl vs Memphis. Florida Atlantic comes in with valuable experience gained in games vs South Florida, Okl...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-29-2007
This has been a very disappointing season for Louisville. What was thought to be National Champion contender has fallen far below expectations. Rutgers is probably right where they should be, although...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-23-2007
It's been over a decade and a half since the Virginia Cavaliers mattered in College Football. They now host a very important game against their hated cross-state rival for a trip to the ACC title ...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-15-2007
Throw out the records when these teams square off, because they ultimately don't decide the issue. Prior to the season starting, this game was supposed to be a game featuring two potentially undef...

NCAA-Football-Picks-November-13-2007
These teams are even in many ways. Both come in at 5-5 and the series is about even, with Toledo up 16-15. The Rockets have been the hotter team of late, but it certainly has nothing to do with their ...